A Touch Of Frost Possible

Good Monday, everyone. We have a much colder setup across Kentucky as we kick off a brand new week. This chilly brand of air may produce some patchy frost out there over the next couple of mornings. I’ll focus on that and the end of the month pattern that will try to make things interesting.

Highs today are generally in the upper 50s across the central and east, with 60-65 in the west.

Clear skies, low humidity levels and light winds will team up to allow temps to drop into the upper 30s for many areas by Tomorrow morning. The colder valleys may drop into the low and middle 30s, leading to some frost on the pumpkins.

Tuesday looks awesome with highs in the 60s under mostly sunny skies. A few mid and upper 30s may show up again by Wednesday morning.

The rest of the week sees the amazing fall weather rolling on as temps slowly warm. We should be in the 70s into the start of the weekend, but a cold front likely crashes in from the west by Sunday or  Monday…

That’s an interesting setup with a decent front dropping in and an upper level low spinning to our southwest. Two things could happen with that… It could get swept up into our region… Or it could head into the Gulf and form some type of hybrid system.

Later next week into the closing days of October could feature a deep trough digging into the eastern half of the country. This is something we have talked about for many days now, as the pattern favors this…

Another teleconnection for this deep eastern U.S. trough comes from the western Pacific. That’s where we have a typhoon being forecast to recurve…

At the same time, we see the PNA going positive and the NAO going negative…

A positive PNA sends a ridge up the western part of North America, allowing cold air to filter into the east. This graphic illustrates what I’m talking about…

The Negative NAO throws some blocking into the mix near Greenland, also helping to send colder air into the eastern half of the country.

Just how cold and how prolonged all this is remains to be seen, but winter weather loves have got to love the look of the pattern as we head closer to winter.

I will try to update things later today, so check back.

Make it a good Monday and take care.

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11 Responses to A Touch Of Frost Possible

  1. Scott King says:

    Thanks for info Chris.

  2. JJTeach says:

    Certainly looks interesting! I wonder how many states east of the Miss river will see snow by Halloween? Wouldn’t that be fun!

  3. Matt says:

    Everyone enjoy the beautiful, dry fall weather.

  4. Mike S says:

    During the past 123 years, Louisiana went from the second wettest August ever to the driest September on record. They needed that.

  5. Virgil says:

    If the temps must turn colder, I just hope it stays colder…This back and forth is murder on my immune system

  6. Lorie says:

    Looks like we’re in for a nice Autumn week

  7. Mike S says:

    Lexington has not recorded a top ten coldest season since the Autumn of 2012. The only other instance of a top ten coldest season in the 21st century was the summer of 2004. The last top ten coldest winter was 1979, one of my analog years I’m tracking.

    • Jamie says:

      We just need it cold long enough to kill the bugs this Winter. Otherwise, we’ll get overrun!

    • Chris Bailey says:

      It’s not by coincidence that the Temperature at KLEX started reading MUCH warmer in 2013 and continues to do so. The NWS simply doesn’t care enough to fix it.

  8. Troy says:

    That pattern would look really great December-February, but October…not so much as the pattern is just as likely to flip back warm in the actual winter months.

    • Terry says:

      I agree with your statement and would rather see this pattern setup about 6 more weeks in the future. I am sick of Happy Hot Holidays and would like to see this upcomin pattern remain costant for Thanksgiving through winter…time will soon tell!

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