Good Saturday, winter weather lovers. We have a major winter storm set to impact the state late tonight through Sunday evening. I don’t have any major changes to my train of thought with this system, but I do have a few cosmetic changes to the snowfall map.
These changes are routine and I will have more to come as this storm gets closer and shows itself a little better. Here’s my latest forecast…
The differences to that map are rather modest when compared to my earlier call. I did push the lines a little farther to the south, but not by much. I also freshened up the totals a bit to reflect current data trends. Overall… my confidence is rather high.
Here’s how your friendly weather dude sees things…
– Temps today will hit the 50s with an increase in clouds. It won’t feel much like a winter storm is approaching. Enjoy it!
– Light rain will move in from southwest to northeast late tonight and will quickly change to snow by daybreak Sunday. This process may take just a little longer in the far southeast and that’s something to watch for.
– There will be a super-duper sharp cutoff to the northern edge of the accumulating snows. This is the one area I am not very confident in, at all. I can honestly see how this moisture gets much farther north than the line I have and there are a few models showing this. Wherever it sets up… it will be very distinct.
– Heavy, wet snow will really get going Sunday into Sunday evening across southern and eastern Kentucky, especially. This is the area that can get slammed by this storm. If these totals are realized… downed trees and power lines will be possible.
– Snow will gradually taper off from west to east Sunday evening and night.
Today will feature multiple updates and a likely tweet storm. I will have, at least, two more updated snowfall maps coming your way before the first flakes start flying. I can assure you there will be changes to the map you see above. That’s always the case in snow forecasting. 😉
Check back for updates and have a great Saturday. Take care.
No threat mode yet?
Meant to say alert mode.
Like what chris is saying. IMO the totals increase, hopefully we are looking at 5-10 in central ky before all is said and done.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the 1-4 inch line will be the most snowfall any part of KY will get before it’s all said and done.
I am not greedy I will take three inches in Louisville. Hope against hope for a northwest trend.
Amen to that! I dont care, three inches of wet snow is gorgeous and I wanna take some pictures!
I sure hope my back yard stays in the 6-12″ zone…so far so good…
I’m with you Tim. I would love if that 6 – 12″ zone stays over of me. I haven’t seen 12″ since the Christmas Storm of 2007 or 2008. Can’t remember which year. I lived in Hamilton, Ohio and the city was shut down because the road crews refused to plow the streets. We had over 22″ of snow. I am sure the whole country heard about that. The road crews were mad at the major and refused to do anything. LOL They got their point across…ANYWAYS….BRING ON THE SNOW!
THINK SNOW!!
There is some good news in Louisville,the bridge has now open.
A pleasant surprise, great.
Along with financial incentives for the contractors, guess the mild winter weather helped to speed up repairs. Only used it twice in my life, but the Sherman Minton is a very elegant looking bridge.
That is definitely some good news.
Just saw your comment, Mark. If this mild winter is good for something, the Sherman Minton bridge reopening this soon would be that.
Really can’t tell but looks like the Euro moved ever so slighty NW..Maybe one of the experts can confirm..Time for bed..see what tomorrow will bring..
euro trended northwest again. Snow does fall for most of us with a nice hit in eastern KY.
here is a model that the WeatherNation TV is using. It cuts down on the totals big time. In reality I think this may be more like what people will see
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10150682017084874&set=a.10150418559044874.411565.129524519873&type=1&theater
Already some Flood Warnings/Flash Flood Warnings in Texas and Louisiana, to add to the abundance of flood watches along the coast. Wonder if this could steal some energy from our wx. Anyway, running out of energy myself, time to hit the sack.
24 hours ago I was saying 4-7 inches for Lexington/Danville region.
Based on what I have looked at the last 24 hours I am afraid I have to come way on down.
1-4 max for Lex to Danville and I feel that is optimistic.
Folks, cky not out of the ball game yet. 6z nam shifts north. Has my area, SE Fayette in the 6-8 in. range. GFS coming out soon. Let’s hope it shifted north also. Talk about suspense. Love it! 🙂
I’m still holding to my first call. I expect the NAM to overcorrect and so forth for the next couple of runs. Main concern will be the delayed onset of precipitation changeover during Sunday.
Wet, relatively warm ground should eat away at snow totals some. Heavier snows will overpower this eventually. If this was at night, we would be looking at even higher totals than initially thought.
Still, this should be a ‘big deal’ for many.
tx MIKE S.
ole BAILEY BOY u are the man up this morning updating things.
just been to warm, and dont look like temps will get below freezing, so u will see some HEAVY SNOW u aint seen in awhile to get 5 or 6 inches.
like MIKE said if it been at nite or colder, WOW is all rolo could say. but were going see some funky snow falling for sure in east/se ky/
man look at that booger crank up, this a monster storm. look at sat/radar!!
hey
Anyone seen the 6z gfs? Please update!!!!
For some reason it’s not coming out yet. Should have already been out. Will check on it in a bit.
Ok thanks james. Really enjoy reading your thoughts, and seen where you said the 6z nam shifted north, which is great! The gfs not coming out adds to that suspense you were talking about 😉 LOL
The 06Z GFS will be delayed. There are communication issues up in DC which caused the 06Z runs to stop. Look for a 1-2 hour delay.
Thanks mj. See where it’s just starting now. Where do you think it will shift?
I think models will shift back north and give us a good snow. Could be bigger than many think, you never know 😉
Chris took Georgetown out of the snow zone, time to move along to the next ankle biter threat. In 9 years of living here, we have never seen more than 4 inches on the ground. Cincy and Louisville have both had storms of 20+ inches, eastern and southern KY have seen 10+ during that time frame, but nada, zilch, no go for this area. The Snowdome lives.
6z nam doesn’t look bad http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_48HR.gif
Did I read that correct? Mercer county is in the 6 to 8 range?
Thank you BTW for sharing 🙂
I’m not very sure where it is, sorry. But it did shift north so yes I would say so
You guys are going LOVE this! The GFS & NAM are not responding now because of a communications failure. IBM in Washington is trying to fix this. But if they don’t the future runs including the 06z GFS will be worthless. It is 1950 all over again, ha. This was found out by Wave3 Meteorologist Brian Goode. Also, I hope everyone realizes nothing is agame for 4″+. given yet. I am surprised CB has high confidence. The storm has slowed down considerably & might not even make it til Sunday afternoon or evening! This is a major factor in forecasting this mess. IMO all of KY is still in the
supposed to have at the end “game still for 4″+. Have faith…this WILL bring surprises.
well hard at work looking over races, u guys stay focused today.
ill say CBIV DE VO right it has slowed down from what it was 2 days ago. it be afternoon 12 tomm before ALOT in SE and E get switch over and that could be bad as the storm IMO speeds up as it moves in here.
Is there a Rolo to English translator around here?
like what i see with the storm as the northern and NW eadge starting to really develop.
today song is
ROLLON / 18 wheeler!! ROLL ON!! by ALABAMA.
Im staying bold with my forecast.
I am right with ya! Do you see just how much moisture is coming out of Texas? whoa buddy! lol
yeah really! I hope this works, cause this is a link to my forecast map. http://fbcdn-sphotos-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/397062_2389513395510_1781115305_1526243_1416397121_n.jpg
I hope your map is right, but I just can’t see us getting that much. Who knows though. Just have to see when it’s all said and done. Good luck to us.
Larkin….you need tooling your blog to your name on here like you used to. I can’t find it anymore.
tooling was supposed to be: “to link”
Much appreciated for the thoughts about my blog, but I have little time to do my blog anymore :/ so I just post long thoughts here!
oh ok…i seen your snow map. so thought it was still up. I like the totals. my gut keeps telling me these numbers will all shift north & west. 0z run tonight will be the tell all on who gets this crazy storm pegged!
Once again. KY/TN Boader and KY/WVA boarders will get the brunt of the snow. I don’t see anyone north of 64 from Lex getting any snow at all. WKY mostly rain. Will wait and see.
No snow for Louisville from the get go so not disappointed.
Have a great day
reverse psychology on Mother Nature….I like it Bjenks! I think she blinks first. ha
after looking at things if we see 4 inches oon high end will be VERY LUCKY,
if we had a NORMAL wionter temp wise last few weeks then it be on like DONKEY KONG as 35 degrees is a GREAT BIG SNOW TEMP wise.
by time it goes to snow and then u have give time for it to overcome the grund, then i see a 2-4 inch snow POSSIBLE area WIDE.
I was thinking and hoping we get colder after precip starts but i dont find that. SEVERE WEATHER in south will be BIGGEST STORY with this storm as it looking interesting down there.
see u guys later, hey there always next winter for the OLD SCHOOL.
my waffles taste good this morning
Hope you’re wrong ROLO, respectfully, of course. I’m still hoping we get some decent accumulations here in Johnson County….can’t wait to hear CB’s opinion.
No offense Rolo, but I’m not sure where I’ve seen more ups and downs-being married to my wife for nine years or reading your posts. You flip flop more than any normal human being. One minute it’s old school, next it’s crying in your beer time.
Rolo, you were selling this event big time yesterday and last night and put money in the bank 😉
Rolo timeline :
Old school!……..almost old school……….not old school
In the earlier days you and I have been on the same page, but you have drifted on me. Avoid Lucy’s football 😉
Have went from a possible 8-10(per NAM), to 3-6(Chris’s first call), to 1-4 (Chris’s second call) here in Morehead. I am begining to think this one will be a bust, hope I am wrong..
Why is everyone else total for southeast ky so much lower than chris baileys
One of three things:
1. Hubris
2. CB will downgrade soon
3. They are all wrong and he is right (has happened before)
We have so many armchair mets on here, it’s not funny.
Well, the 50% chance of snow for Sunday has been changed to a 50% chance of rain/snow. The discussion from NWS Paducah says that it will be more rain than snow, if it snows at all.
Paducah’s NWS disco this morning is pathetic. They downplay this storm into nothing when there is much possibility with it.
im telling you guys dont get to excited…… i have updated my call from a dusting to a inch here in bell co. i just think it will take longer than expected for it to change over and then with it changing over in the daytime hours will not give it much of a chance to add up!
This from the NWS Louisville this morning:
…ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY…
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF STATES IS SCHEDULED TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD CENTRAL KENTUCKY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DESPITE INITIALLY WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT…SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY. THE
HIGHEST TOTALS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. HOWEVER…THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND HOW FAST THE RAIN
CHANGES TO SNOW.
THIS SNOW MAY LEAD TO TRAVEL PROBLEMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. BE SURE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THE
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AND USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING THIS WEEKEND.
that is the same statement as it was 18 hours ago. They may want to change sat eve to Sunday afternoon lol. the thing is still in Mexico.
Really? It said 6:18 this morning?
yes they keep time stamping their update. But, it is just a new time. It is word for word what they said yesterday, lol
Just going to sit back and wait and see what Chris says, and TG as well, and see what happens. Still not real excited, but, am hopeful. We will see. Have a great Saturday, all and GO CATS!!!!!
yeah, im with you, NWS is just giving 3-5″ for my area, and the mention of sleet is in the forecast as well…which would cut down on snow accumulations… UGH!!..there are always 10 million factors that have to come together just right for snow around here anymore…
I’m calling for 1 inch of rain and 2 inches of snow
I LOVE THIS FORECAST!!!!! 🙂
no OOOfdense taken.
I still think the snow map is on the high side for all folks not due east, south east and the low range is probably the high, in correlation to this (the lows are the highs the further west, north west you go).
Looking at what the local mets say, they agree this morning and if they are all wrong, this will be known as the “ankle biter of 12”, instead of the dusting of 98.
surprise !! we could get nothing or we could get WSW as it developes right over us.. I.E.- 1998 dusting lol
..THOUGH A GOOD PORTION OF EAST KENTUCKY IS LOOKING AT HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION OF GREATER THAN 4 INCHES FALLING DURING THE DAY…SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL…THE QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW AND SOME WARMTH ALOFT WILL ALSO YIELD THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF SLEET MIXING WITH THE SNOW DURING
As expected the models should have been offset by the winter trend, since even for wimpy events, they have been wrong greater than 24 hours out, all winter.
Stated past two days they should be knocked down 50%, due to the trend.
CB can still have a shot, since anything is possible.
So the 12z models will be useless! More suspense james lol
Yea, suspense is killing me, lol. Models won’t get a good handle on it till 18z or 00z. Just have to wait and see.
my estimate rain arrives around 2pm and around 6pm the brunt of the storm arrives and hopefully its cold enough to change over to snow..From 6pm on eastern ky is still under a srong band of snow for a good 6 to 8 hrs which should help snowfall amounts..This is based on the nam and of course could change through out the day..So rolo i would disagree on your 2 to 4 at the moment..
I just want snow……
it closte to phasing perfect, i dont think it does till to late that why my thinking this morning.
if it does PHASE right then u get your heavier totals, it going be CLOSEEE when the low and disturbacvne from nw meet up hough, but ill stick to my thinking this morn.
u get a perfect phase then u get more COOLING with the invection you get.
Rolo flip floping surely not…lol
12z nam comes even a little farther north. I know the data is still not accurate yet, but at least it was north 🙂
Well, until CB posts again (he must be real tired by now), we have some knowns:
1. CB’s current map
2. Local and regional mets conflict with CB’s map on the low side
3. CB appears to take stock in the NAM and his tweet five hours ago stated the NAM went north with broader snow cover.
If the models have touted this snow up until five hours ago and now blow up, I think the models should be treated as fiction the rest of winter.
The models have been fiction all winter.
AKA Lucy’s football
Chris’ map looks very similar to mine. As of right now, I’m not going to make any changes. The brand new 12Z NAM still wants to keep the low far enough north to put snow on the ground here… so for the time being I’m sticking to my guns.
I still believe Louisville will be a player in that 2-5″ line you have drawn. But, nice looking map overall !
Like Chris’s latest 2 tweets.
yea WXMAN NAM sticking to its GUNS.
Go NAM!
CB just tweeted and points out the NAM holding firm on a northern trend. Will be interesting if CB does to his current snow map.
Could this be the “ankle biter of 2012”??
Will Rolo hit hard again with old school analogies?? 😉 🙂
Will Lucy pull the football again?
I’m routin for Charlie Brown 😉
stay tuned for the next installment of “As The Weather Models Update”
🙂
i described how our biggest snowsw had come with WARM/RAIN TO SNOW back in day.
I did tell Crystal in PIKEVILLE she could be looking at 6-10 that was yesterday too.
she look to still have shot at 6 inches, i gave my thought 2-4 inches area wide with VA BORDERS maybe higher at the MOUNTAINS.
now if ole rolo wrong and it snows ALOT MORE THEN well I still sleep tonite.lol
THE MODELS are not taking in on how much will melt before it starts to lay, it just taking in the precip as snow.
fact smal area on any model SNOWFALL MAP giving 8 pluys inches and like i said u best take in MELTING etc too.
I mention PHASING well its like winning lottery, if it comes togther right then BOOM, but last time I check I nor anybody here has that 360 million powerball from last week.
BUT,,,,, hey who knows one u all may be holding it for a SUPRISE.LOLLLLLLLLLLLL
here a better gambol!! GULFSTREAM r2 6 hoss WP 6/6 DOUBLE.
Has anybody looked at this thing on radar???
It looks quite…..BIG to me.. and like its growing.
I have an uneasy feeling.
My uneasy feeling is we get missed again. I’m still gonna kick the ball.
You mean uneasy as in good for us snow lovers?
Uneasy like nobody knows the magnitude uneasy.
I just feel like something is not being talked about here…
Like a major shut down storm?
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_48HR.gif
whoa…
Ditto. That is why I just posted below. Nam is back to where it was earlier yesterday. Here in the triangle of Mercer Co, Garrard, and Boyle we look to have some problems.
I do like the map. This has the southern tip of Woodford county in the 10inch range. Temps are still a concern.
Bring that snow to southern Woodford county! I’ll take it! 🙂
a few severe weather (tornado warnings) out in LA right now with this system.
The new NAM is crazy
Getting pretty consistent now. What is everyone’s thoughts?
Will this finally get us a snow day on Monday? Or will it be too warm to hang around?
Weekend Wish List:
No dry slots
No storms robbing moisture down south
No rising temps
SNOW!!
now wouldnt u all like see my words come back and haunt me, saying NAM best as ur 36 hour and closer.
wouldnt u like that?? heck I would too, its COLDER
dont ya just love this stuff, really remember in the debut days of blog when we had 5 or 6 of these a winter with all missing,lol we drove each other NUTS!!
ole VINNY,BERNIE,JULIE in Frankfort, Coffeelady,Crystal, BLIZZARD TIM, MARSHA, ANDY ROSE BUBBG and i know i pprobably mised a couple.
enjoy, predict and have fun. cause WINTER bout over and we be alot worse off till next fall as we dream AAGAIN!!!!
lets go buy a pick 4 lotto. use end march/first april 87 heeck i cant remeber exact date when it hit. so here our play
3-4-8-7 box it up now!!
I have no idea what you just said 😉
Rolo you’ve said everything so some of your words have to come back and haunt you.
lmao @mike
What kinda start time we looking at?
As I pointed out last night, this storm is going to be larger than what was being modeled yesterday, with points north getting more action than expected. Now that it is getting closer the NAM is reflecting this. Also, it appears that the cooling will come earlier than expected, which will result in larger snow totals. Enjoy!
I agree with you there. It just looks abnormally huge to me, and it looks as if its growing.
Who knows…I am certainly not a Met..but my gut is warning me of something.
Could just be the buttermilk pancakes 😉
Buttermilk pancakes?! Now you’ve done gone and made me hungry 😉 I’ll take some snow cream with those, please.
I’ll take milk, bread, eggs, snow cream and a nice snowball to the face! 😉
so you are saying you want french toast? and one heavy wet snowball?
Sure sounds like he is getting his french toast supplies! I bet the grocery stores will be busy today.
Kroger here in south Corbin was packed last night around 8pm. You would’ve thought the 1st of the month on a Wednesday again…you know senior citizen day. Whew! Cashier said they had been busy all day long.
Spoke with a friend from state road department last night. The asphalt temp yesterday was almost 60 degrees. The air temp today is mid 50’s. Most of the snow is expected to fall during the day. This does not add up to much accumulation IMO.
Wave 3 posts ground temps at 38.6
Excuse me– 38.8 for Louisville:
http://blogs.wave3.com/.a/6a00d83452060169e20168e790c0e2970c-pi
And 38.1 for us here in E-Town:
http://blogs.wave3.com/.a/6a00d83452060169e201630199b77c970d-pi
which depending on how fast the wet snow covers– could overtake those temps.
LMK needs to extend the watch 1 or 2 tiers of counties west.
yes, but, they won’t. not until it is on top of us I think. I repeat my thoughts: I think Louisville Metro from Ohio River & south will be in a 2-5″ band. =-)
I think Louisville will get up to two. Lol, i still think my map is good, I’m holding true to it!
Also, I think if the GFS is similar, they may issue it further west with the 12z suits. WSW’s likely later today though (warnings)
When do you think the snow starts larkin?
Im thinking early Sunday morning, between 3 am and 4 am in cky, and in southeast it changes over Sunday morning probably somewhere around 8 or 9 am.
I am for the nam thurs, I am against the nam on Fri, I am for the nam on Sat, All these models are all over the place with snow totals. Hopefully the 0z will tell the story.
If I am sitting in SE,Ky,I have to like my chances of receiving the majority of the snow whatever the amount is going to be.Basically I think we will have to start watching the radar returns around 0z to get an indication or trend of what is really going to happen.
The new NAM at least has me getting something. NWS Paducah still has me getting snow/rain mix. I guess I’m just wishful thinking that snow will find it’s way here. Any imput is appreciated 🙂
Lisa, I like the way the NAM is coming further north with its latest run. The Paducah NWS is very conservative and won’t get serious about snowfall until it’s pretty much on top of us. My gut says we’re gonna get a decent snow outta this in Owensboro.
I’ve been thinking the same thing Joey, but it may be wishful thinking. I’m new to the Owensboro area and am not familiar with how NWS Paducah approaches storms and such. Thanks for sharing your thoughts with me 🙂
Clouds have hung on nicely, I hope it continues as temps are mid 40’s instead of the projected mid 50’s, but it is only 10:30 and the warmth of the day still awaits.
Armchair Mets.. Good statement. Why don’t you let CB post the models and discuss them this is his blog. Unless you are a met such as us, then why continue to go back and forth, really rather silly.
Because it’s fun to discuss possibilities. What’s wrong with that?
just what i was thinking
What do you think a blog is for? Thats the reason this is not a news station weather site…but a BLOG. People discuss things in a blog. Chris has a comments section for a reason.
Wow.
so the Freedom that Chris (who owns this blog btw and not you)gives us we can’t take advantage of because you ES say we can’t?
if he didn’t like us discussing, then he would not have it open for discussion and not allow comments!
if you don’t want to read it then DON’T CLICK ON THE COMMENT BUTTON!
I have a new motto with this blog, I come and read Chris’ posts and try not to read everyones negative I know better then the actual meteorologist comments. I know, its a weather blog and you are allowed to post your thoughts, but I have read this blog since it started, never posted because I try not to get into it. My theory of why our winters suck is everyones negative nancy attitude. The power of some positive thinking would do you people some good. If its gonna snow, then let people hold on to that possibility, why do you have take everything and twist it and turn it until everyone has given up and has the defeated attitude? Personally I am not a fan of snow, but I really want some because my son would love to finally play in it. I am not attacking anyone, think all of you are great people, but everytime it gets to be winter around here, the attitudes are so defeated. Its not the snow dome effect, its the negative nancy attitude, snow miser thinks everyone is already negative, why make the temp that way too?
Well, IF the NAM is the standard and were to pan out, the mets will be known as The Ankle Biters, since the 98 they were the “The Dusters”.
What is CB seeing they are not, since they also see the NAM, but are discounting it?
Must admit it would be messed up to tease (in a good way) with tweets and then downgrade the map. Seems if anything CB would be tempted to upgrade, which would further make him the odd met out.
10 different people posting the models and first call maps isn’t discussing it’s playing forecaster. Not being mean, just my opinion. carry on.
Yeah, well we can play forecaster as much as we want. Most of the people who throw out amounts know what they’re talking about. Leave if you don’t like it.
Why should he leave. He is just discussing the weather forecasters of the blog. 🙂 According to some of you thats all thats needed, to discuss weather. People on here have no right to tell someone else to leave. He has as much right to comment on here as you do. It’s not like he attacked your family or threw out tons of curse words and completely trashed the blog. He did none of those things, so why should he leave?
Since you’re a met, would you like to share your thoughts with us amateurs about snow totals for everyone in the region? You’re welcome to post your predictions on this forum as well.
YOU ARE BEING RATHER MEAN….FYI
Is the communication line still down in Wash. Will there be a12z gfs forecast? The Euro,Cmc,Jma is not coming out of Wa. can we see how they are trending?
Euro is run in Europe. lol. CMC is out of canada, and the JMA is out of japan. dont worry, GFS sucks within 48 hours anyways.
12Z GFS is way south and weaker compared to the 12Z NAM
Looks like 12z GFS stays SE as 6z. At least it didn’t move south.
I am still trusting the NAM, especially since we are within 24 hours. GFS is long range.
Ment to type “stays same”, not SE.
I guess if the nam,gfs,&euro do not come in sync after the 0z runs. I guess we will just have to watch the radar echos,because this has turn into a game of poker snowfall. My advice would be not to put all your snowfall forecast into the pot.
Brian Goode WAVE TV
Latest GFS: South. Little if any snow for Metro, light accumulations south. The battle continues. I think 18z may show some similarities with 00z really starting to aim on a solution.
it may be just me but it looks as if on some of the latest data from the models thta this is turning into a late sunday afternoon to monday morning storm for the snow part of it anyway. this could be a good thing as far as temps r concerned cause most of the snow could fall at night which would be sunday night. any one care to elaborate on this? some of u more exp. mets…..
Well, the 12z gfs isn’t so pleasing. Hope the nam nails it, but the difference is crazy!!!
12z GFS had a lot of convective Feedback, that’s the outcome if thunderstorms over the gulf take away the moisture transport north.
Mitch does that mean we need to throw that run out?
No that is a real possibility
With our luck, it wouldn’t surprise me. This would drastically cut into totals
CMC 12z has a similar representation of the thunderstorms as does 12z GFS.
Severe t-storm/tornado/flood warnings along the Gulf are lighting up like a Christmas tree.
Brian Goode wrote earlier on his facebook that the nam has a colder solution with temps falling into the upper 20s while the snow is falling with banding.
I hate to be pessimistic but when in doubt here in Ky. bet on the southern jet stream winning. (Gfs)
PLEASE……Chris give me an update soon….Thank you for all you do for us crazy snow watchers……….
I got a bad feeling the storm is gonna go more south. Hope I’m wrong.
Wave3 says the euro & canadian back up the NAM, so that is at least something, but he wants to see the system is sampled in TX first.
*see HOW the system is sampled in TX** I meant to say
Stronger the storm the more WAA gets involved and the more rain vs snow. I really believe the real snow winners with this are going to be on the northwest edge of the precip. I just think temps in the 50s today and no monster high pressure to the north is gonna make it tough to get big snow totals for most of Kentucky.
Back in the early 70s, I was playing volleyball with temps in the mid seventies,I actually got a sunburn. It was on a Sat. before Easter. That nite the temps started dropping & north winds pick up. When I awoke on Sunday am there was 6 inches of snowfall on the ground.
Sun is peaking out in Burgin
Brian Goode WAVE TV: I think the GFS is too far south…NAM looks too high with amounts but good track. So a blend of them both? 🙂 Let’s give time for sampling and see how that affects the 00z tonight. 18z may have some 12z balloon data in it, but likley 00z.
i watch 4 mets today they all are LOST, god love their hearts.lol
I feel very confident with my morning thoughts. look for advisorys at best for a large area IMO.
Unfortunately, I agree Rolo.
ur WRONG JOEY, with the track stronger the better pull in more COOLING sir.
I’m still hoping southern Indiana and Louisville get at least 6 inches!! I’m praying to the snow gods!!
The hurricane hunters are actually out over the gulf doing recon on this storm to help feed more data into the models. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml?
According to the guys over at NWS in Charleston, 7 dropsondes were added to the 12z GFS that we’re not in the 12z NAM run.
Does that mean that run of the GFS was more accurate than the nam?
TWC doesn’t have a complete changeover to snow for all of KY until 4 pm
Thats cause TWC is on crack, and has been ever since NBC bought them. Cantore and Forbes are the only good ones there.
The best advice is to go outside an enjoy the comfortable temps. Comeback around 9:30 pm & look at 0z projection starting with the nam. If the big three models do not come to a consensus, start looking at the radar.
Look forward to joining the discussion late tonight. Think Snow For All of KY.
Fickle, fickle, fickle……Models are not concrete….that’s why we call it forecasting. By the way, please….please don’t use “sweet spot” anymore….right up there with “sweet”, “under the bus”, “garden variety shower”.
LMK forecast discussion makes me laugh! Posted at 9:30ish this morning: stay tuned for updates over the next 24 hours until they can get a better idea of the setup (I’m paraphrashing). 24 hours? I hope it’s snowing in 24 hours!
I’m really enjoying all of the discussion and waxing and waning of the models. We want lots of snow in Rineyville, but I’d be happy with 7 inches.
CB we’re dying here….I hear all of the negativity but am waiting to hear from you!! Still hoping for accumulating snow!
CB 101:
If good news,quicker tweets and posts
If bad news or no change, not so quick
Will now be interesting to hear how NWS Louisville will handle tricky weather scenario with its afternoon package. No hints yet. I’m surprised by model disunity as we get closer to this thing. Normally by now, one model is already adjusting to another model’s presentation.
Look for SDF and JKL upgrade to Warnings for most if not all Watch areas. Winter Weather Advisories will probably be posted either with the afternoon package or later this evening for areas at least one or two tiers north of the Warnings.
Louisville should be right on the border. I would put them in the Winter Weather Advisory but a low end advisory, if that really exists.
Yeah I agree with you. Louisville should be in low end advisory, and warnings exist one to two county tiers west of current watch. Looking to texas, the deformation zone has a bigger precip shield.
CB update coming next 309 or sooner..
What?
Need a new post. Comment section going to overload.
Having problems loading the comment section, give us a new post CB!
Weather channels has southern/southeastern Ky in 3-6 inch range..WTH(eck)???? How are the forcasted totals so different???? I know this storm is difficult to predict, but looks like there would be some consensus among the mets who are watching this, rather than each one having a different take on the scenario they think will play out. I trust CB and I’m on pins and needles waiting for him to post his latest thoughts!!! I am in Clay Co. and I’m hoping for a thumper :p Come on snow, please don’t disappoint me!! 😀
TWC has only advertised the GFS and the Euro
The only met taking a lot of stock in the NAM is CB. Local and regional
Hope the upcoming storm will be like the one last winter, the one where, CB and all of the mets called for huge snow fall and it went Bust, It was nothing but rain and slush event. I’m praying this will happen due to warm temps and warm ground temps. Hopefully the storm goes south. I’m ready for spring, Can’t wait, love my flowers and gardening. Another reason i don’t want the storm is because it isn’t pleasant going without power. Without electricity a lot of older people suffer and that isn’t a good situation. Have a great weekend, GOD BLESS. ps think warm temps!
Im sure am thinking Cold temps, thanks for the encouragement! Have a great weekend!
Difference here being only one met is calling for a big event.
Seems the NAM is not taking the temps in account as it perhaps should.
I love it when a plan comes together.
I pity the fool who doesn’t love weather!
Hey Face, go bust Murdock out of the VA, he will then fly his F16 and then give us the NAM model results we want.
Hannibal, not that crazy fool again.
Sorry BA, but I’m on the Jazz! 😀
What about us here in the Flatwoods/Ashland area? Will we even be in the game for snow at all??? For now he has us in the 1 – 4 inch range. hoping it will come more NORTH to help us out!
bailey looking at afternoon run before a post people..
what time do the afternoon runs take place??? how close to the event will the runs need to be to have a more certain handle on it???? thanks…
200 comments! That’s what a winter storm threat will do.
12 Z Nam snowfall map. Look at that cut-off!
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=LVX
And 12 Z GFS.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=LVX
Lucy’s or CB’s? 😉