Good Sunday evening. Our winter storm is winding down across southeastern Kentucky with widespread 4″-6″ totals. Additional accumulations this evening may push some areas to 8″. Many roads are snow-covered and slick and numerous schools are closed on Monday.
Some 13 thousand customers are without power because of the storm. Here’s a look at the breakdown from Kentucky Power:
That’s a lot of people suffering through a cold evening without power. Here’s hoping the crews can get the juice flowing pretty quickly.
Thanks for all the reports from across the state today. You guys are the reason this site has become so popular and you are the backbone of the whole thing we have going here. Keep those reports coming and have a great evening.
Take care.
thanks for the site Chris
Im loving the no snow in Lexington.. Winter is done… I am formally requesting an expedition of Spring with 70’s for highs, Sunshine, and Severe Weather… I guess Old Man Winter just didnt have it in him this season..
Still comin’ down here in Corbin!
Thanks for all you do for us Snowlovers, Chris!! We have close to 5″ in northern McCreary County and still coming down,although it is lighter now.We have stayed around 30*,all day and I just want to say thanks so much.This snow was worth waiting for…it is beautiful!!!! I am a happy weather person!! (:
Thanks Chris, Total right or wrong, That’s weather in Kentucky. Thank you for your hard work and the site. PS ^ that’s what makes this site great.
Still coming down here in Barbourville as well ! Can we make it to 6 ” tonight ?!?
I agree with Andy! Thanks for the yrs of blog and the best weather information station around!!
radar is starting to get a hole in it hope it dont’ take whats left
took a tape measure outside, and measured while ago. even 4 inches here in northern clay county, just north of highway 11 north. thanks for the blog info all throghout this event chris, and all the years of blogs you have done for us since your wkyt days. You are one of the best.
Morgan County was in the 1-4″ snow band….came in around 1/2″ in southwestern Morgan….wouldn’t chap my hands patting myself on the back too much….so let’s look at next weekend….6-8″ for starters?
I’m going with Ackerman on this next one….if I’m wrong, even better. Thanks for your efforts, CB….too much hype makes me hyper.
I am in Morgan and we had roughly 2 inches. And my in-laws called asking about school cancellations (my wife teaches) and said that a family friend told them they had 2 inches at her place as well. Must have been spotty here in Morgan.
Thank goodness for a big county….no school Monday…
I hate snow compared to the vast majority of folks on this here blog…yet this site is addicting. Thanks Chris for all you do, right or wrong. 🙂
If you stick around too long you’ll be a snow lover
No snow in West Liberty 🙁
Not a flake in Lex. We did, however, have an unbelievable sunset. The western horizon was on fire.
Almost 8 inches here, hoping I can make it to 9.
A lot of trees and powerlines down here + a huge mess on the roads.
Where is here?
Letcher County
I see allot of people looking forward to severe weather season to start and for the life of me i dont understand that. I dont look forward to tornados and the destruction they cause. I read the blog everyday dont post much but they still time this winter for a big one. The bigest and coldest times ive seen here in ky came in march so who knows what could happen yet
Those that love heavy snow enjoy the dynamics of the storm, but don’t want power outages during cold, avalanches, traffic accidents, etc. Heck, even some that hate snow still love the dynamics, even if they are eagerly monitoring a big KY/TN snow, but from the Cayman Islands!
Those that get excited about severe wx again love the dynamics, but of course don’t want destruction and loss of life. But as WXMan said, these same people that are excited about the dynamics are also the ones that do things like become NWS storm spotters that *protect* lives, that remind people of tornado safety rules, that remind us to have a battery wx alarm system such as a NOAA wx radio, etc.
Nobody wants a CAT 5 hurricane hitting Miami. But seeing a near perfect eye of a CAT 5, noting the warm humid ocean waters, lack of shear, and other factors fueling that hurricane, can be invigorating.
True, almost all of us love KY/TN wx in Sept and Oct; blue sunny skies, less precip, delightfully cool temps. But the dynamics causing those condition are not exactly exciting. Being a wx man/woman in southern California from about May to Oct must be one of the more boring jobs in the world.
Just because one like dynamics of wx doesn’t mean one likes the harsh aftereffects.
Couldn’t agree more with every sentiment. Thanks for your thoughts.
I just dont see it, i could go the rest of my life and not see another thunderstorm and it suit me just fine
I definitely understand your perspective, I think there’s probably just some people that enjoy the experience of them and then most people like yourself that don’t.
There’s just something exciting in watching the dynamics of an event develop from the early morning, seeing what comes together, since it is so often unpredictable, and then actually getting to see the storm.To see a powerful supercell, even from a distance, is pretty amazing. I hate the property damage and the threat to life, but I do enjoy tracking the storms if for nothing more than to be in awe of them.
I have to say that I’m disappointed….think we’ll have a chance at anymore snow this year??
Is there another storm coming soon where the rest of us west of 65 can have a white Xmas in Feb/Mar?
Very disappointed so far, but love the site and all your hard work.
Snowing harder in southern laurel co. than it has all day, right now.
Getting moderate snow in Barbourville again getting close to 6″ on my back porch!!! Here in bimble just outside of Barbourville
No snow in Columbia. I guess it’s time to give up. Such a letdown this time:(
I know alot don’t want to look at another long range forecast but Maybe this will be the one that bombs all of ky..
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/18/gfs_namer_240_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
Man have we had the verga today!! ALL DAY LONG!!
26,000 without power now.
Still snowing here in letcher county.
Posible snow next weekend?All the hype of this past storm has worn me out. I am ready for spring. Besides, look at all the 20,000 plus households without power…some at least until Thursday.
Speaking of road trips drove 45 miles southeast from BG. Went across the state line into TN and bam went from nothing to a few inches real quick. Hope everyone gets power back quick!
As for what’s coming, a lot of back and forth. Next weekend should just be snow showers. Thursday could be very warm perhaps even a severe event if we get some instability.
Just wanted to chime in and say I thought it was awesome that Chris gave kudos to Jackson NWS for a job well done this time. As often as they get called out for missed forecasts or late calls, I think it was nice to notice when they’re on it, even if it is their job.
No thoughts on my comments earlier, so I will repeat…
This was the biggest bust I have seen in my seven years in KY. Organizations count on forecasts to make decisions. Do we cal extra workers in? Do we cancel a shift or a ball game? Do we treat the roads or not… Winter forecasting seems to have gotten worse, not better since I have been here. This is not to show disrespect any of the hard working mets in the area. But with all the advancements of super computers, data collection and analysis why has the forecasting not improved as well?
Bye the way — I am still holding at 14 inches in the last seven years…
My understanding of this particular situation was that the track of the surface low south through California into Baja and through Mexico into Texas led to a material lack of data until roughly 36-48 hours out. Being unable to launch weather balloons south of the border required that forecasters input estimates into model initialization. Any inaccuracies would then be compounded when a model is run (ie. garbage in=garbage out as far as data)
Lack of data until within 48hours of the event along with, what could have arguably been anticipated morning convection on Saturday that robbed moisture values and energy of the second low, led to the rapidly decreasing forecasts. (robbed moisture/energy also affects track, as a less deep low tends to track more equatorial)
My point, as only an amateur/enthusiast, is that no matter how far models and computer guidance comes, a lack of data will always trump a model that relies on it. Meteorology is a science after all, and the chaos theory rules.
Hope my explanation helped you at least a little in understanding your busted forecast, it always sucks to get your hopes up and be disappointed. Have a great night!
Thanks for you input. It helps me understand the situation a bit more. Is there some type of confidence index? With what you mentioned it would have to have been low. I imagine we can have a forecast and then a confidence index to ride along side it. That would help a lot…
Most mets I saw stated that there was relatively low confidence in the forecast 48 hours out. Once data was fed into the models when the low entered TX, the models pretty quickly came to consensus and allowed forecasters to make a much more confident prediction (reason for the fairly rapidly trimmed totals in the last day or so before the storm, which is still not unusual though).
Without much thought, not sure how you would standardize something like a confidence index for a winter weather forecast (aside from probability of precip), but even if just a ballpark low/med/high figure in accumulation forecasts, I think its a pretty good idea and could be useful to people like yourself that rely on it.
Missing out on an inch of snow doesn’t qualify as a “big” bust. Predictions have held true for Eastern Kentucky. Check out NWS where there estimate is always conservative if not disappointing for any snow event. It is impressive this one has mislead so many. Kudos to everyone here who decided this one would not materialize for most of us!
I love snow, but not power outages. We got nothing in Estill county. I’ve always said it is the safest place to live. No bad snow storms, no really severe storms and no tornados, but we get our share of heat, rain and mud.
I have really loved the snow heres a clip.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NsE5DHdeDjw&list=HL1329713452&feature=mh_lolz
I spent a lot of time looking at the SREF leading up to the storm and it seemed to be the best to follow. In fact Saturday afternoon it indicated that no precipitation would reach the ground in the Lex to Danville area. I thought maybe I was reading it wrong with the forecast that were out but it turned out to be correct. For the time frame it is used I find it very reliable even when used as the primary.
Here is a clip of the snow when it started getting going.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W_LQN2UeIug&feature=share
Great clips Crystal!