Good Thursday evening. We are still picking up the pieces and totalling up the losses from the Wednesday severe weather outbreak. The last thing we need is more severe storms, but that is exactly what we have coming on Friday. This has the potential to become a widespread, significant severe weather outbreak for most of Kentucky.
The Storm Prediction Center has a moderate risk out for much of the commonwealth…
Some quick thoughts on how this may play out:
– A warm front lifts northward across the state tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will then develop near this front. Some of these may be strong or severe… especially in the west and far south.
– Unstable and moist air surges in during the day Friday and this will set the stage for rounds of thunderstorms to fire up.
– The prime severe weather time will be during the afternoon and evening hours.
– Damaging winds and large hail are likely with any storm that cranks up.
– The atmosphere is also primed to give some of these storms a little bit of spin. That means we will really be watching the tornado threat with these. The potential for long-lived, violent tornadoes is with us during this time.
Please stay turned to later forecasts to see exactly how all this plays out. The blog will operate in severe weather mode tomorrow and will be your one stop shop for severe weather coverage. I will be in between tv jobs tomorrow so I can devote all my attention to the blogs and twitter.
Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.
Sounds serious….hoping everyone stays safe!
Welcome home Chris and congrats on the new gig.
Any thoughts on timing for London/Corbin area? Trying to time when we may be in the school hallway tomorrow with our students’ rumps in the air.
Yeah, I’d like to know the timing too, only for Richmond. There is a multi-school overnight field trip to Columbus, Oh. They leave at 12:15. I’m hoping they can scoot out before it gets too severe.
I’d be REALLY interested in this too….I was caught in the middle yesterday and really want to be safe and sound at home with the kiddos instead of on the road.
Both NWS Louisville and Jackson KY have put out video briefings about timing, very roughly from early afternoon to late evening. But situation remains somewhat fluid on the exact where and when so we need to check back for updates.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/largemap.php
Looks like the forecasts are shifting the greater threat more east than earlier. Well, plug in the weather radios tonight in the event of an early morning event and stay safe.
I wouldn’t say more east. CKY and middle tenn are in for it tomorrow.
Congratulations Chief Meterologist!! @WKYT
Good luck with the move, Chris. Will be nice to see you back in LEX.
As for tomorrow, I’m still wondering where the severe squall line will really do damage. Some modeling suggests from Somerset, southward through middle Tennessee and into northern Alabama, closer to the moisture and lift. Other modeling suggests a strip from Loserville to Cincinnati to Columbus, OH will be the prime spot closer to the low center and better EHI values. It’s really hard to say at this point and that’s scary. Everyone needs to take this seriously!
WXMan, I really respect your thoughts about the weather, especially severe wx. However, could you give the Loserville thing a break? A few of us live in, or are from Louisville. Believe it or not, the UK fans I know that are from L’ville have pride in their city. Thanks..
Chris, can you get to WKYT early and help the crew with the Defender? It may take multiple sets of eyes!
I am an unhappy camper. I hate severe weather.
Does anybody know of a local company that builds safe rooms/storm shelters? Every spring we search for one and every spring we have no luck. Thanks!
We searched for one last year and could only locate one out of Somerset. They specialize in putting below grade steel shelters in your garage. Expense was to much at the time for us bit reconsidering as we live on a slab.
Thanks. FEMA has specifications to build one so we could try to find a contractor but it sure seems somebody around here would be in that business. I see demand rising since extreme weather is the new normal.
I’ve heard of companies converting above ground interior closets into strong safe rooms. This may be more for areas where basements are impractical due to high water tables and such.
When I lived in Bowling Green, I recall seeing a large prebuilt shelter on display for sale, at a mobile home park south of town (Natcher Pkwy and Nashville Rd). A large cubicle that is put into the ground.
Hopefully one doesn’t have to go to Oklahoma to find plentiful, cost-effective shelter contractors.
In Evansville IN, I lived on the top floor of an apartment, was a little skittish during severe wx, had backup plans to go to downstairs lobby or if there was time to nearby restaurants with their big walk-in refrigerators.
A friend of mine who survived the 1974 tornado near Cincinnati converted one of her closets into a FEMA approved storm shelter. I think she did it herself. I need to track her down. I haven’t seen her in years.
There are companies in Oklahoma but they want to sell the pre-built room and ship it via truck and install it without seeing your house first. I have reservations about spending $7,000 for something that might not work!
Travis?
I think LOUISVILLE will be on the eastern side of the moderate threat later. Look, football season can’t come soon enough.
I just hope we don’ t hear the term “debris ball” tomorrow. First heard a reference to that last spring. When the folks on TV start throwing that term around, you know the scatological matter is hitting the fan.
The newest radars out actually show those ‘debris balls’ much better than their predecessors. Many NWS offices already have these in place. Dual Polarization or Dual-Pol. I don’t think Louisville or Jackson has these yet. Sounds like Paducah was closer to having these in place than we are.
All NWS radars in Tennessee (Memphis, Nashville, Morristown) now have dual-pol, so a few KY counties along the state line get limited peripheral coverage.
Last I read, NWS Indianapolis, Louisville and Jackson KY are scheduled for upgrade this fall. Paducah, Evansville and Ft Campbell won’t be dual-pol until early 2013 (for whatever reason, Paducah was moved back).
Oh, NWS Charleston WV and Wilmington OH (both have a few KY counties in their jurisdiction) will be converted late this summer/early fall.
Interestingly, WKYT in Lexington installed their own dual-pol radar relatively recently, bet CB can’t wait to use that. Looks like it will get a workout Friday.
Non dual-pol radars show debris balls just fine. You do not need dual-polarization to see them. Debris from a tornado that get pulled up into the storm are highly reflective.
WKYT already has The Dual Radar running. And Welcome back Chris
Thanks for the update, Chris. I’m going to bring the HAM Radio to work (Berea) tomorrow. Have a good view of the NW from my window. Hopefully I won’t see much. 🙂
Welcome home chris!!! Not looking forward to the severe weather at all
I MYSELF though dont see a WIDESPREAD TONATIC EVENT, but after yesterday the powers that be HAVE TO HYPE IT UP to be safe.
Hey Rolo, I have not posted since last year. There is no hype in this forecast. Lifted index shows significant lift for Kentucky. Jet stream is rocking over KY too. Setup is favorable for some big boys tomorrow. Rock on Chris on your new job. CLOSER to Louisiville!!! Keep those radars rolling and be good.
I hope you are right. I am not a fan of severe storms after living through a couple of terrifying events a few years ago.
Sorry, Rolo. I did not like that tweet that said Dr. Forbes was going to RAISE his TORCON for central KY from a 7 out of ten. That guy knows his you know what. He did the same thing for Alabama and Mississippi on 4/27.
chills up and down my spine.
Are you using the same models as your snow predictions? 😉
Just having fun 🙂
Seems tomorrow has a shot at being equal or worse than the events from yesterday.
Hope it is not as bad as thought but Storm Chasers are headed to Louisville and Bowling Green. Not good news.
Reed Timmer is tweeting from southern Ky.
According to my bro-in-law. I don’t tweet.
Oh Sh**t.
Well, looks like TG will be going out with a “bang”, literally! Chris, so glad to have you back at KYT. Will have the phone nearby for the tweets, and the blog minimized in my tray at work. Welcome home!
Chris, everybody young and old are so happy to have you back! My son yelled out “Bailey’s back” last night. Needless to say, he should have been asleep. Best wishes to you and your family coming back. Just remember, we love you and depend on you, but we also know your family does too. Thanks for all that you do.
We are so happy to have you back,Chris! God is so good! Not looking forward to the weather situation tomorrow.
SPC next one day outlook due out by 1:00am est or so. Be interesting to see what gives….
Im thinking high risk between 75 and 65 and it includes Lou, Lex, Cinci, and Nashville.
A high risk is not out of the question in the Nashville/Southern AL/ BG (SOKY) regions.
New outlook released at 0542 Zulu time, still remaining with a moderate risk.
There’s some precip in Kansas now, perhaps a small hint of what is about to come.
The talk here sounds extremely serious. Is there a time frame we can expect this weather system to end tomorrow evening? I Tarc to and from work and am trying to avoid travel during most active time.
Sure not feeling good about tomorrow’s weather. I feel like a sitting duck and I don’t like that feeling one bit.
I feel exactly the way you do. I’m really getting worried. And there isn’t a thing I can do about it but sit and wait for it to happen. That’s a really terrifying feeling. I have let my family and friends know that it is looking bad for us tomorrow so that they are aware of it. I hope everyone stays safe tomorrow.
Hurray! Chris Bailey is BACK!!!! Can we meet you at the airport….er… station Monday morning to wave at you?
Welcome back CB. You have always been the man.
I heard the same thing about Reed Timmer in Kentucky. If that guy makes the trip he’s got my attention. Hopefully he’s just visiting relatives in southern ky.
Reed timer is in Memphis but tweeted he will be heading toward KY.
The SPC did not go with a high risk in the new day 1 outlook though it’s a close to high as possible.
GO BIG BLUE. UNIBLOCKER will lead us to #8…………