Good Friday everyone. Today is shaping up to be a wicked severe weather day across the bluegrass state and surrounding states. A widespread, major severe weather outbreak is expected to unfold early today and last into the evening. This is a day to make sure you have access to instant weather information and warnings.
The action gets started early today as a warm front lifts northward across the region. Scattered thunderstorms will develop along this boundary and these may go severe with large hail the biggest early day threat. Our instability will rapidly increase as the warm and moist air surges in from the south. This will combine with a favorable wind field to produce lines of thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening. These storms will become damaging wind producers and also produce very large hail.
The atmosphere also looks primed to get some of these storms spinning and this will increase the tornado threat. The setup may produce long tracking and violent twisters across Kentucky. Take a look at the severe weather probabilities from the Storm Prediction Center…
Those are some scary looking outlooks and our part of the world looks to be in the heart of this outbreak and that’s not where you want to be.
Your tracking toys…
Current Risk
Current Watches
Possible Watch Areas
I will have many updates through the day and may go with a live blog at some point. I will be using twitter to send out quick thoughts, warnings and storm reports. Make sure to follow @kentuckyweather .
Have a great Friday and take care.
I am worried.
T-showers already starting to fire up in TN, GA and AL this early am, part of the warm front. These storms will persist after sunrise, perhaps some isolated severe wx.
The real action will be the cold front doing its thing later in day and if everything comes together right, could be some nasty, life threatening tornadic supercells. There is precip now in Kansas, likely a hint of the energy that is to come.
This first line should move through Louisville area over the next few hours.
Related SPC Discussion: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0201.html
Wow!
I HOPE that the clouds remain for the afternoon.
I used to be excited to see severe weather, and I still love lightning. What creeps me out most is the wind. After seeing so many places hit by super tornadoes over the past few years, I really am not thrilled at all and hope that they stay away. I’m very nervous after seeing those maps. I hope I’m just being overly dramatic in my mind.
Looking like a wild ride today. Jim Cantore will be doing live reports from central Kentucky and have chasers in Kentucky for live chasing as the day goes on.
McCreary County Schools: CLOSED due to pending weather!
Not good folks. Well be in chat all day keeping up with warnings and chasers. Join us in chat and stay informed. Of course Chris will keep us all informed as well. Chat info:
http://www.keavysroom.chatango.com/
Make a name and say hi. Want a chaser map? Just ask and it will get posted for your use. Hope to see a busy room.
Thanks Chris!! I’ll have my phone ready for your tweets!!
Thx Chris. Your tweets beat our siren typically by a few minutes (if it goes off at all). Will keep eyes peeled on your twitter acct.
Quarter size hail in Meade County, Brandenburg area. Hope this storm does not fuel the fire. Be safe today!
Can you give us a rough estimate of what time the second phase should move in?
TORCON now is 8 Central Ky. Sooooooo, looking like may be a lot worse than Wednesday.Isn’t the worse think with days like this that your family can be spread out in so many directions. My little kids and husband and I are all in four different counties today. Would be nicer if we were all home in our basement relaxing.
Gulp………my worst nightmare…….PLEASE let this not pan out like it is supposed too!
First off I wanted to congratulate you Chris on becoming chief meteorologist at WKYT. We have missed you! Also, I just saw on the weather channel that in my sterling is expecting and I quote “tornadoes likely in some storms!” also Jim Cantore is coming to Lexington to report.
Way too muggy for this time of the year and in the morning as well. Lots of energy to add to storms.
Dr. Forbes just emailed TWC and asked them to raise the TOR CON to 9 for central KY
They said he’s never issued a 9, this is terrible
They issued 10’s last year with the Tuscaloosa, AL storms.
He’s issued a 9 before. They just said he hasn’t ever issued one in March.
try not thinking the worst people, BREATHE!!! god will take care of us all.
far as TORNADOS go western ky east to somerset/ north to lborder were u see any serious up lift this afternoon/evening. eastern SE KY the mountains are ur friend as it always keeps tornados down.
but the FLAT LANDS OF KY is were i be concerned.
moderate rain in GUNChESTER
Rolo, I am in Gunchester!!! Do you see the possiblity of tornadic activity in our neck of the woods?? Thanks for your insight! 🙂
The 1974 twisters struck North Corbin then came rather close to Manchester. There can always be a first time!
True, over the last one hundred plus years, southeastern ky has had few twisters as rising elevations and terrain that’s rugged and irregular hurts tornado genesis. But not the same as saying mountains stop actual twisters, no way, Arkansas’s Ozarks have lots of twisters, mountains anywhere have little effect on existing tornadoes (note graphic of twister going up and down ridges)
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/weatherpapers/103/index.html
Rolo, the entire region is at risk. I think it’s a bad idea to put it out there that the mountains and terrain of east Ky will negate the risk of violent weather.
As Chris just tweeted, SPC upgraded much of Kentucky to High Risk.
March + muggy = Mugged
Everyone needs to be paying attention to the weather today. Its not often we are placed in the high risk area. Have a plan in place in case your area is placed under a tornado warning. No one wants anyone to die or lose their house but those are possibilities today. Be safe!!
Someone help me make sure I am interpreting the SPC categorical outlook maps correctly. I thought the black hash marks indicated a “significant” risk, which is the highest category. But looking at the most recent map, there is a 30% circle within hash mark area, which isn’t logically consistent. What am I missing?
Black hatch marks mean EF-2 or stronger tornado within 25 miles of that point is possible.
Nevermind. I figured it out. The hashmarks just mean a 10% or greater risk of an EF2-EF5 tornado. I misread the scale at the bottom, thinking that the black marks were higher than the other categories, but it actually represents all the areas of 10% or higher.
Chris- I am actually glad you are in between jobs today. We need you. I am still amazed at the people around me this morning who had no idea the possibility of this afternoon. It sure was muggy when I took the kiddos to school a minute ago.
I am in London Today working……Please someone keep updates on here.
My family is in Mercer and I have work family all over Ky.
May God keep everyone safe today.
Joyce- I am in Mercer on the lake in Burgin and will keep you updated on the posts.
I’m in west Mercer and will be keeping close watch here.
It’s only 36 degrees in the Ashland area right now…are we getting ready to see a surge of warm air, or is this going to help decrease our storm chances for this area?
Liking these rain and storms moving into Central Ky right now. I know they are with the warm front but IF, and this is a big IF they can produce more rain, clouds and work over the atmosphere that MAY cut down on later stuff in Central KY. If I remember right, last year, when Alabama got hit (April 27) we were supposed to see bad conditions in Central Ky and the rain and clouds kept the atmosphere relatively stable.
Here’s hoping that the “High Risk” forecast is a bust! I won’t complain about that one bit.
Chris- I never discourage optimistic thinking, and I hope you’re right. But I’m afraid that it won’t have the same effect as that time you are discussing. I don’t remember the setup from that day, but here we are looking at two different fronts- a warm front this morning and a cold front later. So the current rain was expected and a part of the forecast.
And UNforchantly, the lease of our worries.
I am excited that you are coming back to Lexington. Thank you for keeping us aware of the weather.
Shouldn’t temperatures be higher at the moment if we were going to make it to 70 today?
It may be the warm front has yet to reach your neck of woods.
If so, your temps and dewpoints may soon really spike up.
I just sent my mother to get my kids from school…..Lexington always skirts by on major outbreaks, wondering if today will be the same ole song and dance…..
Sun wasting no time coming out after the storms move through in Winchester. Not good.
Uh oh, some peaks of blue sky are now trying to break through the overcast in Nashville TN. Of course, the quicker the skies clear, the more fuel for the fire later.
Sun is out in Lex. Not good.
Oh, and Cantore is on his way here.
supercells should start to fire around 19Z or in about 3 hrs across West KY/TN. tornado watch perhaps even a PDS watch may be isseud soon.
I don’t understand a lot of the weather “terms” so can you please tell me what PDS means? Thank you.
“Particularly Dangerous Situation”
Lexington….had rain…then sun…now clouds. I think we are going to get everything today. Look over your severe weather plans now! Don’t wait to find out where you need to go and what you need to do.
for all of you “more knowledgable” – what are your thoughts for the Lexington area?
Mercer and Boyle County schools dismissing early.
Bath county schools letting out at 115. We are at the tip of the torcon 9 I believe.
When they are saying “torcon” what does that mean? And is there a map or something where people are seeing where it refers to? Thank you
Torcon is exclusive feature of The Weather Channel, the National Weather Service and other agencies don’t use Torcon. Dr Greg Forbes came up with TORCON, he in his younger years was a student under the great Dr Fujita (in which the tornado ‘F’ scales are named after).
http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/daily-torcon-forecast_2011-07-11
lexington is letting school out early.
Sunny and 57 degrees on the Woodford Co./Franklin Co. line.
Cantore reminds me of Charlie Brown and that ‘black cloud’ that always follows him; can only mean one thing….So, if you see Cantore, we’ll sound the Cantore Alert System.
When a Watch is issued, most likely a PDS, take note of the probability/percentage section within that Watch box. For those who know what I’m talking about, those probabilities will be astronomical. I may not be able to post that, as there will be just too much to do.
Have to get the rest of my gear ready and finish up with last minute preparations.
95 % probability of tornado and 80% of E-F 2 or greater in the PDS watch. Never paid attention to that before..thanks for pointing that out.
looks like twisters are allready forming in parts of ala..
CNN reporting tornado touched down in Huntsville, Alabama
Fayette Co. are dismissing 2 hours early.
Temp up to 63 in Frankfort, somewhere in KY will get hit hard today. Stay safe folks.
What is it supposed to do in Paducah, KY (Western KY). Should I be concerned?
My hometown is middlesboro ky are any
Storms heading that way