Good Wednesday, everyone. Temps are in the tank out there today, and this is only the beginning of a bitterly cold period of weather across the region. As a matter of fact, this is a headline making winter pattern developing for much of the country.
In addition to the bitter cold, we have several snow chances to track, including the New Year’s weekend threat.
In the short-term, temps out there today start in the single digits in the north, with low and middle teens elsewhere. Wind chill readings will be below zero for several areas. Afternoon highs may not get out of the teens north, with low and middle 20s south. Those same gusty winds will make it feel much colder.
The weekend setup will feature bitterly cold air coming in here, and likely putting down some snow. The European Model is delayed tonight, so I didn’t get a chance to look at it before this update. Without seeing the European, it’s difficult to get too specific.
The Canadian Model is trending closer to what the Euro has been showing for several days now. It has a swath of arctic snows Friday night into Saturday…
Accumulating snows would show up with that, complete with 30mph or greater winds.
The GFS is coming around to that, with a stronger system than earlier runs showing up for Friday night…
The GFS still has a system coming behind it, but the cold is crushing it…
The bitter cold is impressive, with the Canadian Model going nuts later this weekend into early in the New Year…
That is VERY likely too extreme, but, if we just take add 10 degrees to those numbers, it’s still crazy.
The Canadian also is trending toward the European Model having more of a storm coming from the south a few days later…
Regardless, that’s another bitterly cold air mass coming behind that.
The GFS is wall to wall bitterly cold over the next 2 weeks…
For instance, this run of the GFS does never cracks the freezing mark in Lexington over the next 2 weeks. That’s impressive, my friends.
I will update things later today, so check back.
Have a great one and take care.
It is to cold to snow!
Frozen Green Ground!
Wasted Cold Air!
That seems to be the highlights of this upcoming weekend.
Exactly my thoughts. If we are depending on anything coming from the northwest then we are out of luck.
Never too cold to snow.
Exactly my thoughts too. Lake effect snows is all you are going to here about. The only good out of this uneventful pattern is the clippers as weak as they are will keep the ice storms at bay for now. The Arctic air we have could be a lot worse. I remember years back the highs were minus eight with lows minus fifteen to twenty below.
Back in 1976, 1977, 1978 here in Southern Ohio there was a week the highs were below zero. 1977 & 78 was the worst winter I have every seen. The coldest temperature I ever seen was 40 below zero. The trees were popping like gun shots in the woods.
Will never forget the winter of 77/78. At nine years old walked in the frozen Ohio River. I believe that was the year we had a blizzard as well. 78/79 was just as worse I do believe with record snowfall durning January.
Yes your right Bjenks, very well remember it myself.
Clippers were never strong systems. But the last few years they have been pathetic. Really not newsworthy. Should probably change their name to flippers since all they produce is a few flurries.
You are right.
Rodger remembers years ago when we’d miss southern storms there would usually be a clipper or two that you could count on covering the ground as consolation prizes during the winter season. They don’t seem to deliver for us anymore. Either too far north or warmer with drizzle on the south side. Rodger in Dodger.
Well the Gfs was encouraging yesterday all days runs continued to show the new year storm…last night’s run busted that bubble!! This morning 06 z run has it a tiny bit stronger ..
Ky/TN winter weather terminology
Warning….” A to far north warning!
……………… A to far south warning!
…. ………….. A to warm warning!
………………. A to cold suppressed warning!
………………. A dreaded FENCE warning…….
……………….. A 7 day away model snowstorm warning!
………………….,……..
This has been a test of the new emergency broadcast system for winter weather in Kentucky and Tennessee…..
GFS is BS
That is good, and the truth.
7 days out is the norm and then nothing! Good stuff there, Blizzardtim! Rodger in Dodger
Team #FestiveFlakes
Wow, with highs consistently in the teens to lower 20s this week (for lexington, at least,) and single digits nightly we are lucky to not have any snow on the ground. Slap a couple of inches on the ground and we easily would have highs in the single digits and teens and lows below zero daily! Crazy how this cold pattern (not very snow producing though) is so persistent!
Folks everyone knows typically we don’t usually see our best chances of snow tell January and February, March. So it’s not surprising that December hasn’t produce no snow for our area. Remember Chris Bailey bold prediction a wind driving snowstorm if the cold don’t surpress this weekend storm, this could be the storm he’s talking about if it materialize. Even the weather channel are saying the possibility just depends how far the jet stream goes if it drop just south of us our chances are good or if it drops deep down south our chances are dim. But still got the whole month of January
I’m with you. I love snow and this blog but people have been complaining the entire month of December and Winter has just started. At least with all this cold, whatever falls should stick unlike the festive flakes that melt on contact. Late January and most of February has always (with the exception of 2010 and 2013) been snowier than December here. I agree that the models are terribly misleading more than two days out but to say that Winter is over!?!? Just wait for the complaints about wanting an early Spring starts next week !!!!!
From the Great John Belski. “Any snow received in December is bonus snow, we get ours in Jan/Feb”.
No disrespect to Belski, but some readers on this forum might argue if we get any snow during winter, that would be a bonus.
Truth.
When has his JB’s outlooks panned out? he seems to always talk snow smack that is weeks out.
Bold Prediction expires every winter. That one has already expired. This season’s Bold Prediction is for a 50-degree spread in a 24-hour period. IF this winter is a dud, next year’s Bold Prediction should be, “Can we make it 3 years in a row? I think so”….No, now that I think about it, that might not be a bold prediction after all. Using the NWS snow season of July 1 – June 30, during one stretch, Lexington incurred 4 consecutive years of snowfall less than 10” (1921/22, 1922/23, 1923/24, 1924/25). Not too far removed from those years, Lexington had seen its snowiest back to back snow seasons of 55.4 and 43.4 inches during the 1916/17 and 1917/18 winters.
That is often true, BUT the weather is often like a rubber band. When it’s this cold, you can bet it will snap back the other way to a warmer pattern and who knows how long that lasts? Maybe until the end of January or beyond. Once we’re to February, you’re down to 4-6 weeks of winter and will it get cold enough to snow again? This much wasted cold is depressing. Rodger in Dodger
Speaking of bold predictions… Those of us old enough to really pay attention to the weather have surely noticed by now that our winters seem to come in a pattern of at least two years in a row. So, my bold prediction is that the largest part of KY will receive little to no snow, just like last year. Don’t buy it? Go back in time and check the records. Snowy winters are usually back to back, non-snowy winters back to back, cold winters back to back, and so on.
Winter Lover, remember when Marcia Yockey would call for a big snow and we didn’t get that much as expected, she would say ” them’s the vicissitudes of life “
Thankfully the wind chills in my area are no where near close to what they are in the metro.
West Ky snow AWOL again…
Dare we bring back the DOME? At least there is a better chance of snow now than when we have rain to back side flurries. If this cold coming is not as strong as predicted then the Southern storms will have a better shot at moving further North. The models never have it correct within 4-5 days so I am still holding out hope for a White New Year and a very snowy January/February.
The Dome is BACK Baby, BACK!
GFS is the brand of Lucy’s football.
Anybody see that up to 1″ snowfall yesterday into today? Not even a flake to be seen in Louisville. Luckily for me, I’m headed north to Illinois for New Years weekend. Already 5″ of snow on the ground, and seems to be more on the way there. That’s about the only way anyone is going to see the white stuff on the ground right now. Travel North or head to New England, and the great lakes where record snowfalls are happening.
Any one see the storm next week. Lol
The key words CB describes the snow for the weekend is a chance of a little snow. Not seeing how “storm” or any other word similar could be attached. Seems this cold for two weeks is destined for festive flakes and maybe… just maybe.. a coating or an almost, but not quite ankle biter.
Kentucky has a T-Shirt: Snow Hate me.
At this point a coating would be the highside of the totals.
CB used the word “threat”. Ruh-Ro. Don’t think he used it to highlight a mode though. Umph.
Interesting choice of words given the expectation of “a little snow”. Maybe since we have gotten almost nothing since two winters ago, 1″ is relative a threat 🙂
No negative comments would be best. Most want snow. Let’s just hope it comes and share hope rather than saying Winter is a bust before New Year Day. I expect a big storm—just need to be patient.
Lucy has always expected a big snow aka her football.
Branded GFS, Euro, Canadian. Lucy has plenty of football brands.
Her favorite stadium is the Kentucky Dome.
Except I do remember a week ago, hearing CB said he was very confident in Kentucky seeing our first Winter Storm Threat mode in nearly 2 years. That was supposed to be for Friday/Saturday this weekend. Last year I heard the exact same comments from people…”it’s only Decemeber, our real winter isn’t until Jan/Feb, and even March.” How did that turn out? Oops lol. Bottom line, most of us aren’t buying anything these predictions and models show, until we get an actual snowstorm to verify. Can’t blame people on here for being pessimists, when it comes to winter weather in Kentucky the past couple years. I do hope it all turns around. There is always next week, right? 😛
CB nailed two winters for snow (we got three big ones in one rolling year of two winters), but now might miss two winters for snow. Still think his estimate for extreme stuff besides snow for later this winter is spot on. Cold and warm might be battling over Kentucky later this winter.
Brrr. Those temperature projections are pretty brutal. Guess I’ll leave my car battery on trickle-charger at night.
Years ago a major snowstorms covered more real estate, now the snowstorms just cover a narrow band. Something in the upper layers of the atmosphere has really changed. Back in the 1950’s and 1960’s we would have warm spells in the winter with thunderstorms and heavy rain and just over night that rain would turn to heavy snow and accumulate to over ten inches. After the storm, Arctic air would take over and drop temperatures below zero with clear skies. Within a three day period, cirrus clouds would appear in the southwest horizon and the next morning heavy snow would be falling on top of the first storm from before. I’m thinking now days those snowy days are over till we get closer to the next Ice Age. We have a long wait.
A clipper is no longer a 1-3 inches of snow. It is nothing more than a reinforcement of colder dryer air and a wind shift to the northwest in my area of Kentucky. That’s our storm for this coming weekend.
That is so true. Same in the Huntington/Ashland area. Northwest/Clipper snows are nothing more than a few flurries in the air. Another thing is if any moisture is involved it will warmup and rain till the wind changes and blows the flurries in.