Good Wednesday to one and all and welcome to the month of June. Today is the day folks in the weather world look at as the beginning of Summer. We might as well celebrate this big day by releasing the 2011 Summer Forecast.
I will be the first to admit I don’t put forth the amount of time and research into this seasonal forecast as I do for the Winter Outlook. That said… it’s not like I am taking a blind shot at this thing… though the results may say otherwise. 
Here are some things that stand out as we head into Summer:
– Wet ground and record spring rains for the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys
– Southern Plains/Deep South Drought
– A dead La Nina
– Warmer than normal Gulf and Atlantic waters
You can really see the later two showing up very well on this sea surface temp anomaly map…
We are coming off one of the strongest La Ninas on record and the water near the equatorial Pacific is warming VERY quickly. Several of the computer forecast models bring us into Neutral or even very weak El Nino range by the fall into the upcoming winter…
Many of the prior years that featured a similar setup from La Nina into neutral ended up providing our region with a fairly tame summer in terms of temps.
Given the progression of these years and the fact we have a waterlogged ground… the period of June-August should wind up featuring temps at of just below normal for much of the state…
Breaking that down in greater detail…
– June should be the hottest month relative to normal. As a matter of fact… temps will likely come out a few degrees above normal.
– July will see the heat ridge shift toward the southern plains states as cooler shots of air invade our region from the northwest. I expect normal to slightly below normal temps.
– August is likely to be the opposite of last year’s scorcher as the heat ridge becomes established well to our southwest and west. This should be a below normal temp month.
– The number of 90 degree days is a tough call since we have such a wide variation from west to east. We won’t come close to seeing anything like last year… but we will still have our fair share this summer (especially early) .
How about the rainfall side of things?
Following this super soaked spring… it would have to basically stop raining for the next 2 months to make us even worry about a drought. Take a look at the long term drought indicator across the country…
You can see from our region into the north and northeast… there is NO worry about a drought this summer. Areas to our south and southwest are a different story as conditions there are bone dry.
A wet spring around here usually turns into a wet summer and that is what I am expecting over the next three months. Rainfall should average normal to above for much of the region as frequent thunderstorms continue to do their thing. Speaking of storms… the heart of the severe weather season is behind us, but I expect this summer to produce a couple of decent wind events. That may come from northwest to southeast moving clusters of storms that ride along the periphery of the heat ridge to our southwest.
On a tropical note… the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean will likely produce an active hurricane season. That same warm water may mean some close to home development and a greater threat for landfalling tropical systems. The east coast appears to be ripe for a hurricane threat and that includes areas pretty far up the coast into the mid atlantic states.
So there you have it… Not my best work by any means… but it’s a summer forecast.
Short term weather notes…
– A weak front will move across the state today and knock our temps down a few degrees. Many areas will be near 90 with a little more cloud cover and even a stray shower or storm.
– Slightly drier and cooler air moves in for Thursday as temps come down into the 80s for highs. Lows may even dip into the 50s Thursday and Friday mornings.
– The hot air begins to move back in from the southwest Friday and will carry us into the start of the weekend. Temps should peak in the low 90s again for Saturday.
– That heat gets pushes back to the west later Sunday and Monday as a front dips in from the northwest.
– That same heat ridge will try to fight back in toward the middle of next week.
– With an increasing back and forth setting up… we may go back into a stormy pattern for the middle of the month.
– Still watching the tropics for some early season fun in the Caribbean.
Have a great Wednesday and take care.
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Thanks for the summer update! I hope the “cool” July and August proves to be true! Love reading your blog every morning as I have my quiet time and coffee before the kiddos wake up!
Thanks for the hard work and dedication to the blog! Yesterday here in Barbourville 2 different bank thermometers showed 99 and 98 degrees!!!! That’s too hot for me.
Here in Lexington, the Chase bank off of Avenue of Champions had their bank thermometer reading 101!!! I don’t think I’ve ever seen a bank thermometer with an accurate reading.
It seems to be hard to find any thermometer that is accurate when the temperature goes above 85 degrees. Sunday the high temp was 88 but my phone said 92.
Welcome, summer time! Thanks for the summer forecast, Chris. I just hope it is not too wet and cool come August. We bought a pool pass for the first time this year and I would hate to not be able to use it much! Looking forward to all the things summer brings…bbq’s, vacations, swimming, wearing shorts and sandals……ahhh, summertime and the livin’ is easy!
Thanks Chris!
The only thing I’d disagree about is the drought. We can EASILY go into drought with dry ground and agricultural issues here because at this latitude the Summer sun still scorches the ground and dries it out. If it stops raining the farmers will be praying for water by the middle of July. We’ve had many years recently where it was wet in Spring and then went bone dry for Summer. 😉 Just sayin’…a wet Spring isn’t enough to get us through Summer. We still NEED rainfall.
Agree, last summer was a prime example of that. I do hope Chris nails this one for the sake of our farmers & Gardens 🙂
I’ve always felt that I don’t want to put my money into a bank that can’t get it’s outside thermometer correct. I’ve also vowed to never fly on the national airline of any country that worships cows.
So far I’ve kept both promises.
I agree, although I don’t recall what Chris predicted last summer and if he forecast the rain stopping the way it did. I took photos of our farm last May and there were huge mushrooms all over and the grass was lush and green. By the end of July, everything was dead. By the end of August, it was horrible! I really, really hope we keep getting a bit of rain and no ridges that set up and keep us hot and dry for weeks at a time. I am keeping my fingers crossed that Chris has nailed the 2011 summer forecast. 🙂
Thanks CB. Love your forecasts. Especially in the winter when you seem to be right a few days before the others come around and change their forecasts.
First day of hurricane season. On cue, there is a surprise development off of Melbourne, Florida, which will drift over the Florida peninsula and into the GOM tonight. Could wind up being Arlene.
I think we went from wet to to the bluegrass drying up and turning brown in about 3 weeks las year. This hot, dry, sunny pattern, along with the high evapotranspiration, is going to suck the moisture out of the soil in a hurry. We have had a ton of rain but most of that is in Louisiana right now so it won’t be much help.
Here is Chris’ 2010 Summer Forecast.
https://kyweathercenter.com/2010/05/30/summer-forecast-warm-and-stormy.aspx
Comments? 😉
Looks as if it was wet last year and the prediction was for a cooler, wet summer. Then it ended up being hot and dry.
The ocean temps and other factors may be different this year. And the rainfall is more widespread this year than last so that could have an effect. But overall the weather seems to follow a pattern of “I’ll do what I want when I feel like it.” All the while we wish for the flooding to stop and then for the rains to come. Guess this is what makes the weather so fun.
It sucked! 🙂 To my credit… I didn’t put as much time into that forecast last year and ended up missing a few key signals.
While it was wet last May… it was basically a false signal since most of it came from the one big rain that spawned the massive flooding. This year has been wet from day one so we have a TON more moisture in the ground than last spring. Plus… the pattern is totally opposite of last year.
That’s my story and i’m sticking to it. 🙂
Yeah.. I mean, last year I recorded a lot of rainfall in April and May.. and by the end of July it was so dry that even the Crabgrass was shriveling up! Things can and do turn around in a hurry here in the Ohio Valley. We can’t bank on what we’ve just come through to prevent drought. I sure do hope we continue to see frequent rains.
agree with general thinking. thanks chris. I’m back looking at ky weather now.
Chris,
I for one can understand. Even with every signal seemingly perfect things can change. So it makes it even harder when a few signals are missed.
That said the forecasts here are always awesome. When I can see a forecast 4 or 5 days in advance here and they are spot on or pretty close while others do not come around until the last minute, so to speak, I think I will stick to your story also. And it has definitely been wetter this year as the lake here is still way above normal.
There is a finite amount of water that the soil can hold. After a rain event the excess moisture drains and the moisture level returns to field capacity. Doesn’t matter if you have 2″ or 6″, with in a few days the moisture level is the same. So basically we are at the same point in term of soil moisture as we were at the end of June last year.
I guess you really missed that forecast, didn’t you. Seems like we are headed for a worse summer than last year!