Good Sunday to one and all. We have a nice temperature gradient setting up across the Ohio valley with cool temps in the northeast and warm air in the west and south. This warm air fights in today and we are likely to see a few rounds of thunderstorms as it does so.
Some of the storms today may be strong or severe with the greatest risk being across the north and northeast. Damaging winds and large hail are the main players we will have to watch for.
I have you all set to track today’s boomers…
Temps will head back toward summertime readings today into early next week. That’s when highs hit the 80s again.
I will be sending out updates and information on watches and warnings via twitter.
Have a great Sunday and take care.
Storms are training over the Metro. So much for yard work today!
Hope this rain keeps the severe weather away this afternoon and evening.
Despite the rain, warm air and high dewpoints are forecast to advect into the area very soon, and I do think that this will be a significant day for severe storms.
This weather is ugly in Frankfort, cloudy damp & cool, west ky has 80 degree weather and we are stuck in the50’s. Upper 70’s is the forecast. Don’t see that happening???
Congrats to the Cats…very entertaining game.
Lifted Indices near -10 in parts of west Ky. That’s crazy. It’s possible storms will refire along boundaries left over from this morning.
I had pea-size hail this morning. Potential exists for hail up to the size of golf balls for some locations.
Keep an eye to the west and northwest. Once things start to fire, if they fire, Watches could go up for central and eastern parts of the state.
Tornado threat seems pretty good as well. I expect meso. discussions to start popping up soon.
SPC is a little too conservative on their latest outlook. They shrunk the 30% area, when really if they did anything they should have shifted it south a little or expanded it more. I think this may be a surprise event for many.
Larkin,
It looks like that complex of storms and rain that moved through earlier stabilized the atmosphere for the east-central and eastern parts of the state. It may take some time for that to turn back into an unstable atmosphere.
Things working for severe weather—-moderate effective bulk shear. CAPE values are also increasing across the region. EHI Index is also supportive of hail producing storms.
Working against severe weather—-humidity levels are not optimal. CAPE values and lift are still very low in central/eastern KY at the moment. Will depend on how much of an eastward movement these values can take before storms can fire. Also, there is a large clearing over the area, with no clouds in the vicinity.
This may become a late night to overnight event for our area, in my opinion.
Will be on top of things for a few hours to see how it progresses.
I agree, but I think the atmosphere is going to revamp back into place quite nicely. Instability is already beginning to rise of over cky. I could use a good hailer
Larkin,
Looked at the latest model on severe weather parameters—humidity is still not high enough–precipitable water is marginal; lift is low in most places in central/eastern areas…
However, I’m curious to see if any Tstorm development may occur left of a line from Washington to Wayne counties along a lift boundary. Still no trigger to make these storms develop in this area—so the storms may fire a bit further east along this boundary tonight as it moves in that direction.
But still not convinced of anything more than a marginal severe weather threat yet.
lets hope fellers that the storms dont fire up i could do without a good hailer the march 2 storms done enough to my community ive seen all i want to see
I agree I can do w/o any of these storms. Electric going off is no fun.
SPC is now giving a 40% chance of a weather watch tonight for northern Ky. If a watch is issued, would likely be a severe t-storm watch, as the tornado threat has dropped to 2% from the 5% earlier.
watch now up but they have dropped the damaging wind from 30% to 15% also they have taken away hatched areas for hail. i think that the absence of significant day time heating really keep the severe threat from reaching max potential thats not to say we won’t see severe t storm warnings as they are up for parts of Ohio and Ind right now.. I wonder if they will weaken since those areas saw more day time heating than we did in SE Ky???
Larkin–no disrespect intended, but you need to tone it down, in my opinion. As a pastor of a church, I respect the awesome power of God but don’t wish it to be displayed on anyone. Liking severe weather is ok, but saying you “could use it” crosses the line. There are millions of others that are struggling to hold it together that severe weather is the last thing “they could use.”
Will we see any development in the EKY area because it seems to have cleared out quite nicely?