Good Tuesday everyone. We are coming off the nicest weather day of the spring as Monday delivered sunny skies and warm temps. Today is likely to keep the warm temps and deliver something different as a few rounds of showers and storms move in… especially across central and eastern Kentucky.
This is from the setup we have been talking about for several days now. A big heat ridge is located across the middle of the country and is putting us on the eastern flank of the warmest air. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will be working from northwest to southeast across our region over the next few days. These can put down more locally heavy rains and this shows up very well on the GFS rain forecast…
You can really pick up the placement of the storm train on that map. In addition to the threat for heavy rains… we will have to watch for strong or severe storms. Here is the latest severe weather outlook for today from the Storm Prediction Center…
Follow the progress of the storms here…
Temps today will range from the mid and upper 80s in the far west to the upper 70s in the east. A similar setup will be noted for Wednesday and Thursday as the 80s push farther eastward across the entire area. The first 90 of the year is possible in the west.
Make no mistake about it… this is a VERY impressive surge of summer heat into the plains states. Readings there will likely set records and several spots may touch 100 before all is said and done.
A cooler air mass will move in by the coming weekend as our pattern finally begins to bust a move. This will bring a better threat for some big storms by Friday or Saturday. This may also lead us into another fairly wet pattern into the early part of next week.
You can really see how this cooler air moves in by looking at the GFS Ensembles Temp Anomaly map…
Some changes to the overall temp pattern across North America should take place in the coming few weeks. It looks like we may finally scour out a lot of the cold in Canada.. at least for a while. That would mean we flip the temps to warmer overall for the last week to 10 days of May and you can see that above.
I will have updates as needed so check back. Have a great Tuesday and take care.
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With the most recent update, SPC has increased the tornado probs. to 5% for all of the Bluegrass and eastern KY.
So when should we expect these storms? Are they going to fire soon or is most of the day going to be nice?
“It looks like we may finally scour out a lot of the cold in Canada.. AT LEAST FOR A WHILE.” I enjoy Mr. Bailey’s forecasts and I have no doubt he is the very best in KY weather. But I can’t take it when he throws something like that out without explaining it. What does it mean? Are we still not done with this lousy cold, wet, rainy, and stormy pattern even after it is scoured out in late May?
Correction.. I thought it was nice until i stepped outside, its downright humid.. dew point has skyrocketed. Feels more like a midsummer morning.
NOT looking forward to this weekends weather based on the forecasts I am seeing…60’s and rain? No thanks.
Thanks, Chris! I did enjoy the weather yesterday. IT was a near perfect day. (If I hadn’t had to work, I would have probably called it a perfect day.) 😉
Hoping the storms don’t get too bad as my daughter is travelling to an awards ceremony this evening. (a college recruiter has to do these things) 😉
I am not looking forward to the weekend either, with rain and 60s. But we take what we get and go on with it, and make the best of it! Thanks, Chris,. for all you do!
SPC is watching this area for a possible Watch this afternoon. CAPE values could go off the charts in the warm sector. Visible satellite suggests that Louisville, Frankfort, Lexington, etc. could all get in on the action.
but will the cap break? regions near the boundary listed above have the best shot of seeing that happen.
The last sounding from ILN showed a cap near the surface, but from about 850mb and up there’s almost no cap at all. The Nashville sounding has a very weak cap in it. I don’t think it’ll be too hard to bust the cap in central KY, and with 2000 to 3000 joules of CAPE, if the cap goes it’s going to explode.
STW till 8:00 for all of state east of Henderson to Somerset line.
What about EKY? Will we see severe here?
Very likely, yes. The new Watch includes ALL of central and eastern Kentucky until 20:00 (8PM).
Looks to me there is a boundry line north and east of Lexington allowing the storms to fire on that line. Doesn’t look like Lex area gets much.
In addition to the wind threat, hail appears to be the highest threat as the SPC has put out a HIGH chance for severe hail (>1″). In fact, there’s a 60 percent chance for hail greater than 2″.
Actually, that’s a 10% chance of hail 2″ or larger. This is in addition to a 30% chance of hail 1″ or larger. So not all that serious just yet.
1″ sized hail in North Eastern KY
1140
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