Good Sunday everyone. The start to our Thanksgiving travel period is upon us and we’re kicking it off with another big rain maker. The weather pattern over the next few weeks is one that can produce some wild times around here as we settle into a winter scene by the end of the month.
Rain will increase across the state today as a wave of low pressure works through the area. Locally heavy downpours will be likely and you may even hear a clap of thunder. I will have your tracking toys tacked on to the bottom of this update.
This is the start of a very wet period that will run through early Wednesday. Many areas should pick up 1″-3″ of rain between now and then and some local high water issues can’t be ruled out. Something else that can’t be ruled out… strong thunderstorms and high winds for Tuesday.
The European Model has always been showing a deepening storm tracking across the Ohio Valley. The GFS now agrees with the stronger low…
That track could easily spawn some strong storms around here and would also produce some very gusty winds. Much colder air moves in for Wednesday and I can’t even rule out a stray flake in the highest mountains by evening.
That system rolls away in time to give us a great Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday. Winds will be gusty as mild temps return.
That takes us into Thanksgiving Weekend and the possibility that it could be a wild one around here and for much of the country. A big storm is going to crank across the plains and work in here by Saturday. A big shot of cold air is going to be pushing this storm. We may go from windy, warm and stormy on one day to windy, cold and some snow by the next. That’s at least a possibility based on what i’m seeing right now.
Every model has, at some point lately, shown this exact scenario taking place. The European Model is taking it to the extreme…
The analogs have been screaming about a system like this for a long time. I’m not yet convinced this is the one, but it has a chance. The overall pattern for the end of the month into early December continues to look wintry with a big trough digging into the eastern half of the country.
Let’s get to tracking today’s rain…
Rainfall Since Midnight
I will have an update later today, so check back. Have a great Sunday and take care.
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I will believe in the change to winter when i see it. Also the whole winter is in danger.
Morning, Chris. Thanks for the update. I guess that finally dragging out the winter clothes might not be a bad idea for next weekend, from the way that you are talking about temps. As for the rain, it isn’t here yet, but from the looks of the radar, it isn’t far away.
Looking forward to seeing a blog where you mention the white stuff more….
Have a great Sunday, everyone. And thanks, Chris for all that you do.
morning COFEELADY..
well rainy sunday === HORSES and coffee and FOOTBALL oh and uk at noon on ESPNU.
look like my TGIVING 10 day out window for first measurable snow right on target.
tx Chris THE LEGEND Bailey for keeping us rednecks udated.
Thanks Chris for the daily updates. You’ve been promoting/talking up a late Nov/early Dec winter “break out” for weeks. I’m hoping there’s some reality in there to go along with your optimism!
Good Sunday morning to ya,from down on the border.No rain yet but looks dreary outside.61* and winds are calm….hope everyone has a Blessed Day!
Yeah the NWS predicts KY will have a mild December with above average temps, but they also agree that the start of DEC may have a cold snap.
Do you have the link, Tom? I sure hope we can get some snow out if it. I despise mild Decembers, and of course, last year spoiled us all! So who out there thinks December will be warmer than average? I hope if it is…it’s SLIGHTLY above average, closer to normal, with moisture in ample supply if indeed we do get a cold snap. I get so torn in a given week with the medium to long range forecasts, I really have no idea what to believe anymore. LOL! 😀
ABSOLUTELY no reality to go along with these claims my friend I am sad to report!
All poppycock, wishing and cow patty bingo for long range forecasting!
There are no, repete no long range TC indicators that support a wild Winter for our area (like that is a freeking surprise) Winter has just a much a chance to be warm, dreary and ridiculous as it does for cold and snow. I don’t know where these LR forecasters get the nerve to even put anything out there. But it is a crap shoot and nobody is held accountable, we have no kind of memory so why not get us worked up over it. Mets can cry wolf as much as they want with not much risk of credibility worries.
If that’s how you feel… Then find somewhere else to get your weather information from.