Looking Beyond Florence

Good Monday, folks. Florence continues to slowly work across the eastern half of the state, bringing gusty winds and heavy rains. This system has dominated our coverage for the past week and change, but it’s now time to talk about where we go after this, including some long range stuff. 🙂

Today is rainy and windy across central and eastern Kentucky, and it still looks likely only a local high water threat. Most areas will not see any kind of high water, so that’s awesome!!

Leftover showers will be around on Tuesday with temps back into the 80-85 degree range. Steamy temps then settle back in for Wednesday and Thursday as the numbers climb a few more degrees. Humidity levels continue to run abnormally high… A trend we have seen all year.

A cold front approaches the state by Friday and Saturday and will likely slow down on top of the region this weekend. That likely spells rounds of showers and storms…

There is an amazing build up of early season cold taking place in Canada, with some areas seeing record snowfall for so early in the year. That cold is likely to throw a big jab at us before the month ends…

With this kind of temperature gradient setting up, maybe some fall severe storms?

I mentioned the early season snow in Canada already showing up. Some of that snow may sneak south of the border into the states before September is over. Check out the Ensembles snow forecast for the next two weeks…

GFS Ensembles

European Ensembles

It’s interesting to see the CFS going cold for October…

I’m not sure I’m ready to buy October being that cold of a month. I do think it gives us an early season frost threat, but I don’t think it’s wall to wall cold.

Oh year, FOR ENTERTAINMENT PUROPSES ONLY… the same run of the CFS had mid month flakes deep into the country…

Going out on a limb here and saying that’s not likely to happen. 😉

Here are your tracking tools to start the week…

Make it a great Monday and take care.


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10 Responses to Looking Beyond Florence

  1. Terry says:

    I am glad Chris isn’t fully on board with CFS: They failed us big time for September as the monthly average is way above normal through the 17th. I do want fall and don’t want 90 to flurries in a few weeks. Hopefully CFS is wrong fgor October too!

  2. Schroeder says:

    Thanks Chris for the accuracy on the remnants of tropical storm Florence. Storm rainfall total in my county of Taylor was .22 inches and the wind was minimal. The only thing interesting was the cloud types throughout yesterday. Some meteorologist are predicting that the Atlantic hurricane season has ended for the year ? I’ve been watching the wind patterns in Canada at all levels of the atmosphere and find that the westerlies seem to be keeping the cold and snow well to our north with an exception of a trough in the Pacific Northwest. The cold fronts coming into the Ohio Valley are of Pacific origin ? With the cold fronts stalling does not indicate a change from late summer to Autumn like weather anytime soon. All could change as we get into early November ?

  3. BubbaG says:

    Looks like the main flow was more east. Central apparently didn’t even get the gusts, based on the lack of leaves on the ground. This was wimpy compared to last weekend. Win!

  4. Mike S says:

    Most max rainfall totals have been 1.50″ or less here in Kentucky. Heaviest rainfall has been across West Virginia, though still skirting our far eastern and northeastern communities. Over a 2-day period, it looks like areal flood watches in Kentucky were a good no-call this time around.

    • Terry says:

      1.01 at the house in Harlan Co. so far. It is an underachieving system from what I thought but still made it within Chris’s forecast. We will probably get a dab more wrap around this evening down here which will add to my total a bit. This is the first 1 inch plus of rain in Harlan city since mid-August; we actually needed rain down here!

  5. MarkLex says:

    It’s funny that KLEX (if my math is correct) has over 1.00 of rain the past few hours. I’m surprised I was so sure we would not get that much based on the looks of the radar. There has been some wind, but nothing crazy. Yea – this year humidity has been crazy.

  6. Schroeder says:

    Just check the current temperatures in the central plains. Temperatures in the upper nineties and one reading of hundred degrees or better. Looks like a July heat wave developing for us by Thursday ?

  7. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. We’ve had rain since last night but its been mostly steady. as of yesterday evening we had had almost an inch. Haven’t gotten to check it today as I’ve been at work, but as soon as I get home I will. I would guess 1 1/2 to 2 inches here. As I said, we’ve had a good steady rain. Hope everyone’s Monday has been ok, and Chris, I sure hope you are feeling better! Have a good rest of the day all!

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