A Very Active Pattern Continues

Good Tuesday, everyone. We are rolling our way into another steamy setup for the rest of the week. This steam is going to give way to storms by the coming weekend. That’s when a cold front moves in and slows down on top of the region.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Temps surge into the upper 80s west, with 80-85 for the rest of the state. A few showers or storms will be noted from time to time.

Highs for Wednesday and Thursday will reach deep into the 80s and may even hit 90 in the west. High humidity levels will continue to be noted.

A cold front drops into the region later Friday into Saturday and becomes stationary. The end result will be rounds of showers and storms…

Locally heavy rains are a good bet during this time. I will focus more on this over the next few days.

I talked about all that amazing amount of early season snow and cold up in Canada and how that cold is likely to make a run at us to end the month and kick off October.

Check out the deeeeeeeeeeeeeep trough on the European Ensembles…

That thumb ridge in Alaska and western Canada is a thing of beauty and is something snow and cold lovers want to see as we head into the cold weather season.

Yesterday, I posted the CFS maps that were trying to bring a taste of early season winter action into the Ohio Valley. These are really just for fun to look at, but they have been doing a really good job in showing all this wet weather. Now, we have a second seasonal model suggesting some October flake action. Here’s the European Ensembles through October…

That’s interesting and may actually have some merit. Why? The crazy cold in Canada isn’t just going to disappear.

Oh yeah… the same model run keeps us above normal on rains…


I leave you with your tracking toys for the day.

Make it a great day and take care.

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10 Responses to A Very Active Pattern Continues

  1. MarkLex says:

    So for the year so far precip for both Lex and Louisville are both just above 49 inches (at least at the airports) which is above normal, but still, there are over 3 months left. Since I’ve lived here starting in 1996, we definitely have more above normal rainfall years than drought years.
    That ridge in western Gulf seems like a thing now. I’ve heard Chris talk about this for like the last 5 years.

    • Terry says:

      More so than the highs, the lows have been ridiculous warm for September average. Currently, I am at 70 as I type this and I hit 69 at some point earlier in the night. The average low in Harlan is 56 now but I have not reached below 60 yet this month. The average month-to-date temp so far is 76 which normal for August and not September!

      Considering that I am in one of the drier areas of the state this year, I am already closing in on 48 inches year-to-date. Many areas of the state should have already exceeded annual rainfall and we still have a little over a quarter if the year to go☺

  2. Terry says:

    All of the stink bugs are beginning to storm the house: Nature knows when the cold is coming. I tell you though with poor grammar on purpose, we just don’t have fronts stall out in late September, we just dont! The weather trend this year has been anything but typical. Would it really surprise many of us if we go from around 90 at the end of September to flurries in mid October, no It wouldnt!

    • Schroeder says:

      Terry I agree with your post. The night temperatures have been noticeably warmer for the past several years, ever since the great drought in the late 1980’s. This I suspect is actually a climate change event ?

    • Schroeder says:

      We have Asia Beetles to contend with at my house. As soon as it freezes in the Fall here they come in swarms by the billions to look for a place to hibernate which is my home. They are now considered a health risk in the entire United States and there is no control over this insect pest. I have allergies all winter long from this pest. Thank you USDA !

  3. Schroeder says:

    That stationary cold front of Pacific origin stalling over the Ohio Valley will only produce the heaviest rains along and north of the front. My county is way south which means a few clouds and a slight chance of showers with continued heat and humidity. The beautiful map showing all the Arctic air in the eastern parts of United States and Canada and with a strong ridge up into Alaska reminds me of the fall and winter of 1976-77 and 1977-78. Which I believe now was a climate change event. For that to happen the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation would have to go to a very negative phase along with ENSO El nino in the weak phase. It’s fun to look at and I hope we have more snow this coming winter ? But for now it looks like we have a lot of summer weather to except. #climatechangeevent

  4. Schroeder says:

    This is my last comment on Hurricane Florence. This particular hurricane according to scientist was unusual as it’s path was due west from where it formed off the Cape Islands off of Africa. Meteorologist have never seen a path like this before as most hurricanes form more in the southeast Atlantic and then move up the coast or go inland and out. Hurricane Florence slowed down as it moved towards the coast of North Carolina and stalled because it was held stationary by two unusually strong high pressure systems both northwest and northeast of the storm. Major wind and flooding for days resulted along with very sad fatalities. Remembering last year along the southeast coast of Texas Hurricane Harvey rained for days because of two unusually strong high pressure systems held the storm in place. I ask myself what is going on ? Are the high pressures getting larger and stronger ? If so what natural feature is causing this ? My guess would be the Sun. I think the Sun is actually getting hotter ? Is this the main factor of climate change ?

  5. Bernard P. Fife says:

    Not falling for the snow ensembles, they tricked us multiple times last winter.

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