A Major Pattern Change Ahead

Good Thursday, folks. As we head into the closing days of September, the overall weather pattern is threatening to take a walk on the wild side. The setup will take us from a very warm one to a very cool, if not downright chilly one. With that transition will come plenty of rain and storms. Unfortunately, we could be looking at too much rain at times.

Let’s start with the summer steam of today. Temps and humidity levels are both running high and that will lead to isolated showers and storms going back up…

A cold front approaches the region from the northwest late Friday, touching off showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms may be strong or locally severe. Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…

That boundary hangs around through the weekend with waves of showers and a few thunderstorms showing up. While it won’t rain the entire weekend, it’s going to be difficult to pinpoint when those waves roll in and the dry hours between them. One thing is for sure… Temps will be much cooler. Some areas may stay deep into the 60s for highs.

Some serious chill invades the middle of the country early next week and will move in here by the end of the week. That transition is likely to produce a lot of rain across our region. A southwest to northeast flow will setup shop, leading to the potential for way too much rain. Take a look at the model rain numbers through next week…

The European

The GFS

A significant fall cold front moves through later Wednesday and Thursday, bringing a dramatic temperature drop.

Another front sweeps in behind that by Friday and Saturday with even colder air. Highs behind this front may stay in the 50s for a few days with lows that can drop into the 30s…

My “early season frost potential” thoughts from a few weeks ago are in the ballgame, at least. 😉

Better yet, go ahead and get your chili ingredients chili shopping done. I smell a full blown alert cooking.

Early season flake potential continues to show up VERY far south for the end of September and first few days of November.

European Ensembles

Have a great Thursday and take care.


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17 Responses to A Major Pattern Change Ahead

  1. Terry says:

    COOL…no pun intended☺

  2. Schroeder says:

    A major change in the overall weather pattern may be coming sometime, but no one knows for sure when this will occur ? In the meantime we are under the influence of a huge upper level high pressure system that extends from the Atlantic all the way to Denver, Colorado. This means that this late summer weather will continue until the high pressure system erodes. Today, in my county of Taylor it is forecast to be mostly sunny and a high of ninety two degrees. I must say this has been one of the most uncomfortable summer’s I have seen since 1979. #climatechange

    • Bryant says:

      This is why I like to read the post in it’s entirety. CB clearly explains the process. You either A. failed to read it. B. or continuing a long term troll job on this blog. I wouldn’t doubt it’s B, considering your hashtag climate change posts every day.

      Also, this is not the most uncomfortable summer ever. We had hot summers that extended well into September back in the 1980’s.

      • winter lover says:

        I’m not sold on about the climate change theory myself. The weather comes in cycle’s and yes Schroeder has doubt CB weather forecast here lately. But he is entitled to his opinion

  3. Schroeder says:

    I lost count on the number of fogy mornings we have had this summer ? I would make a guess at lease sixty mornings of fog. As weather folklore goes we are looking at record snowfall this coming winter. Something for us snow lovers to look forward to. You might laugh at this folklore but there have been reports that this has panned out in years past.

    • Jamie says:

      I’ve heard that folklore, and I don’t know about a connection there, but I do pay attention to nature’s signals. There’s been an early leaf fall among our oak trees, and the squirrels are incredibly busy right now. They are sensing the change coming. As this ball of rock flies around the sun, the heat must fade and Fall must arrive eventually.

  4. winter lover says:

    Bring it on!! I’m ready for the seasonal change as fall season is my favorite time of the year. As far upcoming winter Let It snow! let it snow!

  5. Mike S says:

    Dare we say this pattern change will shut down the 90’s for the rest of the year? Now that would be a significant pattern change.

    • winter lover says:

      Mike ,Canada is experiencing an early cold and snow as of now. As far this might be our last 90″s for the year very well could be. Remember how it went from winter to summer last spring? It could go from summer to winter this year and time will only tell.

  6. Virgil E says:

    I’m officially getting depressed now. No joke! Seasonal Depression strikes me this time of year and doesn’t let up until March.

  7. Virgil E says:

    I’m officially getting depressed now. Seasonal Depression strikes me this time of year and doesn’t let up until March.

  8. Nasdaq says:

    those long range models for winter, are almost to good to be true for Kentucky…

  9. Rickie H says:

    One of my friends had posted on Facebook today, she had opened three different persimmon seeds and all three had spoons. Our older folks say that if the persimmon seed have spoons we are going to be shoveling snow. I do think it’s quite funny how the farmers almanac is predicting a very cold and snowy winter for us. The old farmers almanac is predicting a wet and mild winter for us. Myself I’ll like the snow and I hope we have some.
    We can look at it like this ,we have a 50/50 chance of a lot of snow
    Thank you Chris for your service toward your blog. I read it daily and it helps me keep heads up on things

  10. Double A says:

    Bring on the cold and snow! I HATE the heat!!!
    Thank you Chris, for your blog. I read it every morning, and check it again in the afternoons for updates!!!

  11. MarkLex says:

    I never EVER think of September as a cooler month. I remember plenty of times it’s been hot like this. This is normal. That being said, the low temps are definitely abnormal. I can always tell my AC struggles during full sun days at this time of day (3 to 7pm). That sun makes the attic hotter than 1000 Texas suns. I think the attic heat radiates into the house and the AC is trying to fight it. I wouldn’t doubt it. These new homes they build are SO CHEAP.

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