Tropical Rains and A Fall Cold Front Ahead

Good Sunday, everyone. The setup for the week ahead continues to look pretty wild as a tropical system meets up with a fall cold front. Those two will work in tandem to bring another big rain maker to the bluegrass state, with a serious fall chill to follow.

Let’s begin with the latest on our tropical system that will become Michael…

cone graphic

This is likely to become a Tropical Storm later today and has a chance at becoming a low-end hurricane before heading toward the central Gulf Coast late Tuesday and early Wednesday.

From there, a fall cold front plowing in from the west is likely to siphon up tropical moisture well ahead of this system, leading to heavy rains. The exact inland track of this system remains to be seen, but I’m sticking with my map I put together on Friday…

That’s similar to the track of Opal from October of 1995, but it should never approach the intensity of Opal. It’s a track that would bring heavy rains to our region, making this the 4th tropical system of the season to do so. Pretty crazy, eh?

The operational models continue to pick up on this scenario. The first model to show this was the Canadian and it keeps going with it…

The new version of the GFS was the next to lock in…

The soon to be outdated GFS waffles back and forth between Kentucky and the Carolinas…

The latest track forecasts from the hurricane models continue to bend west from their previous runs…

All things considered, we will need to be on guard for another heavy rain event Wednesday and Thursday. Given how amazingly wet the ground is, high water may once again become a problem.

MUCH cooler air comes in behind the rain with temps going below normal Thursday and Friday. Another system moves in with chilly showers Saturday. An extended run of highs in the 50s may be on tap, with the chance for frost or freezing temps.

I will have another update coming your way later today.

In terms of today’s weather, scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to flare up. These storms can unleash some local cloudbursts, so be on guard for that.

I leave you with your tracking tools…

Enjoy your Sunday and take care.

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3 Responses to Tropical Rains and A Fall Cold Front Ahead

  1. Terry says:

    After this mess moves out, we should FINALLY see the famous ‘Pot of Chili’ Alert. Late this year, but never too late for chili☺.

    I can eat chili year round but there is something about having to have it when it first gets cold!

    • TennMark says:

      Several of our neighbors are still using their swimming pools. One even called the company that services their cement pond (with apologies to Granny Clampett) to delay closing it for the season. Who can blame them?!

  2. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Loving the Florida weather we we having right now. Just hope it continues and we are not in rain all the way home. But when we get home I’ll be ready to wear long pants….maybe.

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