Good Monday everyone. Let me begin by saying a big thanks for all the reports and tweets about the weather where you live and the kind comments for my coverage. I appreciate all you do for our rapidly growing weather community. You guys are the heart and soul of this thing and your reports are valuable to forecasters across the state. We are really going to rely upon you over the next few days as we continue to see a dangerous situation unfolding for many areas.

A recap of our weekend finds…

– Dozens of severe weather reports.

– Several confirmed tornado touchdowns.

– Flooding rains of greater than 6″ for some.

In looking at the setup for the next few days… I have to ask one question. Is the worst of this yet to come? I believe the answer to be yes as this is a VERY potent situation capable of several rounds of severe weather and more torrential rains.

Here is breakdown of what I expect…

– The greatest risk for heavy rain and thunderstorms will be across western and far northern Kentucky today as the axis shifts a bit farther north. Still… scattered storms will be possible anywhere.

– Severe storms will be a good possibility once again today… especially in the west.

– Temps in southern and eastern Kentucky can really take off today with a bit of sun. Readings can soar well into the 80s with a nice case of the muggies.

– Things will REALLY begin to crank up for the entire state Tuesday into Wednesday as our front inches a bit eastward. This happens as waves of low pressure track northward along the front. The setup can produce a significant outbreak of severe weather for much of the Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley. This wouldn’t be one and done storm action as several rounds of severe storms will be likely.

– These storms will also bring more flooding rains to the region with several inches being likely. This may encompass more of the state than what we have seen so far. Here is the HPC rain forecast for this week…



– This would create more flash flooding and will only add to the serious river flooding already in progress. Moderate to Major flooding is forecast along some points of the Ohio River. From Paducah to the Mississippi River… the Mighty Ohio is forecast to approach record levels. Farther upstream toward Louisville and Covington… minor to low end moderate flooding is forecast. Toward Maysville and Ashland… the river is expected to near flood stage. River forecasts are subject to change based on actual rainfall verses forecast rainfall.

Here is what you guys need to track things today…

Rainfall Since Midnight



Radars…










Today’s Severe Storms Outlook

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current Watches
Current Watches

Tuesday Severe Threat
1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook

Wednesday Severe Threat
1730 UTC Day 3 Outlook

I will have updates as needed and will send out quick thoughts and warnings through twitter. Follow me at Kentuckyweather or follow along in the twitter feed on the right side of the blog.

Take care.