Good afternoon, folks. New Year’s Eve continues to look very active across the bluegrass state as another massive storm targets the region. Heavy rain, high winds and severe thunderstorms look to sweep across Kentucky, causing some issues along the way.
- Rain moves in tonight and will be heavy at times as a warm front lifts northward through the state.
- Warmer air moves in for Monday and temps surge into the 60s central and eastern Kentucky.
- A squall line of showers and thunderstorms will sweep eastward across the state during the afternoon and evening.
- Heavy rains of 1″-3″ will be possible during this event, especially in the west and central parts of Kentucky.
- Some, at least, local high water issues will be possible.
- High winds are going to be a major player and could reach between 50mph and 60mph. Another round of wind damage is possible with this event.
- A few strong to severe storms are possible across much of the state. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible in this environment.
The Storm Prediction Center now has a Marginal to Slight Risk for much of the state…
The storm that comes after this is still in the “YTBD” category. This likely brings rain and snow to Kentucky Thursday into Friday, but there are too many unanswered questions remaining for me to be more specific than that.
The GFS continues to see the storm, but it cannot figure out what to do with it. The morning run of the model teased us…
The same model run from 6 hours earlier dropped the snow hammer on us…
That actually matches what the Canadian Model has been showing for a few days. The new Canadian shows the same thing…
The new version of the GFS is a cross between the Canadian and GFS…
The European Model continues to be the slowest with the whole evolution and that’s likely because of the model bias of holding energy too long in the southwest. That leads to a farther west solution…
That just looks odd, but we shall see.
I will drop by for another update this evening. Have a good one and take care.
SE KY will have flooding with the mid-week storm unless the push of weak cold air after tomorrow’s storm can keep the new low farther SE. I actually think tomorrow’s rain may come in a little higher in east KY, if t-storms can get cranking!
For Mike S….I think you have the record in the bag tomorrow. With weather, it is never official until an event occurs, but your chance of greater than .68 is very high for Louisville!
It seems like a lock, but I’ve seen my share of surprises.
Just reviewed the winter forecast prediction.
Certainly not colder than normal an no 3-6 inches of snow.
Maybe weather trends flip in January.
Thanks Chris. Been a calm weekend so far in the Cleveland area. Supposed to rain here tomorrow too. How is Tuesday looking for travelling? We are headed back then and I am hoping that the severe stuff is over and done with by then. In any event, we’ve had fun, and look forward to tomorrow with our kids. Have a good evening everyone