Good Wednesday, everyone. Temps continue to tank today as much colder winds blow in from the northwest. This is being accompanied by a few flakes of snow and looks to be the opening act for a bigger event this weekend. A developing winter storm looks to target much of the bluegrass state.
Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Temps hang into the 30-35 degree range for many, but gusty winds make it feel like the upper teens and low 20s. Those northwest winds should also crank out a few flurries or light snow showers. The best chance for that is across the central and east…
Thursday starts with wind chills around 10 degrees and ends with wind chills in the low 20s. Skies will be partly cloudy.
That brings us to our weekend winter storm system. Here are some thoughts:
- The timeline on this potential winter storm is Friday night through Sunday night
- This system is different than the systems we’ve had over the past month. It has cold air already in place and a cold high to the north.
- The track of the low is pretty much west to east across the southern states, then it tries to turn the corner up the coast.
- This low will have an inverted trough into the lower Ohio Valley. That funnels moisture into the cold air, producing accumulating snow for many.
- Still, the southern half of the state may see this switch to a rain/snow mix or plain rain for a time on Saturday and Saturday night.
- All of this should go back over to snow and light snow on Sunday.
- For areas getting in on all snow for the duration of the event, several inches of snow will be likely.
Here’s a map of my current line of thinking…
Keep in mind those lines may shift north or south over the next few days. An upgrade to a Winter Storm THREAT may come later today if confidence comes up just a bit.
As far as the forecast models go, we see them with the same general idea, but they are vastly different with the amount of precipitation across the region.
The European Model isn’t holding back…
In my last update, I posted an article on how the government shutdown is negatively impacting the American models like the GFS and NAM. There’s no one around to maintain these models, so the skill scores are apparently dropping off. So, I guess we have to take them with a grain of salt.
Anyway here’s the GFS…
The average snowfall map from the 21 member GFS Ensembles looks like this…
The Canadian…
Once again, let’s wait and see what the model trends are through today and even into Thursday. Don’t get excited or depressed by any one model run.
Updates come your way later today. Make it a good one and take care.
Can this system actually materialize this time?
I think will materialize but I’m feeling that we as snow lovers were going to be disappointed with rain getting involved hope I’m wrong but my feeling is a big sloppy mess plus the cold air is so marginal I’m along the river here in nw ky but it seems when rain can get involved rain usually wins out I’ll wait and see but I’m not getting my hopes up
Good thing I am grocery shopping Friday night.
Yep….just as I figured….I will be in the switch to rain area….
I think we all will be…except for maybe northern ky, lot of rain again I’m afraid
I think we all pretty much switch to rain, except for maybe people north of 64…..still see more rain than snow coming with this one, for most of us. Look for that snow line to get pushed farther north by Friday… these models, as we all know, basically just mean that it is going to do something somewhere, at this point haha…. check back on Friday morning
Cold heavy rain always reigns supreme in southern and SSE KY 98% of the time. Been saying it for several years now…welcome to the “new” Pacific Northwest At least we had 4 days of Spring like weather.
Starting to show greater than an inch of rain our region on WPC….good thing we had a brief dry spell. LOL
Service unavailable at 630am. OH NO, I know what that means! I’m going to the grocery store this morning and get ready. haha.
I don’t care what falls on this coming weekend as long it’s not ICE. I have seen enough snow and ice in my lifetime and now I’am focusing on spring or summer with temperatures in the 70’s and low 80’s and low dew points ! And I might add without severe weather and heavy rains every other day. But I feel for the young folks who want a major snow and I hope you all receive the exact amount you want just not in my county.
Just I suspected, this is headed towards being a north of the Ohio River snow or maybe an I70 system. And the wedge is also beginning to show up more and more pushing the rain up to I64 in WV. Time will tell but the I don’t like the trends.
Yep
Nobody should get down yet. We’re 60+ hours out from this one. I’d say all of KY still in play for a lot of snow. Rodger in Dodger
The euro looks to have shifted north last night. Any chance that comes back down to where it originally was?
Nope
If it were to rain on this weekend again after getting rain all year again because of stupid mountain wedge that is a bunch of crap and why I hate living in this state at times in winter times. So sick of rain rain rain.
Thanks Chris. Just watching and waiting. Have a great hump day everyone! One question though, on KYt this morning the Frisy. Giggles thru Sunday showed up on the map bit when Jim was on Fox 56 it was showing Sunday into Monday. I’m confused!
Almost every model has shifted significantly north. So much so looks like all of kentucky will be in the warm air with a dry slot over all but the extreme northern edges of kentucky
Wrong
Actually perfectly right this is coming in stronger and shifting north 100 percent kentucky gets less than one inch of snow
Actually, the initial band of snow could put down some accumulation for many before the mix commences, according to 12z run of the NAM
According to chris… gfs has came in colder…soooo guess we will see bud
Correct, the armchairs have been saying that would probably happen..haha… north of 64 for sure
Lotsasnow no matter what winter storm it is always has Lotsadoubt.
I think there is room for it to go back south bit statistically that doesn’t happen.
I’m just thankful for this dry stretch. Friday would be 7 days in a row of sunshine. That coupled with the crazy wind has really dried it out. My little farm hasn’t been this dry in two months!
Misses to the North, East, South and West everytime, LUL. Hate Snow? Move to SE KY…Bring back the 90’s snow.
Or bring back the 60 degree temps.
SE KY is the coldest, snowiest part of the state…LOL.
We are almost at year 2020 and they need to make forecasts that differentiate between elevation where most actually live in SE KY. I am sick and tired of seeing Harlan under a winter storm Warning when it is for elevations above 2,000 ft but not with a clear message to the general public.
Sometimes, and kudos to NWS, they actually specify elevation snow forecast differences within both watches/advisories and warnings but we need improvement. They even base our highs and lows too much on topography and show the valleys WAY WARMER than what we are in winter and much COOLER than we actually are in summer!
Still, most local weather forecasts can’t understand how much warmer the VALLEY AREAS are in SE KY during snow/winter waether events were over 90% of the population is….this is why people down this way have even less faith in meteorology than many people away from here. RANT OVER!
Great Rant Terry ! Hope the pattern changes to a southeast shift and you and Jimbo each get a foot of snow. Right now does not look good for a good old fashion snowstorm anywhere in the state of Kentucky. We still have February and March to go through so maybe then. For me I don’t care what the weather does. You young people will get that way too when you get old like me.
Schroeder, you care your comments in the past about the weather say otherwise.
I’m a lot older now more than you think with health problems. I am also alone and that’s why I like being on this blog.
We’ll be talking NAM today…still, let it play out a little more through tomorrow evening
The negativity in the comment section lately is tiresome…guys and gals relax…my goodness, it’s not life or death lol
Yeah I agree during the winter months the blog comments become much more hostile. People take snow seriously. In the summer months ( my favorite time of the year) the blog comments dwindle down with a lot less hostility.
Yeah. We only gripe about excess rain then. If the whole weekly summer forecast is dry/hot, comments can dwindle to one or a few a day only:)
Isn’t that the truth. Happens every year at this point. Can’t do anything about the weather. One suggestion Is to quit following the models until the storm has hit the pacific coast. Then you can start monitoring and decide what you like.
90% of the time storms of this magnitude generally pull North. This one seems a little different IMO. High pressure to the North may help keep it further South. I am still holding out, as the maps indicate above, for the Ohio River (fence) counties north get the heavier precipitation in the form of snow. Parkways south snow to rain. Won’t really know until Friday/Saturday when it all starts falling so I will just sit back and enjoy the comments section.
Folks, remember that these types of winter storms are now-casting events. One model will be a little warmer, another a touch colder. Much of KY will be on the fence and conditions will change every hour during it. Mother Nature is unpredictable but tracking this is fun! Rodger in Dodger
Thanks to the defective twit in the White House and morons like McConnell propping him up, lots of stuff going downhill besides models.
Agreed.
Forget about those weather models. They are nothing more than a computer game. I remember when they forecast snow it did snow but we hardly ever got out of school even when it snowed eight inches. We use to have snowball fights, build snowmen and snow forts at recess and the ponds always froze over for ice skating. Just plain winter fun. The climate now has really change for the warmer and that’s okay by me but I’m concerned for the future younger population that they will miss out on all the winter fun I had growing up. I need to stop now before I begin to cry
It’s gotta be your hormones
Just messing with ya. Times have changed from the winter of the 70’s I agree
Make models great again..