Good evening, folks. We have cold winds and a few snowflakes showing up right on cue. This is the opening act to a much bigger system moving in by late Friday and taking us through the upcoming weekend.
Before we break down the latest on the weekend, snow showers and flurries will continue to fly across parts of the region this evening into later tonight…
Wind chills are way, way down overnight into Thursday.
In terms of the weekend storm, it’s still too early for anything specific, but here’s a general idea of how this may play out…
Keep in mind those lines may be adjusted north or south over the next few days.
Let’s do a quick check of the models to see how they are looking…
The European Model has a fairly strong system and that’s the farrthest north with the storm system. Here’s the snow map from this latest run from WeatherBell…
The average of the 51 member European Ensembles (WeatherBell) is similar…
The European Model (WeatherBell) control run…
That looks similar to the new version of the GFS…
The actual GFS has much lower totals across the board with this system…
The average of the 21 members from the GFS Ensembles suggest those to be too low…
The ICON model has a similar look to the GFS, but isn’t as choppy looking…
As this pattern continues to skew strongly toward winter over the next few weeks, the ensembles are cranking out additional snow threats after this one…
GFS
Euro
I will have another update on WKYT-TV at 11 and here on KWC later tonight. Make it a good one and take care.
Bowling green always misses out :/
although this upcoming storm is mediocre (ish) in terms of snowfall…… like you said after this, winter continues to grow – which wouldn’t surprise me based on the past ten years. It’s not just us that’s not snowy it’s a lot of the country – but that can change.
A decent hit for Louisville.
Iffy for WKY as always…
Yeah, winter is so done lol. 😉
Bring it!!
Thanks Chris. Winter is just getting started….so we’ve got a long way to go. Still gonna wait and see what happens and what Chris says about it. I know we are going to see rain here. What else is new? But we could get surprised. Have a good evening all. Chris, we will be watching and waiting on the edge of our seats on this one.
I live in southern ohio local mets here say mix for us this weekend
Looks like most of the locals in the Huntington/ tri-state are staying on board the rain train.
Best case seems an ankle biter, so probably why no threat mode.
I’ll laugh when you are wrong.
CB is saying a few inches, so you gonna laugh at him too? That’s cold!
I live near Reedy, WV. It looks like mostly all snow here for the weekend. Perhaps snow changing to some rain but changing back to snow. We got a bit today, too.
Creeping farther north with each run…. looking more and more like a dud for most of the state.
Not according to the nam…even colder
Link?
Ummmm no it’s not.
Thank you for putting naysayers in their place.
It’s not creeping north, or the NAM is not showing colder?? It looks like the greatest threat for snow line has moved north some from previous models to me, closer to and possibly beyond 64???
My money is on the GFS…
Seems best to take the average of the models, rather than cherry picking the snowiest one. That usually results in a self inflicted let down.
Hey everyone. I have participated on and off on this blog for the past decade. Yes, decade. This is a free service that Chris provides us. His track record is pretty daggone good. Even if I weren’t ( but which it is ), it’s STILL his Blog! Here’s hoping for snow but if we don’t get it, C’est la Vie…..thank you Mr Bailey.
Amazing how different forecasts can be from one local MET to the next.
The Louisville majority of MET’s don’t seem impressed at all and view this as more of a rainmaker? Uh…ok then.
Same in Huntington WV area.
Let’s hope we get a big snow here in Southern Indiana.
Thanks for all you do CB. Just let my dog out, and there are some flakes flying here in LOU. Hoping to get the sleds our this weekend. ⛄️