Good afternoon, everyone. Bitterly cold temps continue across the region on this Martin Luther King, Junior Day. Temps this morning hit zero or below in several areas, putting the wraps on one amazing weekend of weather. But, we have no time to rest because more winter weather is on the way by Wednesday.
This is a system that has the chance to throw some decent winter precipitation accumulations on us after a period of rain. That rain breaks out along and ahead of a cold front moving in by Tuesday night and Wednesday. A major temp drop occurs just behind the front, with a lot of precipitation still falling. That results in a change from rain to sleet and freezing rain then snow.
The forecast models vary on how fast the cold catches the deepest moisture. The GFS is mainly central and eastern Kentucky…
The NAM is much faster…
The new version of the GFS is also faster and has much more precipitation showing up…
That is likely overdone, but a situation where the cold catches the moisture quickly is not out of the realm of possibility.
The setup for Wednesday through Thursday morning may require a threat before today is over.
Beyond that, an arctic front brings a period of light snow or snow showers in here Friday. Then it’s game on toward bigger systems diving in and trying to amplify this weekend into early next week…
GFS
Canadian
I will have the latest on WKYT starting at 4 and will have another KWC update this evening. Have a good one and take care.
Thanks Chris. Well at least it looks like we have a better chance at seeing some snow this week in my part of the state! That would be nice . Looking forward ( I think) 😉 to the next update. Stay warm friends, and informed! Check the blog and watch WKYT! Have a good afternoon all.
Looks like things are about to get interesting…
Thanks Chris. Wouldn’t mind a nice clipper to being even an inch of snow here to east TN.
It’s gotten to the point that “true” winter begins about the middle of January and runs through mid March! Yes, there are the occasional exceptions but the general trend for late winters is becoming prevalent!
Would really love to use those snow days we have built in. Maybe the next few weeks will do it. Chris forecasts TN Plateau better than any of our local METs.
Well, I am excited but not overly excited yet. I don’t like being on the edge of every model in Harlan; however, I don’t want to be in the sweet spot this far out either. It will be fun to watch this one.
I never like a situation with cold chasing the moisture, it’s usually always a dusting to an inch. As for clipper systems, they have been extremely weak the last 4 or 5 years. As always wait and see.
I agree about cold chasing precip. Rarely though, you can actually get a thumping with the setup similar to what we have for Wednesday. Last time I saw it work out was in December 2010 in SE KY. We had heavy rain with the cold overtaking for the last about 4 hours of the precip. We ended up with 6 inches in the valley but close to a foot high up. We actually had power outages with the wet snow!
When is this snow supposed to hit? Wed-Thurs? I haven’t heard a thing about a possible 2-5 inches in the KV locally.
So the flip is on. Fun and games not only for us here in Kentucky. I see the snow line deep into the southern states before winter is said and done! Harshish period of winter is going to happen at the coldest point, to avg, of our winter season. IMO Things are about to get real interesting for much of the state.
Thanks Chris for the update.
NWS in there afternoon/evening discussion isn’t impressed with any system from Wednesday-Monday. NWS thinking maybe a half inch of snow Wednesday night and for the weekend flurries/light snow chances will be there but with little moisture to work with.
Which NWS?
Louisville
As long as no big ice, I’m good 🙂
Agreed
Two days of true cold, and I’m done… I’m ready for spring haha
Maysville Corkey’s tweets during the storm were really appreciated.
i still do not see temp in the 40’s tomorrow with all the snow thats on the ground.
0 snow here and hasn’t been all season unless you count the dusting