Good evening, everyone. Another big temperature swing will lead to more winter weather rolling in here on Wednesday. This is a setup that can throw down accumulating snow into much of the region, with additional snow makers lurking this weekend into next week.
Let’s focus this update on the Wednesday-Thursday setup. It’s a cold front working through here as a wave of low pressure develops along the boundary. Rain along and ahead of the front changes to a mix and snow behind it as temps crash.
Where that marriage of the cold and deeper moisture happens is still in dispute with slight differences showing up on the models.
The NAM likes that hookup in the west then rolling east. You can also see the arctic front with some more showing up behind that by Thursday night…
Here’s the NAM snow map through Thursday morning…
You can see the better snows across the east because they get the moisture from the wave of low pressure. The GFS isn’t quite as snowy as the NAM, but also has better stuff in the east…
The European Model has a similar theme across central and eastern Kentucky…
The new version of the GFS continues to be on steroids with the precipitation amounts with this setup…
Again, that model has no friends at the moment.
The WPC has the eastern half of Kentucky in the slight risk area for 4″+ snows out of this…
Let’s see how the evening models shape up. I’ll share those later tonight. Enjoy the evening and take care.
Bummer! I was wanting a Threat but there just isnt enough there yet and agree with Chris waiting a while. Still, I think we might get a bit in this snow starved SE KY area, especially up high.
The days just fly by when your a weather junkie like me.
95% of the time snow fans will be disappointed in a “cold catching the moisture” setup like this. Let’s get the cold settled in and then get a good old southern low to develop and roll thru the mid MS Valley! Rodger in Dodger
It’s Monday, I know… I’m mixed up to with the holiday actually seems like Sunday.
Shades of 1993 super storm showing up next Monday on the new GFS..Of course don’t trust anything the FV3 spits out..Still fun to look at and of course needing a NW swift..
Always best to ‘need’ the NW shift days out! Poor Deep South but maybe good for us:)
Its in la la land but you never know..The FV3 to me is like the Nam.Not to be trusted..Sure it will be gone on tonight’s run anyways..lol..Thinking about changing username to Rain-Forest..Maybe it will change our luck..
Thanks Chris. After looking at the model runs you’ve shared I have to think that we at least have a shot at seeing some snow in south central and southeastern Ky, But I will wait and see what you and the models say over night and tomorrow. Have a good evening all and stay warm!
Well WKY will miss this one….waiting on the later ones
Rain event Wednesday night for central
The nam shows no snow for any of ky wed/thurs. is this legit or just a faulty model run?
Don’t think anyone can deny the old GFS has been perhaps the best this season thus far. Haven said that, am I the only one who thinks the new GFS is utter garbage?
As Saturday nite proved just a little snow was forecast, 2.5 inches in Frankfort was nice, Nowcast is always best in most of KY.
GFS Snowfal through early next week:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019012200/gfs_asnow_neus_32.png