Good Tuesday, folks. Another winter weather maker is rolling toward Kentucky and will bring rain to a mix then snow later Wednesday. This starts a pattern of fast-moving winter weather makers through the weekend and into next week. Each system has the potential to produce snow and ushering arctic cold shots.
Temps today warm into the 40s on a gusty southwesterly wind as clouds thicken. These clouds are ahead of a cold front moving in for Wednesday. Rain develops ahead of this system, but a quick temperature drop behind the front means a period of mixed precipitation and snow. The models continue to disagree on exactly how the cold and the precipitation interact, but odds favor the eastern half of the state for the best potential for snow with this.
The European Model continues to show this well…
The GFS is similar…
The extreme models are the NAM and new version of the GFS. One has basically nothing, while the other continues to be on steroids…
NAM
New GFS
I’ll get you a risk map and first call out later today. Regardless of exact snow amounts, a quick drop in temps means icy roads will develop from Wednesday evening into early Thursday.
Another band of light snow or snow showers will arrive Thursday night along a weak arctic boundary. Another weak system may bring some light snow or flurries later Friday with another possible this weekend. The Canadian likes this one best…
The GFS and European Models are have that as more of a light snow event, with a bigger system following by later Monday and Tuesday…
That’s a lot of action over the next week and any one of those systems could amplify into something much deeper, but may not show up that way until a few days before.
Updates come your way later today. Make it a good one and take care.
Unsettled for sure it looks like.
Yoda, you are correct 😉
That said, counting the last two events, total snow might be 5″ at best. Seems Snowdog is more bark than bite so far.
Still I’m banking on one 6 to 8 incher this winter 🙂 Like Tom Petty, I’m not backing down either.
Dang, I wish I had 5 inches for the season-to-date down here in Harlan (valley). I am sitting at 2.75 in snow, which mostly fell back in late fall with the upslope event at the very end of November. I know 2015 was a late start but we are even behind that season, well in SE KY we are. Northern KY and parts of Central/Western are close to seasonal average but way below average down my way, so far.
Good point, since Richmond would need four more inches to get to five…. Mostly bark for Snowdog.
This is not correct.
Not to date, but counting through the coming weekend chances and that’s optimistic, rather than likely. The snow maps so far have been lucky to yield the minimums.
6.4″ so far this winter on the east end of Louisville. 5.7″ “officially” in Louisvile at the Airport (heat island).
I think Covington (airport) has measured 16.7 inches of snow so far this season. Seems like the last 2 systems have overachieved right at the airport compared to other Northern Kentucky locations, such as where I live, not to mention the rest of Kentucky of course…
Is it me or is the big missing piece causing our snowless winter so far the NAO? I thought for sure the PV split would have had some influence over blocking other than just the AO but nothing is happening throwing off our blocking teleconnections. Now, the cold to come looks like it if has no real staying power next week. This is good for heating concerns, but no promising for a lot of snow. Sigh!
not promising
Thanks Chris. I’m not buying the NAM, it hasn’t been great. But then neither have the other models. I still think east KY and TN have a brief slush Thursday morning. But the weekend certainly seems promising. Too much pacific activity at the moment to pin anything down.
I for one likes snow but as long the cold air doesn’t lock in there’s no chances of a blockbuster of one. It’s seems each system that comes thru a warm front always attached ahead of the cold frobt.
Thanks Chris. Looks like you may have picked a good time to take that four day weekend. IF one of these systems should blow up, you may be a busy weather dude for sure. A cold and crisp 17 degrees here in Somerset this morning, at least at our house. The sunshine today should work to perk us up some before the next round. Have a great day and stay warm all. Waiting for the next update….always! 😉
Wow! Some Arctic Blast/ Big Shift! Temps forecasted for Thursday 35, Saturday 37, Sunday 42, and Monday 46. More of the same!
Yeah, I hate to say it, but this is turning into much ado about nothing.
Not in the least bit true.
Depends on where you live.
Sounds like you need Spring. Sorry it’s too cold for you, perhaps 70 degrees ok? How about a little rain to go with that? And a small frosty, please
Since those temperatures do average out below normal, sounds like maybe SkiWi has been sipping a little WiSki
That’s what I was going to say. Somebody forgot to tell the Charleston NWS and my local tv. I have low 20’s Friday then upper 30’s to low 40’s after that with light rain Sunday.
Well it’s still not amping up….light snow….
Columbia has barely seen an inch of snow this year. The way it’s looking we will be lucky if we see another inch before winter is over.
At my place in Taylor county I recorded six inches of snow total so far this winter season. This includes the November event where we received an inch of snow. I think when we get into late January and February when the days get longer and the westerlies slow down we may receive more snow than we want ?
Just a reminder to all the Negative Nancys on here, sometimes when you least expect it, BAM !! LOL. Sure wish we could just get a dusting, 😉