Good afternoon, everyone. We continue to watch another winter weather maker rolling toward the state for later Wednesday and early Thursday. This kicks off a stretch featuring frequent winter weather makers impacting the weather across the region.
I have no real changes to how I think our system evolves. Rain moves in along and ahead of this front tonight into Wednesday. A major temperature drop takes place just behind the front, leading to a band of mix and snow developing. The best chance of this putting down some snow is across the central and eastern half of the state. Watch how this plays out on the GFS…
Here’s the area with the greatest potential to put some snow on the ground…
This is a situation where a heavier snow band shows up in spurts along the back edge of the precipitation shield. The exact locations of that won’t be known until we nowcast the cold catching up to the precip. You can see what I’m talking about on the models.
GFS
NAM
New version of the GFS
Short range Candian
Another band of light snow moves in with an arctic front Thursday night. Temps behind this are frigid and may hit the upper single digits in a few spots Friday morning with wind chills below zero.
Another system moves in with some snow on Saturday and Sunday, with additional systems waiting into next week…
GFS
New GFS
The pattern is just itching to amplify one of these systems and turn it into a much bigger storm. As I said last night, you may not see that until within a day or two of it happening.
I will have a First Call For Snowfall on WKYT starting at 4 and on KWC later this evening. Make it a good one and take care.
Thanks Chris. Here I am, the eternal optimist, once again prowling the blog for the mention of snow where I live. Well, at least for now, we are in the best chance category. I am sure something will happen to change that since I mentioned it but there you go. The wind is starting to pick up here a little bit. Nothing heavy, just can hear it whistling through garage doors at work. Temp is 40 and partly to mostly cloudy right now. Well, looking forward to seeing the next update and to seeing you on Channel 27. Have a great afternoon all.
At this point, I will take any accumulation down here! I am sure Coffeelady, Troy, Andy and others starved out in far SE KY and South Central KY that WANT SNOW will agree with my statement:)
Hope you guys get snow the down in SE ky. Looks like my neck of woods here in western,ky is out of the ball park on this one.
Been a puzzling winter so far..Good pattern starts showing up then poof it’s gone..Something has thrown a wrench into the mix..SOI index has been all out of wack for a supposedly central base weak El Nino which looks more neutral..MJO staying in bad phases..Who knows what has happened to this winter that was suppose to be Epic according to the experts..Know it can change and hope everyone gets a good snow but put be on the list for more of the same,few inches here and there which amounts to nothing and gone the next day..Just waiting for a SER to enter the picture soon so we can hopefully dry out and put this winter to rest..Ready for outdoor chores..
More like very frustrating than puzzling but both work!
I have that terrible hunch, and I hope I am wrong, that the oscillations will come together in late February through late March or into April and tap just enough cold air to stay well below average but still mostly provide mixed or one good hit that is a flash melt off. Again, I DONT WANT this miserable winter to drag into spring when it hard to get all snow or actually get one that flash melts in 24 hours! If it doesn’t look up by mid-February, I want an early spring but we dont get what we want, obviously. SIGH!
I totally agree you. I don’t like Winter in March and April. I would also venture to say these upcoming systems look to be coming from the northwest. Which means they pull up warmer air in front of them which leads to rain and cold chasing the moisture. Probably a lot of up and down temps too.I don’t see the cold having any staying power.
The current pattern is why I had a rant last week. Basically, I had a no snow meltdown…lol…though not entirely funny:(
I knew the oscillations were trending wrong last week but I need someone like a Judah Cohen level to explain why! I honestly feel like a failure as I saw this winter working out differently and feel responsible for throwing out my thoughts to others. Oh well, maybe some kind of snow works out, as even a crappy patterns can deliver a quick hit.
Does anyone know how which model ended up handling the last system the best? I don’t believe it was either GFS! Just curious on consistency!
what time do the models run ?
– snow starved in Stearns
Nice temp rebound today. Worked in the mud that was once a pretty yard. Lots of work ahead in the spring. Awaiting the rain that will add to the mud dilemma.
Seems that this time next week, the total snow for winter could bust 5″ 😉 Winning!
Lol…earlier, I thought you meant season-to-date in Richmond.
By the way, how much do you have on the season there?
Perhaps 3 inches for the season in Richmond.