Good afternoon, everyone. Rounds of heavy rain producing showers and thunderstorms continue to target the region. This is a setup that will take us through Thursday, bringing the potential for high water issues and even a few severe storms.
As expected, the Flood Watch was expanded to include southern and southeastern Kentucky…
This should actually extend into northern Tennessee because the axis of heaviest rain continues to show up a little farther south. This is something we’ve talked about for the past few days and now you’re seeing it play out in real time.
A general 2″-4″ of rain is likely through Thursday night. Locally higher amounts may show up, especially in the southern half of the state. That would be enough to cause local flooding issues.
In addition to the flood potential, the threat for strong to severe storms is with us, especially across the western half of the state. The Storm Prediction Center has this region in a Slight Risk with the marginal risk into areas of central and south central Kentucky…
Temps tank Thursday night as the front blows in, as the 20s show by Friday morning. An area of light snow will show up for a short time.
After a seasonally cold Friday and Saturday, the active pattern cranks back up with a series of systems rolling across the region through next week. These systems continue to take on more of a winter look to them, with the usual model flips and flops…
Canadian
GFS 
New version of the GFS
I leave you with your tracking tools for the day…
Current watches
Possible watch areas
Make it a good one and take care.
Looks like the new FV3-GFS (fantasy version 3-GFS) needed tons of work before its official debut…
We have had 2.11 inches of rain so far and it is raining hard right now. Near Ray, Ohio. Our front yard has a lake in it.
So far 1.76 inches here in central Kentucky. No concerns of flooding here. I’m more concerned of the severe weather threat.
Does anybody on the blog actually believe Old Man Winter has anything left in the tank? I just don’t see it, the locals in the tri-state have 50 degree high temps as far out as their forecast goes.
Old Man Winter, just when you think he’s dead and gone he comes back to life in February, March and April.
https://wchstv.com/weather
Also, the NWS out of Charleston does not share your claim.
Even Morristown TN still has 40’s in the forecast for most of the weekend.
What tri-state locals are you referencing showing only 50’s?
The last time I checked, WOWK TV had 50 for Sunday, 48 for Monday and 50 again for Tuesday. Plus every internet weather site I checked had my area in the upper 40’s to mid 50’s all the way thru the following weekend. Regardless of whether it is 43 or 53 it’s not going to snow at either of those temperatures.
Tank is so full of water, no room for winter snow
Thanks Chris. We’ve had some heavy rain here at the house this morning but right now it is not raining. Good thing i waterpoofed my new boots! They got wet but my feet are dry! Stay dry and safe everyone. Hey, it’s Hump Day!!!! It’s all downhill from here. 😉
Man. The new GFS is such an eye sore from a realistic perspective. Why post it until the kinks are ironed out?
You right I just read an article that even NOAA said it is less accurate than the old GFS. Chris needs to stop showing It because all it is a tease.
NOAA really ??? There forecast reads like this ” Equal Chances “
We here in Southern Ohio have had over 2 inches of rain since this morning. There are flood warnings out and schools are already let out. Still raining and more to come tonight and tomorrow. Stay dry.
Thanks Chris, Judging by the new GFS weather model suggest that Kentucky will turn cold and snowy by the end of the month and hopefully will be lasting till the end of March. I don’t put much stock in any weather models I’m just trying to be positive for all those snow lovers. #teamheavysnowforalloftheohiovalley
HRRR is hitting Southeastern Kentucky with some very heavy rain tonight, everyone that lives in the area should be taking precautions now:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2019020618/hrrr_apcpn_us_19.png
You know I was wondering if all these snow maps for accumulation For the entire winter for Kentucky weren’t really rainfall accumulation for the winter instead of snow I know we have had way more inches of rain than snow this winter they must have been looking at the wrong analog years lol
I was thinking the same thing. This Winter was DOA.
over….
So far in have received only 0.3 inches of rain. Thankfully
That’s about to change in a hurry! Looks like a thumper of heavy rain moving in! 0.51 here so far!
Rounds of heavy rain/thunder are making their presence known this afternoon in Nashville, was hard to see across the street at times. Flood Warnings are out in western Kentucky, more flood advisories and warnings seem a good bet for Kentucky and Tennessee. Please be careful!
The Storm Prediction Center did put out a “Mesoscale Discussion” about an hour ago for much of central and western Tennessee saying there was only a 20% chance of a severe weather watch being issued this afternoon. But the SPC did raise tomorrow’s severe threat from Marginal to Slight for southern Illinois and southeastern Missouri so activity at NWS Paducah at least. Looks like thunderstorm winds reaching severe levels will be the main threat, but can’t rule out an isolated tornado or two.
Grrr, meant to say the mentioned “Slight” severe weather will probably mean good activity at NWS Paducah tomorrow. But all area NWS offices (and tv meteorologists 🙂 ) will be busy with the potential flooding and the limited severe weather threat.
We’ve seen the models show snow days out all winter. We’ve seen what’s happened – mainly disappointment for snow lovers. If no snow, let’s get to dry, spring weather and keep it. Rodger in Dodger
lets just move on into spring mode and hope next winter will be better. Im loving the above normal temps & looking forward to what I hope is an early spring with beautiful sunshine but a little less soggy. we’ve had enough rain for a while. #teamspring