Good afternoon, everyone. Confidence continues to increase that a developing winter storm will impact the state later this weekend. Because this storm has the potential to bring some 4″+ snows with it, it’s time to go with a Winter Storm THREAT from Saturday night through Sunday night.
This is a quick update, but my main area of focus for the THREAT hasn’t changed…
The European Model and Canadian Mode match up well with this
The above map is from the new version of the GFS and is likely overdone. The GFS may be a little underdone…
I’m out at an event so this is as much as I can do via my phone.
I’m will have a First Call Map out later this evening. Until then, let’s track some showers across parts of southeastern Kentucky…
Make it a good one and take care.
Probably my last post until next week some time as I am too disgusted to watch the Twitter feed blow up with the same people getting snow.
At any rate, I cheer for Jimbo and hope he gets a ground cover!
Kentucky is kicking off its Severe Weather Awareness Week today which runs though March 7. Among other activities, a tornado drill is scheduled for Wed March 6….. weather permitting.
https://www.weather.gov/jkl/severeawareness
The above link is to NWS Jackson KY, which is also commemorating the March 2 2012 tornadoes.
Tennessee will wrap up its Severe Weather and Flood Awareness Week tomorrow.
https://www.weather.gov/ohx/swaw2019
Even if many of us outside today may be shivering in the winterlike cold. 😉
Roughly five years ago, someone on this blog recommended that we always copy our posts before posting. This is in case the automod blocks your post. Then you can paste your old message and make corrections, then repost.
Wish I remember who made this recommendation so I could give him/her credit. But thanks any!
Advise from earlier today about changing “bad” words that make the automod block posts…..
https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=35391#comment-332448
Haha it was me! Its been a loooooong time since I’ve posted but I still do occasionally read the blog once in a while. This is the first time I read the comments in 3 month and happen to see this! Glad to see you’re still active here TennMark
I was thinking about you the other day, where in the he!! have you been my man.
Pleasant surprise to hear from you, Israel!
I also don’t post nearly as often as when I first arrived on this blog in late 2011 or so. Besides later becoming a married man, there’s also my time being taken up by w-o-r-k (a “bad” four letter word that the automod may detect and thus delete the entire post, thus the use of “-“) 😉 .
Hope you are still reaching for your dreams in meteorology. Part of me wishes I could go back in time to learn a weather career.
PS. In my original post, I meant to say “But thanks anyway” but my proofreading failed me.
I give up posting any informative weather information on CHRIS BAILEY’S BLOG. To tell all, I’m sorry I found this site. The negativity is just too much and I’m not respected.
I hope you don’t give up. I look forward to your posts as much as anyone’s. I think most of the negativity is from rain exhaustion and snow starvation. If you give up your detractors win. And by the way none of the locals in the tri-state have snow in their forecasts for Sunday except a few flurries at the end.
Here we go again…. smh
It was a MISTAKE within how the blog posts, Shro. Nothing against YOU, whatsoever. I’ve made posts(I don’t make them often in recent years, either, because…well, nevermind. I’ll get to them eventually…lol!) that don’t get posted as well.(It’s how the blog is “tuned”…)
The negativity is natural. I can understand fully how some here on the blog, esp. the ones in SE KY feel, even though I don’t live there myself. I am in Nelson Co. Bardstown. I live right here overlooking the BG Pkwy. When you go by nearing Bardstown, you can drive by and I’ll wave at ya’ from my deck! 🙂 LOL!), and I totally understand how those folks that want snow don’t GET it! For instance, back in Dec. ’04, I see all these posts’ from people who got like a foot of SNOW..?! Did I get a foot of snow…or even 4”??? Nope! I was “on the line”…Bardstown proper got an ice storm with perhaps a bit of snow on top, but if you drove about 12 miles to my N/NW, you had the big snow. And like last year this time….? No snow (I don’t count those little 1-2” “ankle-biter’s”!) to speak of until one morning, Louisville was getting a good amount, I was again kind of mad….until the little “banding” set up, and we ended up with around 6-8″….then not long after that, we got another band of around 9″!!! Didn’t last long, of course, but, hey, it was THERE!!!! 🙂
As far as being “respected”. This blog is just like anything else on the ‘Net. It’s nothing like it was in it’s inception. A few of the OG’s, but not like it was. You get on the ride, you fall off, you get back on……if they don’t like it, too bad. We’re all here to relay our ideas and opinions, and there will always be someone that doesn’t agree and there will always be someone that thinks they know more than the next, but that’s how it is. Just be YOU, and don’t let the others kick your butt, because at the end of the day, nobody is better than the next. (I learned that when I was 4….my Mama told me, and I’ve held on to it, so I know it’s true..for the past 52 yrs….)(But I won’t tell ya what she told me to do if somebody questioned that…lol!)
Debbie you posted a good valid point. thank you!!
Very true
Thanks, Winterlover and Jimbo. Just putting the truth out there! I can remember being here back in ’08-’09….wow. HUGE difference from then and now. Even Rolo doesn’t show up much….I miss him!!! I miss a lot of the others that used to be here, too. Those were good times.
Thanks Debbie your very kind. I feel better now.
I want a big snow that sticks around for a few days, as much or more than anyone. But we have a few things working against us with this one.
1.) The timing, late morning to early afternoon will have the sun at its highest peak and still keep the air warmer, even with cloudy sky`s.
2.) The ground temperatures will be warm and even with a hard snow, we will lose an inch or two before it starts sticking.
3.) The temperatures will be marginal, around the lower 30`s, so that will take away some of the snow on the ground.
4.) I`ve heard this is a fast moving storm, so we have a small window to get snow, we wont have time to make up for any lost accumulation.
I hope all this is wrong, because I want a big snow before Spring, so we`ll see.
I look the looks of that 9.3 over my house – not so much the 1.1. Could end up as a 0.0. But, hey, “It’s all the weather we got.” (Didn’t someone once say that?)
Teleconnections not supporting significant snow. WPC says moderate chance for 4″+ for much of central Ky northward to southern Indiana. It will be interesting to see how this one unfolds. I’m not too optimistic either.
Makes me want to ask – have we ever had snowstorms in the past where teleconnections did not support it?
Probably but not lately
And at what point do all those lines shift north.
The 18Z model runs as well as the ones following.
Still seems more I64 on north event, but we shall see.
Other regional mets Rodger follows are downplaying this event. Temps looking warm even north of the river and not as much precip in latest models Ugh! If it’s not gonna snow, bring on spring! Rodger in Dodger
I’m going with a general 1-2″ for the I-64 corridor and maybe a tad more in extreme NKY. Anything else is just a bonus as the timing of the event plus warm ground temps, as other posters have said above, may limit accumulation. It’s going to have to snow very hard and steady for the snow to lay down and stick. Tons of big flakes aren’t going to do it either. Going to have to be the gazillion tiny ones all at once that ice things up.