Good Tuesday everyone and welcome to more of the same. Our weather pattern continues to look more like what we would see in January or February instead of late March or early April. As of now… there is little sign of things changing over the next few weeks.
Not that this is breaking news anymore… but another fast moving system will bring some more light snow to parts of the area later tonight into early Wednesday. This has been a fascinating pattern over the past week as this is the third such system to bring some of the white stuff back into our world.The sad part is… this likely won’t be our last brush with winter as the end of the week may feature another round.
Today will see clouds increasing from west to east with temps back into the 40s again. A weak low pressure will be skirting by to our south and this will throw some moisture northward into the region. Showers will be on the move into the evening with a mix of light snow and light rain across the northern sections into early Wednesday. There is likely to be another narrow ribbon of some very light accumulations…
The good news is the rain and snow will move out pretty quickly Wednesday as some afternoon sunshine returns slowly from west to east. Highs will recover back into the 40s to near 50 in some areas.
Thursday will find us in between systems with a mix of sun and clouds and temps struggling to get out of the upper 40s again.
Our next item up for bids will move in late Thursday night into Friday and is likely to bring another shot of rain and some snow to our region. This storm will likely crank up as it works up the east coast and will carve out a nice little trough across the region to start the weekend. Watch the northwestern skies for an April version of a clipper trying to dive in Friday night or early Saturday.
A big storm is likely to get going across the plains states by later Sunday and Monday and this should give us a couple of days of temps getting closer to normal. This won’t last as a strong cold front will slap us back to reality by Tuesday and Wednesday. Our front may also be a strong storm maker as it blows through and that is something to watch for. Behind the boundary… another period of well below normal temps. 
This map from the GFS Ensembles showing the temp departure sums it up pretty well…
That is just UGLY! While we will see a day or two over the next few weeks that will be “normal”… the overall trend is for a colder than normal pattern.
Looking farther down the road for the middle and end of April… this pattern is one that has the look of some major severe weather outbreaks across the country.
I will update things as needed… have a great Tuesday and take care.
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There is no bad weather as long ast the Cats keep winning! Thanks Chris!
Based on data I’ve been looking at, I’m still expecting more normal to above normal readings than below normal from April 6-13. I’m sure your map for the 12th will change (for the better).
Thanks Chris. Looks like winter is not giving up without a fight! Guess you could ca that “March Madness” as well…
I hope you’re right, but I would say Chris is on the right track. We MIGHT get back to normal by the 7th or 8th, but a lot of days in the 40s looks to be more probable. And that’s just ugly for this time of year.
I agree 100%! 🙂
NWS still has temps around 70 sun&mon, that is above norm last time I checked.
1 thing to remember about all nws forecast is that they are all computer generated and are based on the gfs which has a history of under estimating the cold air. look fro the nws forecast to gradually start mentioning snow in their forecast for this weekend by wed. afternoon. they were predicting low 60s for saturday and now it is down to the low 50s and it will go lower the closer that the time gets here.
question….how can mets forecast a major severe wx outbreak 2-3 weeks away? is that soleyly based on some blue on the gfs?
I haven’t seen anybody predict a certain outbreak 2-3 weeks out. I think what Chris and some others are thinking (including myself) is that we are coming out of a La Nina Winter which typically pushes the storm track north toward the TN and OH Valley area, and the threat for severe weather and tornadoes is higher in our area with patterns like this. It’s just a matter of time before all these frequent rain/snow makers we are seeing become severe weather makers instead as heat builds in the Gulf.
Is the snow Rolo talked about yesterday for southeast KY? I wonder if we will see any more accumulation this year?
12z GFS showing potential for a major severe outbreak monday.
models forecast severe parameters for the entire model run, in the case of the GFS 2 weeks. Although generally only a synoptic ( large-scale) pattern is known 5-8 days out. A program called BUFKIT can allow for interpretation of the modeled data in souding and hodograph form. Here are links to more info on soundings and hodographs. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hodograph
http://en.mimi.hu/meteorology/sounding.html
Storm spotter class in Louisville on April 8 (tentative) at McMahan Fire Dept on Taylorsville Rd. I’m planning on being there, since it’s been a while (2004).
As Mitch mentioned above, if we do get that severe weather outbreak, guess what infamous day that would be?
We’ll just have to see how things develop…
Ominous to say the least 🙂
Wasn’t April 3, 1974 the infamous tornado outbreak? Next Monday will be April 4.
Yes. The primary action occurred on April 3 here, but the tornado outbreak did not subside until April 4. Often, the event is called the ‘super tornado outbreak of April 3-4, 1974’.
Can I get a holler for Global Warmming?? Any??? I hear crickets!!!
Late March & April snow, yea it seems we are rapidly approaching heat over load on planet earth LOL 🙂 Temps in Alaska are still below 0!
huh huh you said bufkit !!
we go thru this same weather pattern every year, redbud winter, dogwood winter, blackberry winter, etc etc …. everybody wants to play meteorologist and predict a big snow storm … lame!!!
i could not have said it better my self, only thing about that though is after a winter like we just experienced the majority of the people r sick of this weather and they really want true spring, me included. it is not fun trying to mow lawns in a winter coat and so far i have mowed 3 lawns with my coat on. seems when the grass starts growing that it just keeps growing, cold or not, especially this time of the year.
While I don’t particularly agree with the theories of global warming, to say that our longer, harsher feeling winters suggest it’s not happening is actually the opposite of what the theories suggest. Global warming is not about the weather getting hotter all the time, it’s about major climate shifts — longer winters in certain areas = exactly the point.
Man, its hotter outside now than it was 200 years ago. What are you talking about 😉 lol just kidding
NWS site does not match up with Chris on the cold weather for weeks map?? http://www.weather.gov/predictions.php
What do cold days in March have to with downing anything regarding that?
Hi, I appreciate the information that you have provided in the post. It is worth noting and I really liked the presentation as well. I will surely come back for more of interesting posts.
There have been several occasions where the national Mets have lagged behind on weather patterns because they forecast from models and figures. Chris is a native of this area and can throw in some field knowledge of actual weather patterns and events that have taken place. Its when he mixes the figures with his knowledge that the forecasts come out the best. I for one really value the insight he brings to the weather world around here 🙂
I’ve wanted to publicate something looking like this on my blog and this gave me a good idea. Cheers!
С каких источников у вас такая инфа?