Good Tuesday everyone. Monday featured severe weather across parts of the region and now it’s time for the heavy rain to take over. This has the making of a classic November soaker into Wednesday.
We have a stalled out front across the Tennessee Valley with waves of low pressure moving along it. Rounds of heavy rain will continue to work across the same areas through Wednesday. Additional rainfall of 1″-3″ will be common around here and this could lead to local high water issues. I will have your tracking toys here in a bit.
Much colder air is going to stream in from northwest to southeast later Wednesday. Some of the models have been trying to get another wave of low pressure to form just to our southeast Wednesday night and early Thursday. The GFS is suggesting the possibility of some wet snows flying during this time…
That will be a nice shot of cold air moving in for a couple of days before our temps head back into the 50s for the weekend.
That’s when we await the next storm system to impact the region. Rain should arrive before the weekend is through and this takes us into another VERY wet period early Thanksgiving week. That may drop more heavy rain before a turn to colder.
Let’s get back to where we are now and your heavy rain tracking tools…
Rainfall Since Midnight
I will have updates as needed. Have a great Tuesday and take care.
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First!? That just means I am up too late…
the rain will be good for the forest fire that are out. they been fighting them for several days here in clay county. the bad is i never got a chance to fix my leak in the roof yet.
everyone stay safe during the rain event next few days.
thanks chris for all that you do.
2011-12 winter outlook from neoweather.com (video version)
http://www.neoweather.com/2011-2012winterforecast.html
It’s becoming increasingly harder to believe December will play out like most sources are saying…including neoweather.com. Seems to me like temps are going to be average for Tennessee and southern Kentucky next month…with a couple notable oscillations b/t cold and mild spells…maybe slightly below average overall temp-wise for northern Kentucky. Who knows truly 3-4 weeks out though. If 2008-09 is considered as an analog year, December 2008 was pretty average in temps, above average in precip. I sure hope whenever we are in a cold spell, the conditions are set in place for something big to happen…
here’s what our buddy over at wymt Jim Caldwell had to say:
A frontal system is working across KY and it will bring some showers and storms. Once these clear out of the area it looks like some much cooler air will also follow it into our region. Once again… it won’t last long! This month has been up and down so far and that pattern continues for a little while longer.
By the end of the week I believe we will all be thinking.. “Man this feels like winter” but trust me… not just yet! However, I thought what better time to put out a winter forecast than this week. So on Wednesday evening… it will be posted right here. I will have it on the air on Thursday at 6pm. Here’s a preview… SNOW!
Ole Jimmy boy is speakin my language!!!!
S……..N…….O…….W !!!!!!!
look like line starting to move faster, it sure hadnt moved much since 6am this morn, so i dont see no flooding for SE and E KY.
so thats good, and its good as we had sum fires reak out in clay co last couple days as my GOOD FRIEND Chris G reported early dis morn.
as far as winter, i stick to my first measurble snow 10 days starting TGIVING 24th on. look for a 4 plaus in snow in parts of KY in that window.
UK 94 KU-71
What happened to early winter this site has been touting since late august? There is no hint of any arctic air in the eastern us for at least 3 weeks or longer. The whole winter is in jeopardy of busting if nothing happens but seasonal or above7 seasonal temps through Christmas. I have a bad feeling about this. I told you back in august when mets pull out their analog year thing or flat out make a daring but not too smart call in Sept that it’s the death penalty for winter. No disrespect to the weather dood but dood you really missed November bad, nothing even close for the next 14-21 days out. Anyone ask for a &**%$#% blow torch for Xmas?
Case in point: November 2010 average montly temperature: 46.7 degrees. December 2010 average monthly temperature: 26.3 degrees. (WoW). That’s a 20 degree drop in AVERAGE temperature simply in a matter of weeks. The rule around the Ohio Valley… “never say never”.
James u keep watching the GLOBAL WARMING CHANNEL, and by end of the month as the DOOD akas CHRIS THE LEGEND BAILEY predicted there be winter WEATHER on the horizon. watch by this time next week there be WINTER WEATHER acoming on them there models.
WINTER weather cant be predicted by long range models ANYMORE, now that said my snoew prediction 10 day period start on TGIVING might go up a HOGS rear END but dont come running that mouth about WEATHER DOODS when ur calling out BAILEY he hasnt promised u nothing and last time i check he hasnt gave a WINTER OUTLOOK either. only saying towards end of november could be interesting.
I SEE A BANN MOOD RISING,, I SEEE IP ADREESS AMISS,YEAAAAAAAAA
DONT RUNNOFF AT THE MOUTH cause u likely will dismount, yeaaaa BANN MOOD on the risin!!!
on side not the judges hate HOPE and MAX on DWTSTARS!! X FACTOR TOMM NITE!! love racheal,leroy, STRO, and the one going win MELANIE!!!
rolo is my hero
Somebody get this guy a medal
I am rather enjoying this fall. the cold so far seems to moderate well by the time it is here, honestly mid and upper 50s with sun beats cold and dry or 35 and drizzle any day. so unless its going to snow i am happy with this mild pattern.
Hey Cameron.. Yes it looks like there is the threat to delay the December forecast by a few days or so but I would in no means call it off. Polar vortex is in siberia, but forecasted to move into Alaska and trending towards Canada. NAO may potentially be negative by even December 1st, we will get a better look in the next week. PNA looks to trend positive around Turkey Day before it models return it back negative. But if we get that -NAO to start up December 1st, or the week of then this forecast is still defintitely still on. I know it may be harder to believe.. but last year we were able to turn winter on like a light switch for December. December 2008 was considered an analog year for my forecast, but 1950 and 1974 offset that with very cold Eastern US per analogs. My forecast for December is still on track, just models throwing a wrench in. Its what makes winter forecasting so much fun, (or a pain) 😀
Thanks! Chief Forecaster Jimmy Cornell from http://www.Neoweather.com
Take another Xanax rolo.
Rolo keeping it real on the Blog! Much love to ya brother!
I think the legend needs to dust off the old B& hammer for this James character… no early winter you say? Snowshoe, WV picked up 9″s of snow the first weekend of October. That’s an early start to winter even by WV standards. I’ll do you one better, remember the #Snowtober snowstorm that crippled the northeast and left MILLIONS without power. Don’t come running your mouth about no early winter, just because we haven’t seen much action yet in Kentucky.
I’ll say this, I’m still working on my seasonal forecasting skills, and any given winter can be hard enough, but this winter is going to be a tough one for any forecaster to nail. There are a lot of major players on the board, and I’m not sure how well analog years are going to help in a set up like we’re in right now. My guess right now would be towards an average winter temperature wise, with more precipitation than average, and the potential for some humdinger ice storms and snow storms. Once again just my opinion, take it for what it is.
Mel, you reek of abounding blind shell-shocked grouoie. There are no,none…zotta TC indicators that would suggest any winter WX here through Dec 1 and quite likely beyond.
As far as other events well we don’t live in Snow Shoe or have any mountain ranges close to its height. Might as well throw Austria in there. That is for the Einstein that justified the winter fluke and nor east’er that hit a few weeks ago.,,a load of poppycock. This site has touted and teased about OUR potential for early winter since late August not about Winter in Bum Bang, Nova Scotia. Look I am not attacking the Dood just want to make a point. When mets, weather services, energy services, the cpc,did,FBI or Jim Neighbors start calling for a harsh winter in late Aug or early Sept you better without its a curse more times than not and slightly irresponsible. So wake up and spit out the kool aid. And don’t please don’t spout global warming as a variable on this issue, it makes one appear as a super novice.
Thank you, Jimmy! I appreciate your insight!