Good evening, everyone. A weak system is working across the area right now, but things are looking much better over the next few days. Beyond that, it’s a quick shower maker for Friday then the pattern threatens to go into the winter tank starting next week.
Before we get to weather, this happened today…
Had a great meeting today with folks from @NWSLouisville @nwsjacksonky and other tv mets here in Lexington. Main topic of convo was finding a solution to the erroneous airport temp. This photo of all of us together proves hell has moved into a full blown ice age. 😁#kywx pic.twitter.com/MVnf6YMBtS
— Chris Bailey (@Kentuckyweather) December 3, 2019
Everyone finally agrees the Blue Grass Airport thermometer is terribly wrong. As you know, this is something I’ve been drawing attention to for years. The folks at the NWS want to do the right thing and I’m confident this will finally get fixed soon. To those folks who’ve given me grief over the years for my constant bashing of the official Lexington temps and snowfall measurements, everyone today agrees it’s been poor and has to get better. I expect a personal apology from each of you. 😉
As far as the weather is concerned, we have a weak system trying to bring a flake or two to the north this evening…
Wednesday and Thursday continue to look good, so enjoy it.
A fast moving shower maker rolls through here on Friday with chilly temps…
A cold shot of air comes in for Friday night into Saturday.
Early next week will feature a major arctic attack showing up across the country. The details on how it all evolves and what impacts it has on our weather remain to be seen. The first arctic front looks to arrive by Tuesday. Ahead of this comes a lot of rain and wind for Monday, with the potential for a switch to snow as temps crash Tuesday…
That’s some really cold air coming in here for the middle of next week and that could mean wind chills get way down there.
The arctic air will likely hang tough across the northern half of the country, with the potential for winter weather makers riding underneath it later next week…
It’s not just the operational models that are going frigid, the ensembles are too. Keep in mind, the GFS ensemble mean shows the average of 21 members and usually smoothes out in time. Look at what it’s showing for temp departures from early next week into early the following week…
That would also be conducive for some snows. That’s something the average of the nearly 50 member Euro Ensembles are seeing…
Enjoy the evening and take care.
You shoulda spilled water on that loser Meck.
Specifically for Bus Hanes regarding models after reading his reply to Mr. Peabody: I like computer modeling but the biggest issue in my location is the problem with topography. Constantly, it shows 5 to 10 degrees colder and generally much more snow due how the models can’t differentiate elevation in SE KY. Elevation ranges from under 1500ft (where I and most people live) to up to 4,000ft where some, but much less of the population lives. Unfortunately where most people live in the valleys, models confuse the general public just like this past event concerning snowfall accumulation: average on all 4 major models ran the day of still showed around 2 to 3 inches widespread from Bell Co. to Pike Co. and areas inbetween but over 90% of us had about a dusting to 0 accumulation as these valleys are all under 1500ft in elevation. Constantly, forecasts will show Harlan as snowy and as cold as your area as far north as Ohio but generally we are MUCH WARMER down here than even areas in Central KY. Even the Mesonets will shown the annual average temps on the SE KY county mesonets are much warmer than many areas of KY, often comparable to far west KY counties minus the Harlan and Pike mesonets that are high up in elevation.
Models are best at what Mr. Peabody means by studying the bigher picture of the pattern in general. The fun of weather is tracking both far out, midrange and the event itself, IMO!
Terry where I live are forecasts come from Charleston West Virginia. They always give a forecast for the lowlands and what is going to happen in the mountains. The mountains always get more snow than the lowlands. The mountain squeeze out more moisture as the air rises up them. As far as the long range computer models go they are fun to look at out that far but people get let down in believing that’s what is going to happen in a week or two only to be let down. I also believe that meteorologists use them to get people excited about snow just so they will make comments.
It was kind of this way growing up in Brevard, NC. Brevard is kind of in a valley, but still 2500 (ish) elevation I think. Often, the parkway would get snows but we wouldn’t. It would be a total blizzard up there. But we would often get big snows in Brevard……….Hmm, often as in 2 big snows per year with some years NO snow at all. I think we went 1989, 1990, 1991, and 1992 with NO snow at all. Zero……then the blizzard of ’93, but then after that, nothing for a couple of years.
I totally agree about airport observations. These place are concrete jungles. They are heat magnets, both winter and summer. Somehow we need to find a happy medium between the city and rural areas, so we get a truer indication of what the weather is for a given area. No solution is perfect, but it would be a good start.