Good evening, folks. Here’s hoping you’re making the best of what has been a very dreary weather day across our region. As we move ahead, our focus is on the winter weather and flood threat coming from late Sunday through Tuesday morning.
My thoughts continue to be the same with winter weather and flooding possible across Kentucky. Where you live will be the determining factor on which of those you could see.
Let’s start with the late Sunday-early Monday winter weather potential. My thoughts since Friday remain unchanged…
Areas across northern Kentucky are likely to pick up accumulating during this time, especially in the Covington area. Accumulations will tail off fairly quickly the farther south you get down toward Interstate 64.
Rain takes over as the main precip on Monday and is likely to be heavy at times. This could be enough to cause flooding issues across parts of central and eastern Kentucky.
As colder air comes back in Monday night and early Tuesday, another band of snow may show up in northern Kentucky and slowly slip to the south and southeast. Right now, that looks light.
The models continue to trend farther southeast with the low. We have some pretty good agreement among the various models.
GFS Ensembles
GFS Ensembles snow map
GFS
GFS snow map
NAM
NAM snow map
NAM freezing rain map
The Canadian snow map continues to be more generous…
Euro snow map
All those snow maps are through Tuesday and not just for the Sunday night portion of the storm.
For the rain numbers, the GFS and NAM are showing numbers that can cause flooding issues to develop…
GFS
NAM 
This is a nice Ohio Valley winter storm and will bring a lot of different weather our way through Tuesday. I will have another update, including a First Call For Snowfall, later tonight.
Enjoy the evening and take care.
Glad that all rain is likely for my Monday commute. #winning
I luv rain glad that’s all i will be getting from this event
I hate my weather
CB map guesstimate for snow as part of the mix in general:
Dark blue = 75%
Blue = 20%
Light blue = 5%
Warm air is pretty stubborn this year (and the previous two). Still not seeing anything as an outlook that suggests KY is in the sweet spot for cold air and precipitation getting together for significant action. They both seem to be like oil and water instead.
I’ve said that too, The current pattern is just not there for a big snowstorm, Sadly i don’t see this pattern changing anytime soon!
Hi Chris. Thanks for all the info! Any hints for Christmas?
Was good to FINALLY meet you and Amber and Sam today at Fayette Mall ringing the Salvation Army Bells. I rarely post here but I read your blog just about every day. Thanks for all you do weather and the Salvation Army! Watching for the Sunday night snow you’re working on:)
Is there any reason to take the NAM seriously with this system? In two days time it has changed so dramatically. The 00Z run has shifted any heavy rain threat into TN, and shows a possible second low bringing light accumulations of snow into a good part of KY Tuesday. The Canadian is more consistent, at least. Of course the models are receiving better upper-air sampling now, so maybe the NAM’s on to something?
Predicting snow to rain or wintry mix in the tri-state is just another way of saying cold rain. If it does start as snow or mix it goes to rain in a matter of minutes. Either way these two scenarios are non-events for me.
Yep…I didn’t even wish you all good luck up that way for this event as I hate worse than anything to start as snow and lose it all to rain! Even if your region, and especially northern KY receives a quick hit, it will be lost to cold rain, heartbreak city! Our best chance on this system is back side flurries or snow showers, if lucky. I hope you get a little but not if you all will just turn to all rain:(
Nothing to look forward to in upcoming week either. I see 50 degree temps back by the end of the week.