Good middle of the day, everyone. I actually had a little time to slap together a quick update on the setup from Sunday through early Tuesday. A developing Ohio Valley winter storm continues to look on target and will bring Kentucky winter weather and the potential for high water issues.
Before we get to all that, let’s focus on what’s going on out there today. Heavy rain is moving out of eastern Kentucky, but another weak system is diving into the west. That has a touch of rain and snowflake action with it, but it decreases as it rolls east. Here’s regional radar…
As far as the winter weather is concerned for late Sunday into early Monday, my target area has not changed…
The northern half of the state continues to have the best threat for snow and a mix. I do expect accumulations to take place, especially in the far north.
The GFS continues to track the low farther south and east…
Here’s the snow map from the GFS…
The axis of heaviest rain fairly broad, but farther south from earlier runs…
The NAM was way north with earlier runs, but it’s farther south now…
Here’s the snow map from the NAM
It is also showing a swath of heavy rain…
The short range Canadian only goes through Sunday night, but it’s the farthest south with the initial snowfall…
Moral of the weather story, the farther north you live, the better the chance at picking up on a snowfall Sunday evening into Monday morning. Much of central and eastern Kentucky could be looking at flooding issues developing Monday before colder air comes back in and switches the rain over to some snow late Monday night.
I will see you guys with another update this evening. Have a good one and take care.
Thats a lot of water!
I can always count on the heavy rain. You take a rain forecast to the bank. Sigh.
On this date in 1997, western Alabama and central Mississippi received between 4-8″ snow accumulation, and “it’s not even winter yet” as some people here try to defend winter’s seeming absence in their part of the world. But winter’s beginning on the solstice is more of an astronomical thing, not a weather thing. But as I write this, meteorological actually sounds just as astronomical since we have the word meteor in the word.
Interestingly, in the National Weather Service glossary, hydrometeor is defined as “a particle of condensed water (liquid, ice, snow, graupel, hail) in the atmosphere”. So, be on the lookout for some of these hydrometeors over the next few days.
Dallas got snow on Thanksgiving in 1993. Big deal. Weird stuff happens every so often, especially in the colder months.
I bet those runs above don’t work out for SE KY getting so little rainfall. I think we end up in the bullseye of the heavy rain, LOL. If I do get 2 or 3 inches of rain out of this, I would then be in a running for a double digit rainfall month as I already have 4 inches in the bucket through the 14th!