Good afternoon, everyone. It’s a rather boring pattern ahead as things turn much milder across much of the country, just in time for Christmas. There is a southern storm system for us to keep a close eye on, and I’m also watching the end of next week for some changes to show up.
Let’s talk about the only thing we have to track between now and Christmas and that’s our southern storm system. This is a big storm for the south, but it may get close enough to throw a little rain into southern and eastern Kentucky by Sunday. The NAM continues to show this…
The Canadian Model is similar…
The GFS is one model showing this not even getting close to Kentucky…
That doesn’t even bring rain into Tennessee. NOAA should put this poor model out of its misery and pull the plug. 🙂
It’s interesting to note how the Canadian is knocking the temps down very quickly right after Christmas…
That’s a trend to watch in the coming days.
Make it a great day and take care.
Couldn’t agree more on pulling the plug on the GFS…..it is complete and utter garbage.
Unfortunately, upgrades and proposed replacements for the GFS have not lived up to expectations. Just looked up the FIM; I didn’t realize the FIM is no longer being considered as a GFS replacement.
I had to look it up. I honestly didn’t know anything about that proposed model. Looks like they scratched the proposal in 2016 and went with FV3.
All weather models have to come into absolute agreement especially when predicting snowstorms for the Ohio Valley. Right to the minute and then the GFS changes and throws the whole thing out. Can’t win for losing.
This is not your typical overrunning moisture event. Other factors will be battling the northward extent of the precipitation shield. It stands to reason the farther north it reaches, the drier NE wind will erode and therefore weaken any significant precipitation. This is not a big deal storm system for Kentucky, including SE Kentucky. No need to make it sound like it will be, as if the northernmost shield of rain will overachieve, cause shut-down traffic, and overflow river banks. Sheesh.
Your right Mike S that low pressure northern edge will encounter dry air aloft. Around Lake Cumberland is where the edge of the precipitation cuts off anyway. The latest forecast is for the low to ride the northern edge of the southeast ridge an out to the Atlantic Ocean it goes.
Chris never hyped this up…..
Let’s just say he is a little too fixated on such a non event
I disagree. You read too much into stuff.
I agree. Don’t know how saying “to throw a little rain into southern and eastern Kentucky” is hyping things up. Looks like the much heavier rains and gusts possibly up to 50mph will stay to the southeast.
True that we probably want get too much rain, but it would better if we could stay dry like the rest of the state as this storm COULD keep us wet before we get more later next week. Already above average down here on the month, but not super saturated yet like it was back in February!
Afraid the trend to watch, is the same winter trend we have had last couple of years, afraid it’s not changing…… rain
Another winter without a big snow! Would love to see 12 inches!
Winter hasn’t even began yet! We usually don’t see our biggest snows(not counting the last couple of years, of course)until mid-Jan. at best. Gotta keep the hope alive! 🙂
This is why I love seeing Debbie post, my snow friend:)
In all reality, the state as whole only averages 1 to 3 inches of snow in December, except for the high elevations in east KY. Living in the valley, I am right at average for the new snow season with a total of 3 and 1/2 inches-to-date, 1 inch in November and 2 and 1/2 inches-to-date for December. Harlan supposedly averages 15 inches annually, mostly in Jan and Feb with about an inch to two inches in March and a trace in April….we got time to at least reach average as, in KY, it only takes one good storm to have an average or even above average season.
As far as rain, I am above average on the month (already) and more to come down here as I agree with Chris, can the GFS!
Double that amount of snow and have it fall on Christmas Eve. Very wishful thinking in our part of the country.
Only if a weak El nino develops to activate the positive Subtropical Jet and phase with a very negative Polar Jet over the southern Rockies. Folks it’s all about magnetic’s when it comes to making a Winter snowstorm. NOAA is giving a 30% chance of a weak El nino at the end of December.