Good evening, everyone. Our Christmas Eve Eve is a mild and dry one across Kentucky and this setup carries us through the big day. As we head into the final weekend of the year, we have a major pattern change ready to take place.
I’m not going to touch on the mild weather because y’all know all about that.
The NAM is still trying to throw in a few sprinkles in here for Christmas Day…
The change comes this weekend into the closing days of the year, but the details of it still have to be ironed out.
The GFS is actually the only consistent model in what it’s showing, but that doesn’t make it right. I gives us thunderstorms, gusty winds, a major temp drop and some wraparound snows by Sunday night and Monday…
Here’s the temp crash associated with that system…
And the wind chills…
Additional cold blasts are likely into the first week of the new year and the Ensembles have been showing that for a while now. The GFS Ensembles average snowfall (for fun), shows the snow chances through this period…
Have a great Christmas Eve Eve and take care.
Made it to 65 today for a high
Looks warmer tomorrow, dependent upon less cloud cover. Blowtorch city! At least we got to stay dry, running for a rare 7 plus day stretch in late December:)
I hate to say, but it doesn’t look great going into to January for a good snowy pattern; the oscillations, overall Polar Vortex strengthening in Alaska and such just ain’t there to favor a cold eastern US. It doesn’t mean we can’t get snow as it doesn’t have to be a very cold pattern, but overall, we need consistency in some cold intrusions with staying power and doesn’t look good at this point in time for at least the next few weeks:(
In a nutshell, all the indices, oscillations, etc, aren’t looking good right now for any sustained winter weather into the US.
I hope the GFS Ensembles are on to something and not just a fantasy land tease. Unfortunately, the CPC sees things differently with above normal temperatures across most of the country and below normal precipitation in the OV in the 8-14 day outlook. Expand the outlook into weeks 3 and 4 into mid January and the temperatures are forecasted to average above normal across most of the eastern US. Let’s hope the mid-November brief cold snap and light snow isn’t the only “significant” winter we see this year (just like last year).
I could be wrong, but I doubt the below average precip. Looks like next week goes back into a similar pattern we had during the first of December and end of November. Stormy and average to above average temps overall. Not a blowtorch pattern like this week but not great for winter weather either.
Yeah, the pattern looks similar. Regarding precipitation, a good part of western and north-central KY are running deficits this month. Unless this weekend’s system brings a couple of inches of rain, these areas may end December with below normal precipitation.
When I add up my last three years worth of snow, it doesn’t make it up to a normal one year total. It looks like I will probably be able to add this year and still not make to a one year normal total.
As far as personally keeping my own data (nothing much official to go by in Harlan) last year was the least in my lifetime for a seasonal total with 3 and 1/4…that is adding all tiny snows together, horrible season. I have seen a couple seasons around 5 inches before such as the prior 2 winters of 2016 and 2017 and back in 2012 season plus a few in the 2000s decade. This year is not much better at 3 and 1/2 but still time (hopefully) to add some. If not for that last minute snow the week before last, this season would actually be slightly worse-to-date than last year as most of our snow fell in late November last year, pitiful:(
So I guess most on here throughout KY and neighboring states may be off to a worse start than last season. BLAH. Appears I am in one of the sweet spots this year with a lousy 3 and 1/4 so far. Humbug!
Merry Christmas to all.