Good evening, gang. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the current flood threat and to look ahead to where the pattern is going for the week ahead and beyond.
Let’s talk flooding. Many areas have already picked up 1″-2″ and another 1″-2″ will be possible through the wee hours of Monday morning. Obviously, this increases our flood potential and that’s especially true as thunderstorms get into the mix.
Our Watch continues…
Expect to see some warnings go up at some point…
The potential for a few strong or severe storms is also there, especially across southern parts of the state…
The damaging wind threat stays as the top dog. Winds outside of storms will increase tonight and continue into Monday as colder air wraps in. We should also get in on a dry slot of air, but watch for a few showers to develop later in the day.
Several models continue to show some light snow and snow showers wrapping around into the region Monday night through New Year’s Eve. The GFS Ensembles and Canadian models have had this for several days and now the NAM is showing the possibility…
After a break in the action for New Year’s Day, another heavy rain maker looks to target the region for Thursday and Friday. There’s also a developing trend to end some of that as a touch of snow by Saturday…
A cold blast of air follows that by Sunday and could bring some snow showers and flurries…
The setup for the following week is the first one to really get my interest. Cold air isn’t going to be a problem and we look to have a lot of energy sliding on the southern edge of it. The Euro is in a ‘to phase or not to phase’ mood. The last run was close to a phase, but is missing the connection…
The prior run ad a fully phased storm…
Winter weather lovers finally have some action to track!
Here are your Sunday evening tracking toys…
Current watches
Possible Watch Areas
Make it a good one and take care.
Harlan is barely missing out on some big time rains. The strong SE wind wedging has only kept the Appalachian mt counties dry today and super warm here in Bell, Harlan, Letcher and Pike. All of us in the low elevations reached well over 70! Now, the front will hit the gas tonight and bring my yard a little rainfall later.
I have plenty of rain to spare 1.21 inches so far.
It’s finally moving in. I might get an inch tonight as there is some significant convection to my SW but the speed will be fairly progressive for my area as I have missed all of the earlier rounds of rain.
0.05 so far.
I like the looks of next week. Hopefully the cold sticks around and all the models come to a phased solution. As I have said before, mid Jan thru Feb will be fun and games. We are way over due for a cold and snowy winter. Thanks for the flood update CB.
Hopefully we get something to track.Might be the last until February.Man oh man what a S.E ridge.Just plain ugly.Good thing itโs only the end of December.Guess we wait and see.
Plenty of heavy rain ๐ and a few strong/severe thunderstorms to track ๐ .
For winter tracking, one may want keep this in mind. Despite its more southernly location, Memphis TN has had its top two single storm snows in March!
Oh March, besides the wonderful (my perspective), infamous March Superstorm, I remember another good one in my lifetime in March 1996…10 to 12 inches fell the first day of Spring in part of KY. I think Harlan only received a few inches from that one but a big hit back towards Bowling Green on north into Indiana!
My cheap rain gauge has measured about 1.90 inches so far.
Thankfully, the only current severe weather watch is a relatively low tier Tornado Watch in Alabama up to the TN line. But there is a fair lightning show to the southeast of Nashville TN. Also lightning approaching Middlesboro, KY so maybe Terry will see some fireworks soon!
Severe Thunderstorm Warning was recently in effect for Cookeville TN on the Tennessee Plateau. Areas in/near Monticello/Somerset KY will be next; even if not severe t-storms, could still be more heavy rain for already saturated ground.
You know it’s wet and mild when you find frogs climbing up your garage door.