Good Thursday, everyone. Rounds of heavy rain are moving back into the region today, setting the stage for another round of possible flooding. The greatest threat continues to be across areas of southern and southeastern parts of the state.
I haven’t budged on the rain numbers for the past few days and still don’t see much of a reason to change things…
With so much water in the ground and already filling our streams and rivers, it just will not take much to cause more high water issues for some.
Here’s hoping Flood Watches finally show up…
Once again, there is literally ZERO harm in putting out a Flood Watch in a situation like this.No one is saying it’s going to be widespread, major flooding, but it just takes one instance of flooding to take a life. This last event wasn’t major, yet we had several water rescues. Oh yea… flooding is the number one severe weather related killer.
The models are on board the heavy rain train.
Euro
Canadian
The GFS continues to catch up…
All of this ends as snow wrapping in behind the departing snow Saturday into Saturday night…
Will any of that stick? We shall see.
The next system rolling in by Tuesday continues to have some legs for winter lovers…
I will have additional updates later today. Until then, here are your early day tracking tools…
Have a good one and take care.
You know the drill Chris, Warnings before Watches is the normal standard practice in KY, LOL…been like this about all of my life anyways. Even the GFS is closing in on 3 inches now in my area but they ain’t biting! Maybe they will issue one later today before the heavy rain begins, maybe not:)
Looks like the main snow action has shifted a bit more north since last nights post. Who’d a thunk it? 😉
Looks like the heavy rain is to, well on the GFS. Still no flood watch but I guess we can handle 2 to 4 inches of rain without any major flooding. Still, Chris is correct as minor flooding can kill people. I remember when I was somewhere around 10 years old, a lady and unborn baby died due to high water; she hydroplaned or something and went into a creek due to severe road conditions. The conditions where only around flood stage but that was enough to cause the tragic accident in Harlan.
Temps got down to 28 this morning in my backyard but has since recovered
During this period in history in 1964, parts of the south were trying to recover from a memorable if disruptive snowstorm. Lawrenceburg TN received 16 inches while an all time record 17 inches fell at Huntsville AL. Meridian MS measured 15 inches snow. Even New Orleans LA had 4.5 inches. The Kentucky mens basketball team was playing Duke for the then-basketball Sugar Bowl championship in New Orleans on Dec 31 when the snowstorm knocked out power! Once electricity was finally restored, the Wildcats went on to edge the Blue Devils.
This 1964 event seems similar to a January 2011 snowstorm as the Tennessee-Alabama line got similar heavy amounts of snow both years.
Groundhog Day without the snow.
Sorry, but know way on earth will it snow next Tuesday! That low will go right up through Ohio River, bring rain again.
You’re right. It will most certainly be too warm and as is the case now, it only snows North of I70.
The northern model adjustment has started for main action, so would not be surprising. We could see in infam “coating to few inches” map. That covers all the bases 😉
I think, even a coating is too much to hope for.
I don’t know. I agree with CB. What’s the harm in a Watch? It seems the main line of NWS reasoning is that the bulk of the storm total will occur over a 48-hour period, more spread out with breaks, not 18 consecutive hours like the last event. Still, areal flooding could become aggravated, since water levels are still running high. Therefore, an areal flood watch seems feasible, if just for the sake of affected river systems.
I agree. Also, there appears to be some limited convection, but enough forcing, for heavy rain with the short wave ahead of the front tonight that may push north into far SE KY with up to 2 inches of rain in a short duration of time. I am about 100% confidence we will end up with at least a few Flood Advisories but I about bet a few warnings tomorrow too.
Winters in Kentucky….where dreams come to be crushed for snow lovers.
Remember the good ole days when we were tracking a snow system with REAL legs almost weekly?
Just a few short years ago, but it seems more like over a decade ago.