Good Thursday everyone. August is usually the time of year I start looking around at what some of the seasonal models are showing for the fall and winter ahead. I promised I would share some of these models with you this week and today is the day.
These models are to be taken with a gain of salt, but a few of them have had a pretty good track record over the past few years. The main seasonal model I’m talking about actually comes from Japan. This model did an outstanding job of forecasting last winters warmth across the eastern part of the country. This is what the model was forecasting from last August…
The August, 2012 run for the winter ahead is out and it has a much different look from last winter…
This run has is forecasting a colder than normal winter for our region and much of the east and south. Do any of the other seasonal models agree with it? NASA has one that does…
This model has a much more expansive area of cold across the central and eastern part of the country. Again… these are not to be taken at face value, but It is good to see some respected seasonal models with a cold signature for the winter ahead.
I’m in the process of searching for analogs to the summer we are wrapping up and it’s tough to find any. Drought, record rains, historic heat and record lows aren’t something many of our summers in the past can offer.
On the here and now level…
– Temps today will be in the mid 80s east and low and mid 90s far west.
– Readings will hit the upper 80s for many from Friday into the weekend. The west will be much warmer.
– There is the slightest chance for a popcorn shower or storm during this time.
– A cold front will push our way by Sunday night and Monday with showers and thunderstorms and cooler temps.
– Tropical Storm Isaac is still strolling across the Caribbean and should impact Florida or the Gulf of Mexico by late this weekend into early next week. Odds favor this being a slow starter, but growing into a hurricane by the time it heads toward the U.S. .
– Can we get some rain from this? It’s still way to early to tell… but there’s a chance by the middle and end of next week.
Have a great Thursday and take care.
The teachers are wondering if we can have a snow every Friday afternoon to be enjoyed on Saturday on gone by Sunday night. We really enjoyed the “long” summer.
Yay! I hope the cold part comesw true, even if it is snowless, Chris. Of course, I prefer snow to go with it, but, we need the cold weather to combat the bugs….this summer has been terrible for that!
Looking forward to seeing what you can find to compare this year to. I know you will find something! 😉
i agree, i want snow and cold, i feel cheated out of last year.
The signals for winter do indeed look interesting. I find it funny that the CPC official seasonal outlook continues to basically predict 180 degrees opposite of what’s happening so far for August-September in the Ohio Valley. But with this info. Chris posted I think it brings to mind that this year could be the one…we are due.
You know, every year, its the same thing. The first outlooks for the winter are always on the cool side and wet. Unless the drought situation in the Midwest and western Ohio Valley changes significantly, it will most likely end up cold/dry in the OV…but only time will tell.
-MJ
Question about those winter projected temperature maps: Is it possible for Canada and much of Alaska to be above normal while the southeast is cooler than normal? I thought our cold air comes down to us from Canada? Can anyone explain in layman’s terms?
Of course! Often a ridge is needed over the west and AK to really get good cold air into the OH valley and east.
Don’t have the knowledge that you and others do but my guess is that when Alaska had one of the coldest Januarys on record in 2012 that spelled bad news for snows lovers in our neck of the woods.
Good link to watch Isaac, from the BVI on Jost Van Dyke: http://www.soggydollar.com/webcam.aspx
The radar at NWS Wilmington OH is now offline and is undergoing its dual-pol upgrade.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/iln/dualpol.php
Users need to rely on other radars while Wilmington is down. For areas closer to central KY, this can include relying on NWS Louisville, NWS Jackson KY……..and WKYT’s First Alert Defender radar. 😉 First Alert Defender is already dual-pol.
NWS Charleston WV is next to be upgraded, once Wilmington is finished in another five days or so (a few KY counties are under jurisdiction of either Wilmington or Charleston).
NWS Louisville – the radar itself is at Ft Knox – is currently scheduled for dual-pol upgrade in late Oct, followed by NWS Jackson KY. But upgrade crews have been on a fast pace, so it may not be too surprising if upgrade work for Louisville and Jackson starts early (Wilmington OH is being upgraded a few weeks ahead of schedule).
NWS Paducah is scheduled for upgrade in January 2013. The radars at Ft Campbell KY and Evansville (both used by NWS Paducah) will follow.
All NWS radars in Tennessee (Memphis, Nashville, Morristown) were upgraded earlier this year, thus many KY counties near the TN line already have peripheral dual-pol coverage.
We have dual-pol now here at the Mount Holly, NJ office. It’s a nice upgrade and a another source of information for those issuing forecasts/warnings based on radar. Worth being offline for a few days.
I bet you are also looking forward to phased array weather radar, although widespread deployment is likely many years from now.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDWUTngdpls
Oh, congrats on your big career move to the NWS! Looks like your time at WKU learning meteorology has served you well (I graduated WKU four years ago albeit with a non-science degree, now working in Nashville TN area).
The dual-pol update at Louisville will be in November…not October. Right after LVX gets done, they will be going to JKL.
You are right, LVX is currently scheduled for early Nov. I was going by (faulty) memory.
This said, the tech team only has Des Moines (upgrade starts Sept 4), Central Illinois and Indy before LVX. Several radars have been upgraded in only days and up to four weeks ahead of schedule. Guess time will tell if LVX and JKL are upgraded early.
This tropical system approaching early next week will never get close to KY because of the front dropping in here for tues thru wed period, that front will guide it to the south and east of our area unfortunately, drought busting rains missed again because of a badly timed front, figures??
I saw a bird fly just south of NNE, a Praying Mantis sin, a golfer get a bogey after hitting a birdie, a goose getting goosed by a woman, and a butterfly making a cocoon and coming out as a caterpillar! It’s got to be a sign of a bad winter! Here’s hoping
Yeah and i had to call the police due to a robbery!! Yep a darn squirrel was dragging my snowshovel up a tree !! LOL!!