Tracking Our Weekend Weather and Isaac

Good Friday everyone. We are steamrolling our way into the weekend on a rather steamy note across the bluegrass state. Temps will hit their highest mark since the first week of the month. Where the weather goes from here depends a lot on what happens with Tropical Storm Isaac.

High temps today will range from the mid and upper 80s in the east to mid 90s in the far west. Similar temps will be noted into Saturday and Sunday as partly sunny skies continue. We will have the smallest threat for a popcorn thunderstorm going up in the east.

A cold front arrives Sunday night into Monday with some scattered showers and thunderstorms. This front will knock our temps down several degrees. That’s about as much as I can say about the weather for next week. It all depends on what happens with Tropical Storm Isaac as it is likely to be a hurricane in the gulf by this time.

The forecast track of this system continues to shift a little farther westward toward the central Gulf of Mexico. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center…

That system has the POTENTIAL to bring some much needed rainfall to Kentucky by the middle and end of next week. The new GFS does bring this system into our part of the world by late Wednesday. Here’s how it looks upon landfall then once it’s well inland…

Don’t go turning the sprinklers off just yet as we have a ton of questions to be answered before knowing for sure of we can get some of that tropical moisture.

Have a great Friday and take care.

10 Comments

Todd on August 24, 2012 at 2:43 pm

Just as I thought a few days ago, latest computer models take the tropical moisture as it hits the gulf coast and shifts it quickly off the south east coast, major rains in Georgia, South Carolina, N. Carolina, the drought is getting bad in CKY again, this would have been a great chance to end it, looks like the rain gods are scared of KY?

chris on August 24, 2012 at 3:30 pm
No they don’t.
- Andy Rose on August 24, 2012 at 3:52 pm
  Thanks
  - Todd on August 24, 2012 at 4:32 pm
    If you say so, we shall see??

Aaron C. on August 24, 2012 at 4:53 pm

Been watching Isaac for a while now..he looks to be indeed heading further west. Had predicted last night that this may be an Alabama/Mississippi storm, with Florida receiving the weaker end of the storm. It should also be noted that Isaac is a southwestern-loaded storm, at least so far he has been. The heaviest of the precip has remained to the southwest of the center of circulation for quite some time—and it appears that as of last night, Isaac was gaining strength as it was stretching out convective arms to try and expand.

Aaron C. on August 24, 2012 at 4:55 pm

I am thinking in terms of how this storm will shape up—-“memorable” is the word….not Katrina memorable, just memorable, as in—a strong storm, but not devastating. Let’s hope.

Todd on August 24, 2012 at 5:59 pm

I love how this debate about the tropical storm and it’s eventual path sounds like a winter storm coming in, I have watched mets from Louisville and lex weather outlets and they all say something different, but most are saying not much rain for most of KY out of this, not my words but the overall trend in local mets thinking???

MJ on August 24, 2012 at 8:59 pm
Unfortunately most folks are simply looking at the hurricane models for guidance. However, the real players in the eventual track of Isaac are those that are forecast to cross through the continental US this weekend and into early next week. The GFS and Euro handle these features differently. I believe that we’re seeing the typical GFS over-phase bias which results in a more eastward track and then quickly up the east coast. The Euro has been fairly consistent (sans a few blips here and there) with a landfall along the AL/FL border. Given the upper air features across the US, this seems more likely. If this holds true, then we’re likely to see the remnants move northward into the Ohio Valley late next week. I would not be surprised to see increased rain chances in subsequent forecasts. The tell-tale sign will come later this weekend. If Isaac stays east of SW FL, then Mobile better be ready.
-MJ
- MJ on August 24, 2012 at 9:00 pm
  …err that last sentence should be…If Isaac stays west of SW FL, then Mobile better be ready.

john on August 26, 2012 at 9:08 am

I will have work in Chavies Kentucky,on Tue. (all outside) What does the weather look like for this part of KY.???

Todd on August 24, 2012 at 2:43 pm
Just as I thought a few days ago, latest computer models take the tropical moisture as it hits the gulf coast and shifts it quickly off the south east coast, major rains in Georgia, South Carolina, N. Carolina, the drought is getting bad in CKY again, this would have been a great chance to end it, looks like the rain gods are scared of KY?
- chris on August 24, 2012 at 3:30 pm
  No they don’t.
  - Andy Rose on August 24, 2012 at 3:52 pm
    Thanks
    - Todd on August 24, 2012 at 4:32 pm
      If you say so, we shall see??
Aaron C. on August 24, 2012 at 4:53 pm
Been watching Isaac for a while now..he looks to be indeed heading further west. Had predicted last night that this may be an Alabama/Mississippi storm, with Florida receiving the weaker end of the storm. It should also be noted that Isaac is a southwestern-loaded storm, at least so far he has been. The heaviest of the precip has remained to the southwest of the center of circulation for quite some time—and it appears that as of last night, Isaac was gaining strength as it was stretching out convective arms to try and expand.
Aaron C. on August 24, 2012 at 4:55 pm
I am thinking in terms of how this storm will shape up—-“memorable” is the word….not Katrina memorable, just memorable, as in—a strong storm, but not devastating. Let’s hope.
Todd on August 24, 2012 at 5:59 pm
I love how this debate about the tropical storm and it’s eventual path sounds like a winter storm coming in, I have watched mets from Louisville and lex weather outlets and they all say something different, but most are saying not much rain for most of KY out of this, not my words but the overall trend in local mets thinking???
- MJ on August 24, 2012 at 8:59 pm
  Unfortunately most folks are simply looking at the hurricane models for guidance. However, the real players in the eventual track of Isaac are those that are forecast to cross through the continental US this weekend and into early next week. The GFS and Euro handle these features differently. I believe that we’re seeing the typical GFS over-phase bias which results in a more eastward track and then quickly up the east coast. The Euro has been fairly consistent (sans a few blips here and there) with a landfall along the AL/FL border. Given the upper air features across the US, this seems more likely. If this holds true, then we’re likely to see the remnants move northward into the Ohio Valley late next week. I would not be surprised to see increased rain chances in subsequent forecasts. The tell-tale sign will come later this weekend. If Isaac stays east of SW FL, then Mobile better be ready.
  -MJ
  - MJ on August 24, 2012 at 9:00 pm
    …err that last sentence should be…If Isaac stays west of SW FL, then Mobile better be ready.
john on August 26, 2012 at 9:08 am
I will have work in Chavies Kentucky,on Tue. (all outside) What does the weather look like for this part of KY.???

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