Good Thursday to one and all. We have had a string of very nice weather days across the state and we get one more out there today. This dry weather is much needed after the two big rain storms of the past week and change. It is even more welcome since we have another big rain event taking aim at the region this weekend and another one looming for the middle of next week.

We can now chalk up one more tornado to this past severe weather outbreak as the NWS Jackson has confirmed a tornado touchdown in Wolfe County. This early Monday twister was an EF-1 marking only the second recorded tornado on record for the county. Here is a look at the path…



Jackson did a good job with the outbreak and had a tornado warning out for this very storm. I remember sending out a tweet on this bad boy about circulation showing up near the Mt. Parkway and that was where this tornado touched down.

As we look ahead… we find a very nice Thursday before the next storm system rolls into town over the weekend.  Highs today will range from 60 in the south and west to the low and mid 50s north with partly sunny skies.

Moisture will begin to stream in Friday with showers developing across much of the region. There could be a rumble or two of thunder go to along with the rains.

Low pressure will develop quickly across the plains Friday and move toward the Great Lakes by Saturday morning. This will drag a cold front toward the area by Saturday afternoon and evening. A wave of low pressure will be developing along this boundary as it slowly works eastward. With an ample moisture supply… widespread rain and some thunderstorms will become likely. This setup is likely to bring more heavy rains to the entire state. Here is a look at what i’m currently expecting…



I will fine tune that map over the next few days… but this does not bode well for an already waterlogged region.
Many rivers are running at or above flood stage… including points along the Ohio River and this will likely cause another round of rises this weekend and early next week. The good news is we have had a string of dry days to create a nice lag time between heavy rains.

Regardless of the lag… more high water problems will be possible this coming weekend.

This low will have a nice surge of colder air moving in behind it Saturday night into Sunday and the rain has a good shot at ending at some wet snow on Sunday. You can see this transition on the GFS…



Once this storm blows through by late Sunday… we get a few days to dry out into early next week before the next storm arrives. This looks like another heavy rain maker with a deepening storm heading through the region into the Great Lakes.

Remember all that cold air in the Canada and the northern plains? The models are really suggesting it makes a run at us behind next week’s storm…

GFS Thursday Evening


With or without that push of cold… our stormy pattern looks to roll on with two more big systems to impact our region over the next week. We will have more updates on the weekend storm as needed so check back.

Have a great Thursday and take care.