Good Monday everyone. October is starting out on a nasty note as heavy rain and chilly temps take control of our day. All of this is in response to a big storm system working in from the deep south. This bad boy will give us some big temp swings over the next few days as we await the arrival of a cold pattern by this weekend into early next week.
If you are a regular leader of the blog, you will know I have been telling you to keep an eye on a southern storm for a while now. This storm has been on the models for many days now, they just didn’t know what to do with it. This is why it’s always better to read the pattern than to base a forecast solely off a computer model.
Regardless… this fall rainstorm arrives today and will hang around like a bad house guest into Wednesday. Heavy rain and some rumbles of thunder overspread the state from south to north today and this will keep our temps mainly in the 50s for many areas. The area of low pressure will move right on top of the state by Tuesday…
As the low works in overnight… temps will surge on a southerly wind flow. Readings by Tuesday will be well into the 70s and this instability will mean we need to watch for a strong storm or two trying to blow up… especially in the east.
That low will continue to lift to our northeast into Wednesday and this allows for cooler air to work back in from the northwest. Highs Wednesday will have a tough time getting out of the low and middle 60s as a few showers linger.
Thursday sees our temps bounce back into the 70s as winds gust up from the southwest. All of this is ahead of a massive trough digging into the central and eastern parts of the country. This looks like a series of fronts swinging in over the weekend and we will need to watch for a wave of low pressure developing along one of these boundaries. If that happens… some nasty conditions will be possible.
The blast of cold air will be expansive across the country and is likely to deliver us sub freezing temps at some point this weekend or next week. Check out what an impressive block develops up into western Canada and Alaska…
This is the exact opposite trend we were seeing this time last fall with a massive vortex and trough in that same region. That persisted into winter and effectively killed snow and cold threats across the lower 48. Will the current trend of blocking carry us through the rest of fall and upcoming winter? It’s too early to tell, but if it does… look out.
Have a great Monday and take care.
I know this is off topic, but I ran across this video of an insane microburst on youtube and wanted to share. Wow!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vwKs72E6TOo
that was, well, wow to say the least!!!! reminded me of the storms back on june 29th 2012.
Here comes the SNOW!!!!
So, IF the current trend of blocking carries us through the rest of fall and upcoming winter, does that mean that we will have a rough winter with colder than normal temps and above average precipitation? (Sorry — still trying to learn all this terminology.)
The real blocking affects our winter weather is the presence or lack of weather balloons in Mexico.
Did anyone else see the big ring around the moon last night? I saw it around midnight and tried to take a picture, but it didn’t come out very good. I think it was the biggest ring I’d ever seen and then with a lighter, second ring even farther away. Along part of the edge of the ring, you could actually see some color differentation that reminded me of a weak rainbow. Anyway, pretty neat.
My grandmother always said a ring around the moon meant rain was coming. In this case, that is definitely true!
One sunny day she pointed to some smoke that was coming from a factory. She noted that the smoke was getting to a certain height and then flattening out and spreading horizontally. She said it was going to rain. It didn’t seem likely since there wasn’t a cloud in the sky. Sure enough, it rained buckets later that day.
typically rings around the moon signify a weather pattern change.
Glad someone else saw it. It was really neat and just like you described it.
Yeah, I saw it here in Virginia. It was just as you described it, it was really neat to see it. It was around 3:45am. Where were you when you saw it?
Very little rain so far in Frankfort area today, looks like another underachiever for my area, looks like rain bands east and west but not much in Ncentral area, hopefully a few more showers will make it here because we have missed all the heavy stuff lately.
Chris, I am headed out to Florida on Friday. Please don’t tell me I am going to either be very cold while there, or miss a snow up here! 😉 (Just kidding) Sounds like it is going to get chilly here for sure! I know we have had heavy rain all day. Whne I get a chance to go home and look at the rain gauge, I will send you a total. Have a great Monday, and stay dry! Thanks, Chris for all you do. Hope your parents are still doing better.
Tornado watch in effect for parts of south central Tennessee. Hmm, will this stuff hold on to enough instability and sheer to put Kentucky under the threat of an isolated small twister or two over the next 24 hours? The SPC is hinting this might happen, time will tell.
Anyway, the months of Oct and Nov are somewhat of a secondary severe weather season for our area. While KY/TN have not recorded twisters stronger than F2/EF2 in July, Aug and Sept, F3s/EF3s have happened in Oct. Also, F4s/EF4s have struck in Nov (including the F4 that hit Madisonville KY in Nov of 2005). Indeed, winter twisters – even if relatively rare – can be a lot worse than summer tornadoes (a series of F4s in KY/TN in January 1890, the bad “SuperTuesday” outbreak of Feb 2008, etc).
This is a good time to check that your weather alert radios are working. People in mobile homes strongly need to have a good evacuation plan (all 13 Indiana deaths and 18 of the 22 Kentucky deaths last March 2 were in mobile homes).
As CB just tweeted, portions of southern KY now under a tornado watch (including Somerset). Even if somewhat of a low-end tornado threat, still something to keep an eye on:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0659.html
There will be a bit of a severe threat for Tuesday as well.