Good afternoon, folks. Tropical temps are with us today and for the week as we watch tropical moisture stream in ahead of Laura down in the Gulf of Mexico. This will become a hurricane soon and head toward Louisiana before lifting toward our region. How much of an impact it has on our weather remains to be seen, but a few subtle changes are showing up in the track.
Let’s kick things off with the local radars to track a few storms across the southeast…
Clusters of storms will roll across the northern and eastern parts of the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. This action may clip the north and northeast. That’s where we have a low-end severe storms risk…
Tropical rain producing showers and storms then look to increase late Wednesday into Thursday as juice streams in ahead of Laura.
Laura has a shot at becoming a major hurricane before coming ashore late Wednesday. The National Hurricane Center continues to paint the entire state in the cone of uncertainty in terms of where the remnants track…
The latest data suggests we may see a faster turn toward the east once this system works up the Mississippi Valley. Notice how the tropical models have shifted into southern Kentucky and Tennessee…
The individual runs of the GFS Ensembles are close to that…
If we look at a couple of the more advanced hurricane models, Laura is a powerhouse as it comes into Louisiana. The HWRF shows the remnant low from this right over Kentucky late Friday and early Saturday…
The HMON has more of that sharp east turn from the tropical model spaghetti plots…
The operational run of the Euro is a cross between the two models from above and takes the low right on top of the Kentucky/Tennessee border…
The Canadian continues to make the turn right on top of the bluegrass state…
Where this turn happens makes all the difference in the world for us. Areas along and east of the track of the low will have some wild weather to deal with. Heavy rains, high winds and severe storms will all be possible where this happens.
Stay tuned!
I may throw you guys another update later this evening. Have a good one and take care.
It’s a late-season heat wave here in the Chicago Metro area, with temps well over 90 degrees. The 5 PM EDT temperature map shows that Chicago is the warmest major city east of the Mississippi River, at 93 degrees (Louisville is at 92).
In contrast to Kentucky, it’s been really dry throughout our area, as we have had only a quarter of an inch of rain or less in the last two weeks after that wild derecho blew through. Lawns are rapidly browning.
Three more days of 90s are on the way, with near record-high temps predicted by Wednesday.
Mike, I hope Fall comes early as Summer has out stayed it’s welcome. I saw some videos on the damage from that Derecho in the state of Iowa. An agricultural disaster to say the lease.
Thanks Chris, I am glad that Tropical Storm Marco was sheared off before becoming a hurricane.
Now we will focus on Laura and the possibility it may be a major hurricane when it enters the central Gulf of Mexico where the surface sea temperatures are in the 80’s.
I remember Hurricane Camille in August 1969. She was a category 5 at landfall along the coast of Mississippi. A lot of lives were lost. Worse hurricane in my lifetime ! I’ve told this to everyone on here before like I keep bringing up the blizzard of 1978, but these are the two meteorological events I will never forget.
I hope the rains from the remnants of Laura fall where they need it.
now we
I doubt the storm track will move any further south.