Good Monday, folks. We continue to roll with some of the good stuff as fall continues to flex some early season muscle. Not only has our weather been chilly, but it’s also been dry for much of the past week and change. It looks like we have a few more dry days before rain chances return by the end of the week. That will be some moisture from Beta getting in here and that’s ahead of a deep fall storm system that looks to develop near us by the weekend. That may have some nasty with it as it ushers in colder air.

Let us kick things off with a few words about the precious present. Temps start our Monday in the 40s for many and we end things with readings anywhere from the upper 60s to the middle 70s. Skies stay mainly sunny, but clouds start to show up by Tuesday and Wednesday. Those clouds will be in advance of what’s left of Tropical Storm Beta. This system is blowing into Texas today, but that wind shear did a number on our storm. Notice how quickly this is now forecast to lose tropical characteristics…

There’s almost an inverted trough ahead of this that moves into our region by Wednesday. That may bring a few late day showers into western Kentucky. From there, we will have to see how much is left of Beta and just how much lifts into our region Thursday and Friday. The NAM only goes through early Thursday, but the latest run is bringing a big portion of it in here…

The EURO appears to be thinking the same thing and keeps the rains through the start of the weekend…

The Euro then waits until late weekend and early next week to go crazy with a deep trough and ensuring rain and wind event…

That’s a big time shot of cold coming behind that.

The GFS is showing something similar, but it’s doing it in the only way the GFS can do it from this far out…

That run is likely too progressive with the overall trough because… Well… That’s what the GFS does.

I will have another update later today. Have a good one and take care.