Good afternoon, everyone. Our potent fall front is sweeping across the state and bringing the potential for a few strong storms. This front is also throwing a 25 degree temp drop at us as chilly air comes in for the closing days of September. Once into early October, things get even colder with the potential for some frost ahead of another late weekend storm system.

I’m not going to spend much time on what’s going on out there today as I’ve set you guys up for this for well over a week now. Here are your tracking tools for the rest of the day…

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas

Current MDs

As the front slides to our east tonight and Tuesday, a wave of low pressure develops along it. That keeps showers going through the first half of the day in the east. One change I’m making is to introduce the chance for scattered showers for the rest of the state Tuesday afternoon as a pocket of cold air moves overtop of us. You can see that here…

Temps for Tuesday stay in the 50s for parts of eastern Kentucky and only hit 60-65 for the rest of the state.

Another front rolls at us on Thursday and may bring a few gusty showers with it as it drops in from the northwest. Temps ahead of this will be in the 60s for highs Wednesday into Thursday, but the cold air coming in behind it may keep many of us in the 50s for highs Friday and, possibly, Saturday. Lows can reach the 30s both mornings and would bring a frost threat if skies are clear and winds calm down.

Once again, take the under on computer model forecast temps. They have all been pretty awful of late and, honestly, much of the year. They are all biased too warm, but the walking, talking weather apps just blindly follow along. If all we do is regurgitate what a computer model says then our bosses are going to ask what they are paying us for. Right? 🙂

Speaking of model biases, one of the big biases of the GFS is to be too progressive with pretty much everything. That has been showing up with the late weekend system, but the model is starting to figure it out and slow it down as we get closer…

On the other hand, the EURO has plenty of its own biases, especially when it comes to temps. The model has been unusable for anything to do with temps the entire year. Here’s what it’s been showing for the late weekend system…

That will mean some very chilly showers into Sunday and Monday.

Temps should rebound into the middle of next week as we get closer to normal. From there, we are going to have to watch the Caribbean for a tropical system and another trough diving in from the northwest.

Enjoy the day and take care.