Good afternoon, everyone. It’s a gorgeous day out there with temps in the 50s and plenty of sunshine. Fans of this kind of weather will really love the next few days, but hate the pattern coming in behind it. A strong system impacts the region this weekend and ushers in a much more active setup that can deliver winter weather back into the bluegrass state.

The weekend system comes as low pressure works from the Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday. That drags a strong cold front across Kentucky with rain and wind on Saturday. I still have some questions as to what happens from this point on as the front may try to slow down and allow for another low to develop along it. If that happens, it can bring winter weather into parts of Kentucky. If it doesn’t happen, wrap around light snow and flurries look like a good bet Sunday into early Monday.

The GFS continues to advertise the later…

The Canadian seems to be splitting the difference…

The EURO has backed off the monster second low, but this entire run of the EURO looks suspect…

Winds ahead of this Saturday cold front may become a player with gusts approaching 40mph at times…

The next system to watch rolls in here for the middle and end of the week and what kind of weather we get will depend on track and intensity of the storm system.

The Canadian continues to advertise the biggest system, but is just a bit east…

The GFS has the system, but keeps jumping around…

The EURO says what storm? It brings a simple cold front through here…

If you’ve been reading a while, you know the tangent I’ve been on about how the pattern looks to play out over the next few weeks. Also, how bad the ENSEMBLES have been and how some of the hot takes have been. I will spare you and not go back down that rabbit hole, though. 🙂

Last night I made my diagnosis of the GFS Ensembles for Christmas week…

I pointed right at the area the various indices suggest a trough should be. Take a look at the new run of the GFS Ensembles for the same time Christmas week…

Winter weather lovers would love seeing that for Christmas week because it is a cold and possibly wintry look.

The current trend continues to point us toward the potential for extreme blocking setting up. The forecast for the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) continues to show both going strongly negative…

Those two going negative together really hasn’t been seen during the winter in many years and strongly argue for big surge of winter weather across the lower 48. We can also see a bit of  a west coast ridge getting established with a deep trough in the Aleutian Islands.

I will try to update things later this evening, but no promises. Have a good one and take care.