Good Wednesday, everyone. We’ve made it to the middle of the week and we have some very nice weather taking control of the pattern for the next few days. This much milder setup only lasts through the start of the weekend before big changes blow in this weekend. That’s when a strong cold front rolls into the state with rain, wind and a big drop in temps. Can we get some winter weather behind this front? Hmmm
Temps out there today spike into the 50s as skies clean up nicely from the southwest. This southwest flow boosts temps toward the upper 50s and low 60s for Thursday into Friday. If you’re a fan of this, enjoy it. If you’re not a fan of it, it’s not going to stick around very long and goes bye-bye this weekend.
A storm system develops across the plains states and rides toward the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday. That drags a cold front across Kentucky with rain and gusty winds ahead of the boundary and a big temp drop behind it. The front is likely to slow down across the Appalachian Mountains as another low tried to develop and work along it. If that happens, it ups the ante on the potential for winter weather around here later Sunday and Monday. If it doesn’t develop, we would have to settle for some wraparound flakes behind the first low.
The GFS continues to be the most progressive with this setup…
The Canadian sees the second low, but keeps it to our south and southeast…
The EURO continues to be the strongest and farthest west with this second storm…
As far as the middle of the week system is concerned, the models are split with that one. The EURO seems to put all its eggs in the second low above and doesn’t really bring anything but a light snow system in here.
The Canadian is the strongest with this system and takes a classic track…
The GFS has the system, but in true GFS fashion it always jumps on the northern stream energy…
So, there’s no shortage of action to track through next week and this may very well continue through Christmas week. I’ve been pointing out the trends on the Ensembles and the new GFS Ensemble goes through Christmas Eve and shows several features coming together to try and put a trough right back in our region…
I will drop by for my normal updates later today. Have a good one and take care.
Backside flurries this weekend.
Thanks Chris, Will look forward to the milder temperatures the next few days and I hope there will be Sunshine to go along with it.
As for Winter weather developing for my area of the state towards the middle of the month, it is much too early to predict in my opinion. The three main weather models are not agreeing at this time so throw them out and wait.
Enjoyed the Canadian eye candy. LOL
If the NAO goes extremely negative this may lock in the Arctic air in the east, but the question is will there be any phasing with the Subtropical jet to produce snowstorms in the Ohio Valley ?