Good evening, folks. I got a little busy with my real gig, but I promised to drop by for another update and I’m a weatherdude of my word. (Mostly :)) I’ve talked a lot about the pattern for the next week or so, but I wanted to quickly focus a little more on the longer range look.
I’ve been showing the dramatic changes in the Ensembles for the past few days and it’s been pretty awesome to watch the correction on them.
Check out the new GFS Ensembles showing a coast to coast trough next week…
I’ve shown the evolution of the EURO Ensembles for Christmas week and now we are seeing the GFS Ensembles changing as well…
That’s even trying to pump more ridging up the west coast to go along with blocking over Greenland and the Arctic. Interesting.
You’ve heard a lot from me this year on how the Ensembles and seasonal models have been skewed so darn warm and can’t see a trough or cold until it’s right upon them. Look at the EURO Seasonal 500mb Forecast for December that was issued November 1st…
Now look at the same model for December issued December 1st when it was apparent a deep trough was already on top of us to start the month…
The same goes for the CANSIPS Seasonal for December…
November 1st forecast…
December 1st forecast…
I rest my case. 🙂
Enjoy the rest of the evening and take care.
If the Ensembles pan out, we may be looking at our best chance for a South Central Kentucky White Xmas in recent memory. The sketchy nature of previously stable forecast models over the past few years has meteorologists yanking their hair out by the handful. Much of this chaos can be put at the feet of climate change; how much is so difficult to predict, but it’s clear that once reliable algorithms will need some tweaking.