Good afternoon, everyone. Clouds continue to hold the temps well below normal for much of Kentucky this afternoon. The numbers do come up for the rest of the week, but the focus is on a very active pattern starting this weekend and likely taking us right into the upcoming Christmas holiday season. It’s one that should be able to produce more winter weather in our part of the world.

Let’s jump ahead to the weekend setup and go from there. A strong storm system works toward the Great Lakes on Saturday and drags a potent cold front into Kentucky. This brings gusty winds and heavy rain ahead of the front and a major temp drop behind it. Does another low develop along the front as it moves in here? That’s the big question in the coming days because, if it does develop, it would up the ante on the potential for winter weather around here by Sunday and Monday. If not, then we are still likely to see some wraparound light snow and flake action.

The EURO continues to go with a slower solution and deeper second storm, but it’s still east. That said, it is trending west from earlier runs…

The Canadian also has the second low, but is flatter just to our east…

The GFS continues to be the GFS and the model is proving itself to be fairly inept this early winter season. Unfortunately, your apps and human weather apps just regurgitate everything the GFS says as a fact and go on their merry way.

The GFS continues to be the most progressive with the weekend setup because that’s a bias of the model. Notice how the model cannot simply key on where to put low pressure. Watch it jump around with the placement of the low…

It doesn’t see the second low and that may very well be accurate in that regard, but the model itself is still struggling with the first low. Still, it produces wraparound light snow and flurries.

The setup behind this has my attention for the middle and end of next week because we are likely to see another storm or two coming from the southwest. Depending on the track of these systems, winter weather will be possible around our region. We may actually see some good old fashioned fence-riders, which is something we haven’t seen in several years.

The GFS still can’t figure out where to put lows or how strong to make them…

If you recall, the GFS had the exact same issues with the snow event to end November and Start December.

The EURO has lost the system because it cranks the one in front of it so much…

Looking farther down the road, we find the Ensembles taking on a vastly different look as we head toward Christmas week. The trend toward colder we talked about is showing up very well as they sense the blocking and a lack of a strong MJO signal…

EURO Ensembles

EURO ENSEMBLES CONTROL

TORCH!!!!!!!!!!!!! 😉

I will have another update this evening, so check back. Have a good one and take care.