Good afternoon, everyone. It’s another mild day in the Commonwealth and this rolls into the start of the weekend. We are still tracking a potent cold front moving in here on Saturday with gusty winds and rounds of showers a rumble of thunder. What comes behind that front is much colder air with the potential for winter weather as early as Sunday night.
We are essentially tracking two winter weather threats over the next week. The first system follows the front Sunday night and Monday as low pressure tracks just to our south. The next system follows that up by Tuesday night and hangs around into Wednesday and Thursday.
The determining factor on how much winter weather from these systems will be the track of each low and just how strong they can get.
Let’s start with the first low. The air ahead of this in Kentucky is likely to be within a few degrees of the freezing mark. Even with the track of the low to our south, there isn’t a huge cold high to our north to funnel in really cold air. This means the potential for rain and snow rolling eastward across the state. Just how much of the state will be impacted by this remains to be seen, but it’s something we will be watching for.
The NAM looks like this through 7pm Sunday…
This run of the GFS is flat and mainly a cold rain because of it…
The EURO shows rain and snow…
So again, we have to wait and see how this plays out before determining which areas of the state can get in on the most winter weather from this.
What happens with this system may also impact, or be impacted, by the second one quickly developing behind it. This moves our way by Tuesday evening and takes us into Wednesday and Thursday. This may be a setup with a weak low working into the Tennessee Valley and weakening as a stronger low develops to our east. Those can also bring the “fence” into our region, making for a mixed bag of weather. I warned you guys days ago we would be seeing some fence riders setting up around here and that may very well happen.
The GFS brings rain and snow to snow…
The EURO is similar, but colder…
Winter weather potential is on the table over the next week, but that’s about all I can say at this point. My evening update may be later than normal, so bear with me.
Enjoy the day and take care.
The snow accumulation fence appears to be I-75.
West of I-65 looks like festive flakes at best.
I don’t even think we will see much rain out the main system due in here on Saturday ? And we are getting dry here in south central Kentucky.
This La Nina phase along with the southeast ridge is not helping our chances for a decent snowstorm for Christmas.
One thing I don’t understand is the following : In the years 1917-18 ( La Nina phase of ENSO in place) went down as one of the coldest and snowiest Winters in meteorology history.
Now when La Nina phase is in place we have very little Winter here in the Ohio Valley long range forecasters say and so far they are right on.
Forecasters are predicting the La Nina phase will continue through Spring.
Another non Winter as the last five years ? I really don’t know too early to tell.
1976 is another example of a memorable Winter east of the Rockies, despite the fact that a strong La Niǹa was in place. The east coast experienced several “bomb cyclones” (before that term became fashionable…), and nor’easters that dropped several feet of snow.