Good afternoon, everyone. It’s a gray and dreary day across the Commonwealth as we focus on the potential for some snow just before Santa rolls into town later in the coming week. That’s when an arctic front and area of low pressure try to combine forces to deliver our region the elusive White Christmas. Will they succeed in doing so? Time will tell, but it’s the best Christmas look in 10 years.
The overall setup continues to show up in fairly consistent fashion with a deep trough digging into the region. There’s a lot of energy coming together in the upper levels of the atmosphere and how all that gets along will determine how the surface features time out.
The EURO is much more put together in the upper levels on the latest run…
This translates to a much more realistic surface map…
This looks much more like the map I made a few days ago…
The latest GFS also consolidates the energy a bit better, but the progressive nature of the model is at work here. Slow all this down by 12-24 hours…
Here’s how that plays out at the surface…
Again, slow all that down and likely deepen the low going up the Appalachian Mountains.
The Canadian Model in the upper levels is slower…
The Canadian at the surface is still trying to figure out which low to key on…
If we break down the GFS Ensembles, here’s the average snowfall (10-1 ratio) of the 21 members…
Here’s what each member shows to get to the above average…
If we ask the GFS Ensembles to give us the chance of seeing at least 1″ of snow for Christmas, it comes up with these percentages…
Frigid temps show up behind this arctic front…
GFS Christmas Morning lows…
Wind Chills…
Christmas Day high temps…
So let’s take a way too early look at how this may play out…
- Temps on Wednesday surge deep into the 50s on a strong southwest flow ahead of our front. Showers move in from west to east late.
- The arctic front arrives Wednesday night into Christmas Eve morning. Temps quickly drop into the 20s from west to east as winds crank to 40mph.
- Snow develops behind the front as low pressure develops along it. This band of snow would increase as it moves into central and eastern Kentucky during the day.
- How slow or fast this band of snow moves through any one location will be the determining factor on how much accumulation you can get. The slower, the better, obviously.
- As the upper level low swings in Christmas Eve and Day, light snow develops in the frigid air.
- The odds of putting some snow on the ground are pretty high, but I still cannot say if you will see just a coating or several inches. Both are on the table, but so is everything in between those two. 🙂
As I’ve said, take a deep breath and just enjoy the fact we are tracking the potential for some snow around Christmastime. Outside of a few flakes on Christmas in 2017, it’s been 10 years since we had the chance for a true White Christmas. And, the majority of our Christmases during this time have been VERY mild.
I will have another update this evening, so ya’ll come back. Have a good one and take care.
My niece in Richmond says YEAY
ahh we are breathing bailey boy!!!!!! 2-3 inches be a nive look for the holiday.
COMMENT Seems a decent show for some frozen white stuff 🙂
I’m sure by Thursday (Christmas Eve) we will come close as to how much and where in the state of Kentucky the most snow will accumulate ?
Meteorologist says there is enough wind sheer with this system to cause severe weather along the East Coast with very heavy snow to the west.
The same areas that accumulated forty four inches of snow last week may receive the same at the end of next week. Wow, I think they can handle it with all the snowplows they have going.
I would like to see eight inches here statewide for Christmas. Could happen I’ve seen it before, but that was fifty one years ago.
South Central Kentucky could get its first measurable December snow in over a decade, and not even the Bowling Green bubble will stop it.
(Got to think positive!)
Will WKY finally end its snow drought this week or will I have to watch CKY AND EKY get it all? I sure don’t want to have to pull out the first RIP winter this week.
Aww, Russell…now…think positive! I live right smack in the middle of the state(well, almost-Nelson Co.), and I know for FACT that we don’t “get it all”. More often than not, we’re on the fence and get stuck with the ice storm. Like Christmas week 2004. Everyone around us was getting all kinds of snow, but we had hours of freezing rain and sleet, no power for 3 days, but woke up having it Christmas morning, so at least the meal got cooked! Besides, tomorrow is officially the first day of Winter, and that means we’ve got plenty of chances for snow. It looks like the weather Gods are trying to smile on us this time. I hope it holds out, anyway! 🙂
Hope so Debbie!