Good evening, folks. Another light system is diving in from the northwest and this will be with us to kick off Christmas week. The star attraction continues to be the increasing potential for an arctic cold front and low pressure to bring enough snow for us to have a bonified White Christmas. 🎅❄

Let’s start with the system tracking in here late Monday into Tuesday. This is a clipper looking system that only brings a glancing blow of precipitation to Kentucky. The best chance will be across the north and east, but this will be quite the wind maker. Gusts of 35mph may show up.

The system moving in later Wednesday into Christmas Eve Day continues to show up very well and is likely to be fairly well behaved. You guys know my thoughts, we get two shots at a snowfall from this. A band of pretty good snow right behind the front, then with snow with the upper low that sweeps in behind all that.

The GFS is the only late day model run to go out long enough to get both of those events, but it’s still too fast…

Given the cold air behind the front and then the frigid stuff with the upper low, this isn’t going to be a 10-1 ratio snow system. Using the Kuchera Method, we find these totals from that run of the GFS…

THESE ARE COMPUTER MODEL FORECASTS ONLY AND CAN CHANGE DRAMATICALLY FROM RUN TO RUN

Using the same method, here’s what the earlier run of the EURO was seeing…

The Canadian is farther east, but still shows accumulating snow…

The various ENSEMBLES snowfall totals are based solely on a 10-1 ratio, so that’s why they won’t look as much like the above maps…

GFS

EURO

Again, the prospects are high for an accumulating snowfall, but I’m still not ready to talk totals. That will likely come on Monday. Prepare yourself for anything from a coating to several inches and we will go from there. 😏😎😉

The temp plunge behind this front is dramatic late Wednesday into early Thursday…

Then here comes the arctic air for Christmas Eve and Day…

A full update later tonight. Enjoy the rest of the evening and take care.