Good Monday, everyone. It’s Christmas week and we continue to watch the real possibility for snow to be in the air and on the ground by Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. While it’s certainly not etched in stone, it’s the best opportunity we’ve had in a decade. So, if you’re looking for a White Christmas to salvage an otherwise down year, keep throwing out positive vibes. 💪
Before we can get to the chance for Christmas snow, we have a clipper looking system rolling into the region today. This is just giving us a glancing shot of a few showers, with the smallest chance for a flake in the northeast. Here are your radars to follow along…
Winds will be very gusty today and could top 35mph at times. Temps are in the 40s ahead of this boundary sliding in.
The main show continues to arrive in the form of an arctic front and wave of low pressure Wednesday night into Christmas Eve Morning. Before we get to the latest model forecasts, let me share my thoughts on how this may play out…
- Temps on Wednesday surge into the 50s with showers rolling in during the late afternoon and evening.
- Winds gusting in excess of 40mph are a good bet along the front, so those Christmas decorations may get a workout.
- As the front slams in, temps drop quickly into the 20s behind it and may very well cause a quick little freeze up.
- At the same time, a band of snow is likely behind the front. This looks to increase in coverage and intensity the farther east it gets.
- How much snow this produces at any one location depends on how fast this band is moving.
- After this moves through, another round of light snow looks likely Christmas Eve into Christmas morning. Given the very cold air in place, higher ratio snows would show up.
- I’m still not ready to talk specifics for accumulations, so continue to plan on anything from a coating to several inches. 🙂
- Eastern Kentucky has a chance to become our first Winter Storm THREAT in nearly 2 years. 😲
- Arctic cold takes hold as Santa rolls into town. Temps on Christmas may reach single digits for lows with highs that may not hit 20 for some. Gusty winds could push wind chills even lower.
A check of the latest model runs finds the GFS continuing to be the fastest of the models, but the distance between the others is narrowing…
You can see how the best chance for snow is across central and, especially eastern Kentucky.
Here’s the snowfall map from this run…
THESE ARE COMPUTER MODEL FORECASTS ONLY AND CAN CHANGE DRAMATICALLY FROM RUN TO RUN
Here’s a closer look…
The Canadian is finally catching up with the whole scenario…
That brings some smoke for eastern Kentucky.
The EURO has jumped around a lot in recent days. The latest run is actually the most progressive of all the models and shows essentially no light snow from the upper low around here…
If we are scoring the models based solely on run to run consistency, the GFS is by far and away the winner so far.
Here’s the individual forecasts from the 21 member GFS Ensembles…
As you can see, we have some very snowy ones and ones that show very little snow. Here’s the average on all that…
Keep in mind, those are all 10-1 ratios, which will likely be too low given the cold air.
Speaking of the cold, this looks impressive!
Check out the temp drop on the GFS from 7pm Wednesday through 7am Christmas Eve…
The numbers from 7pm Christmas Eve through 7pm Christmas Day are frigid…
Wind chills for the same time…
I will have your normal updates later today. Have a good one and take care.
jump in and hang on its going to be a fun ride
06Z GFS, still has a thumping of snow for central and eastern KY.
Doesn’t look like central Kentucky is going to get much of a snow for Christmas.
I’m beginning now to accept the fact that my last White Christmas was in 2004 in Indiana.
However it will be interesting to track this storm as it dumps more snow in the Northeast.
“Farther East,” Eastern, still saying this is looking more and more like another WKY miss.
Yeah, Russell it looks that way. West Kentucky and central Kentucky receives the most snow when we are in a weak El Nino phase and not La Nina phase.
One meteorologist said that “La Nina is a snow lovers nightmare for the Southeast.”
Good news is that La Nina is expected to weaken in January. Maybe our snow will come in February and March ?
The models are hanging in there. Hopefully they don’t change. If the snow for some reason don’t pan out the cold air is going to be brutal for all.
Folks might need to check out your generators make sure they are ready to go just in case.
Thanks Chris for the information.
The frigid air is expected to be a two day event, which is a good thing for heating your home. However, more active weather in the form of brief windy warm ups is on tap before more cold air filters back in. Just like a yo yo.
I have a Storm Responder Generator that will run a microwave oven, toaster and freezer/refrigerator, but not any heat pumps. I have a blizzard suit to keep warm. LOL
Saving my money to buy a whole house Generator that runs on propane gas.
Hi Chris–and everyone! It’s been a while. It’s been hard for me to comment since mom passed away. But I just wanted to say one thing—if we wind up with snow on the ground at Christmas Day, I would about guarantee my momma, Coffeelady, had something to do with it. I hope you all have a wonderful and very Merry Christmas! Thanks again Chris for all you do.