Good afternoon, everyone. A weak system is dropping in from the northwest today and it’s bringing some light precipitation. The main show continues to be a two-tiered system arriving just in time for Christmas. That’s an arctic front with a wave of low pressure along it and an upper level low spinning in behind that. Both are likely to bring some snow to the region.

Let’s kick things off with your radars to follow today’s action as gusty winds continue…

Let’s rehash my thoughts on the arctic front snow potential…

  • Temps on Wednesday surge into the 50s with showers rolling in during the late afternoon and evening.
  • Winds gusting in excess of 40mph are a good bet along the front, so those Christmas decorations may get a workout.
  • As the front slams in, temps drop quickly into the 20s behind it and may very well cause a quick little freeze up.
  • At the same time, a band of snow is likely behind the front. This looks to increase in coverage and intensity the farther east it gets.
  • How much snow this produces at any one location depends on how fast this band is moving.

Let me focus on who has the best potential to put snow on the ground just from this setup…

This is a rough estimate, but gives a pretty good idea of how this plays out behind this system. How much depends on where you live. The farther west, the lighter the amounts. The farther east, the better the shot for a few-several inches of snow. The area in red may well be upgraded to a WST at some point.

Once that goes through, the upper level low will then dive in with light snow and bursts of heavier snow trying to develop Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. With frigid air in place, we would see the potential for more in the way of accumulations area-wide.

A quick check of the models shows the Canadian Model catching up to what the GFS has been cooking for a while…

Short Range Canadian through 7pm Christmas Eve…

Canadian through the entire event…

Here’s the GFS…

Here’s the snow map from the GFS Ensembles using a 10-1 ratio…

Again, all those maps show what that particular model thinks will fall total. Snowfall maps do not equate snow depth.

I will have the very latest on WKYT starting at 4pm then again on KWC later this evening. Have a good one and take care.