Good afternoon, everyone. Not only does confidence continue to increase for a White Christmas, but my confidence is also increasing for many areas to pick up several inches of snow. For that reason, we now shift into Winter Storm THREAT mode from Wednesday night- Christmas Day.
For those new to what a THREAT is, it simply means the potential is there for 4″+ or more of snow to fall in some areas. If confidence continues to increase, we will upgrade to an ALERT. If confidence decreases, we will enjoy whatever snow falls, regardless.
This is a two-pronged snow system across our region. The first arrives behind the arctic front as cold air crashes in and low pressure develops along the front in the Appalachian Mountains. This is the setup I outlined days ago…
That will provide several hours of heavy snow in a band that increases in coverage and intensity the farther east it gets.
By Christmas Eve and Day, the upper level low is likely to provide much of the state with some high ratio snows and even some snow squalls. Those high ratio events are often underplayed by the models, so the fact the models are seeing this suggests this part of the system could ramp up even more.
Here’s my early look at who has the best chance for 4″+ of snow through Christmas Day…
Again, that’s for the potential to see 4″ or more inches of snow. The westward trend continues to be evident on the models, so that may go a bit west in time.
The WPC has a slight to moderate risk for 4″+ of snow across the eastern half of the state…
The latest models are pretty enthusiastic on this setup…
NAM through 7pm Christmas…
As you can see, the NAM is farthest west with the heaviest snow band.
The Canadian is similar…
The Short Range Canadian Model is showing the snow streaks from the upper low…
The GFS keeps slowing it down some and that’s exactly what I told you guys it would do…
The GFS Ensembles average based on a 10-1 snow ratio…
I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm then again here on KWC this evening. Have a good one and take care.
I’d expect winter storm watches to go up this afternoon for the eastern half of the state if the models continue to hold steady like this!
Eddie Munster says no chance of a white Christmas here. I hope he is wrong.
Thanks for the update Chris.
ole westward trend showing up again.
This event is a little different because the low will be riding a cold front. Also the low has legit cold air to work with. This time east is better than west.If you don’t get any snow then nobody else is going to receive any accumulating snow.
Plan on having you a white Christmas you deserve it.
LOL. Gotta luuuuvvv how the models skirt me in Bardstown by the per usual 12-15 miles on snow accum. Just gotta keep hoping the Nam keeps coming westward and it’s the overall correct model of the lot. But, as I said before, if anything white and frozen is falling from the sky on Christmas Eve or Day, I will be happy! IMHO, I wish we could ALL get a nice big snow for Christmas. I think we have all earned it!
And is anyone else out there (other than my very positive, hopeful self…)thinking this could actually be an overachiever for most of us??! 🙂 (Hey, it’s been a rotten year, guys.A year of uncertainty, a year of pain, suffering, and loss for a lot of us -some of us more than others), but now we have a little bit of something to hope for. It won’t make up for a thing that’s happened this year, but maybe lift our spirits a bit so that we go forward into a New Year full of happiness, health and safety for ALL! <3
That’s some beautiful eye candy for Christmas! Chris, can we get a ‘NAM goes BAM’ tweet? 😉
Suppose we wait to see which model moves towards the other, maybe they meet in the middle? maybe a blizzard? maybe a whiff? Lots of options on the table, and per usual we probably won’t know until hours until it actually happens.
my snow totals doubled in the latest SREF plumes for SE KY, at 6 inches now for Corbin
Of course, the Chicago area will be left out of this totally… maybe a tenth of an inch or two/tenths of an inch of snow if we’re lucky after the cold front passes late Wednesday/early Thursday.
Here we are deep into December, and incredibly, Chicago’s O’Hare Airport has received a scant 0.7 inches of snow for the season, including only a trace of snow in December!
In the last ten years, the Chicago area has had only one White Christmas with at least an inch of snow on the ground all day.
I’m happy for you guys in Kentucky that are going to receive a significant amount of snow from this system. Hopefully it lasts a while and won’t melt right away.
Of course, the Chicago area will receive next-to-nothing from this system, maybe a tenth or two-tenths of an inch of snow if we’re lucky after the cold front passes.
Here we are deep into December, and O’Hare Airport has received a meager 0.7 inches of snow this season, including only a trace amount of snow this month!
I’m happy for you guys in Kentucky that will receive a significant amount of snow from this system.
Of course, the Chicago area will receive next-to-nothing from this system, maybe a tenth or two/tenths of an inch of snow if we’re lucky after the cold front passes.
Testing… I’ve tried posting three times, but none of my posts are showing up. Very frustrating!
A word that has the letters a$$ gets me every time.
ESP: The word a$$ume
I proof-read my comments, none of which contained a word that has a-s-s.
…except for this one.
I can’t figure out what it is I’m writing that the site won’t accept my comments. This never happened with the old version of KWC!
Maybe because the letters weren’t together
Here I will give it a try s-h-I-t
I am sorry u were making that point.
I am on my iPhone without reading glasses.
No, nothing like that.
If we have to carefully read every word we write to make sure the system won’t delete the post for whatever reason, that’s bogus! It was a lot easier to post a comment with the previous version of KWC.
I made a really nice post about an hour ago, and yes, I was logged in, but it didn’t show up.Then when I just got here to see if it had, it said that was NOT logged in?? Okey-dokey.
I checked the box that says to always stay signed in. But mysteriously a few days ago I was no longer signed in. Then when I signed back in, I had to do so twice, and I received an e-mail that said my login was suspicious and I had to verify it was me. Sheesh!!
Let’s try this again.
Of course, the Chicago area will receive barely anything from this system, maybe a few-tenths of an inch or so after the cold front passes.
Let’s try this again.
The Chicago area won’t receive anything from this system, except maybe a few-tenths of an inch of snow if we’re lucky after the cold front passes. Still only 0.7 inches of snow at O’Hare Airport for the season.
So Sorry, you were making that point.
I am on my iPhone without my gla$$es
CB, your cool, but not a fan of the new site. The previous format and ability to post had less of a social media media restriction vibe. It was nice to stop by, post and read. Seems you need to go back to the old format.
That out of the way, this has a decent shot of some frozen white stuff beyond snow globe snow. NE could get smacked again. Seems this might not be a tweener for KY, in that it will either trend more west, or way more east-north east.
Good top see you back, Bubba G. I had some problems with having to restore my account recently but I have never had a post not show up when my account was active.
Regardless – it’s good to see you back and I still admire and appreciate Chris’s work.
Anyway, I’m happy for all you guys in Kentucky that are going to get a significant amount of snow from this system, as here in the Chicago area we’re going to totally miss out.
Question… I know some of you smart people can answer. Chris tweeted that the last nam showed things shifting more west. Soooo.. does that mean precipitation amount will be bigger in Eastern Ky or less in Eastern Ky or what ?
Probably depends on what part of EKY where one calls home.Pikeville was the big winner in earlier runs but snow totals have dropped off.As long as models don’t start showing 200 mile shifts west EKY should receive snow.Really can’t rely on snow maps showing 10 inches of snow but there fun to look at.I’m in no way smarter but just guessing I would say 2-4 with some spots higher..Gfs has also lowered amounts on latest run.
Hopkins, he means the track of the storm is sifting little bit to the west there for eastern ky will still be the sweet spot still. I live far part of western ky by the Ohio River and I think we’re are slim to none of getting any .
Winterlover we live a whole state apart. I live on Ky, Va line. Lol
Thank you for your answer.
You welcome sir, hope you get the white stuff. Merry Christmas and God Bless